FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I saw 14 snow flakes. OOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z GEM was pretty good for PDX. 850mb -15c to -16cCold, then what do we have here? A nice 1000mb low off southern Oregon Coast with strong, very cold easterly wind through the Gorge. Sure looks like a Snow/Ice storm to me. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_090_0000.gif Yeah that would be snow for a pretty long duration, followed by sleet, then freezing rain. ECMWF has led the way in all of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z GEM was pretty good for PDX. 850mb -15c to -16cCold, then what do we have here? A nice 1000mb low off southern Oregon Coast with strong, very cold easterly wind through the Gorge. Sure looks like a Snow/Ice storm to me. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_090_0000.gifWhoa, thats a recipe for a big snowstorm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I had SEA at 37/25 in the contest for today. SEA is already at 34 after a low of 28. I am VERY concerned that I was too cold for today. I have a cold bias so that is to be expected. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z ECMWF is very cold, followed by moisture very early on Saturday. Cold air still in place, huge snow and ice storm for most of the western lowlands. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/f96.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 My Dad says it has been snowing in Stayton all morning, snowing moderately there now. Looking at radar it looks like there is a fairly stationary shower right over them. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I am not even paying attention to the GFS until 2 days out. It's warm bias in the upper troposphere is showing and it's having it's monthly major fail right now. It might take until tonights 00z run for the GFS to get it's act together. It's been awful lately. The Euro is finally getting itself together after a couple months of failing. GGEM has been the model to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's been awful lately. The Euro is finally getting itself together after a couple months of failing. GGEM has been the model to watch.GEM was the superior model in the December event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I like IR Loop and the trajectory of the arctic air mass in eastern BC, Alberta, and up in NWT heading right for us.http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I like IR Loop and the trajectory of the arctic air mass in eastern BC, Alberta, and up in NWT heading right for us.http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12Not unreasonable to see how a low could kick off about 50/140 and move inland like last nights gfs showed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 12Z ECMWF sure turns ugly in the long range. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 12Z ECMWF sure turns ugly in the long range.Solid 2-4" snowstorm Saturday for just about everybody though. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 12Z ECMWF sure turns ugly in the long range.Yup! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 GEM was the superior model in the December event. Absolutely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Going to make a bold prediction. This weekend most widespread snow event for salem north to Canadian border since 2008. Terrible ice storm for the Portland area to follow. Large area of 3-8 inches in area talked about. Would not be surprised at all to see over a foot around the canal. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 And I hope jesse gets a foot of snow with 100mph winds. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Going to make a bold prediction. This weekend most widespread snow event for salem north to Canadian border since 2008. Terrible ice storm for the Portland area to follow. Large area of 3-8 inches in area talked about. Would not be surprised at all to see over a foot around the canal. I agree with your statements. The models are always too aggressive with warming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I agree with your statements. The models are always too aggressive with warming.Yep, and there will be massive cold air to tap in eastern wa. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yep, and there will be massive cold air to tap in eastern wa. For PDX, I am thinking around 6" followed by ice for a long duration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Snow starting to pick up now in the PDX area. Radar is filling up fast. This is a good sign for this weekend. The ECMWF tends to underestimate precip so the leading edge of that system coming early Saturday might come sooner than expected and heavier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinook Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 And I hope jesse gets a foot of snow with 100mph winds. he'll get nothing and like it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRG Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 So THIS is where all the cool kids hang out! Geeze, I step away from Western for a month and everyone disappears! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 he'll get nothing and like it.BOOO. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 So THIS is where all the cool kids hang out! Geeze, I step away from Western for a month and everyone disappears! Welcome to the playground. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Severe flurries in sw portland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm nervous. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm nervous. I could tell. Fingers shaking on the key board? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Pretty good snow shower here. Not really sticking since it is 35. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinook Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 McMinnville area. Snow shower passing through. Big flakes. Temperature @ 35f. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm nervous. As nervous as Manning was on Sunday? We are going to get slammed this weekend! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Light snow falling here in Salem, my car thermometer said 36. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like BLI has a shot at a sub-freezing high 28 at noon. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 13 in Spokane 22 in Moses Lake with brisk NE winds... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just in the last couple of minutes the snow has begun to stick here in Salem. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's pretty surprising to see the temperature continue to climb upwards even with the snow falling. Mark mentioned how the models overdid the cold. Models have overdone the cold air banked up against the east side of the Cascades. The WRF-GFS showed 5,000′ temps around zero to +5 by this morning on the east side of the north Oregon Cascades. Instead it’s 13 and 12 at Timberline and Meadows. Oops… The other is that models obviously have overdone the cold air at the surface in general. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bham_Guy Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like BLI has a shot at a sub-freezing high 28 at noon. Sub-freezing looks good. With increasing clouds there is an outside shot at sub 30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Doubt we get out of the 30s today here in Salem...I didn't think it was going to be much colder than this today. The WRF was obviously overblown. It was spitting out highs of 22 at PDX. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 Doubt we get out of the 30s today here in Salem...I didn't think it was going to be much colder than this today. The WRF was obviously overblown. It was spitting out highs of 22 at PDX. Drives me crazy when Jim uses the WRF to predict highs in these situations. You can add 10 degrees at least almost every time. And then everyone rips the MOS guidance like its wrong all the time and always ridiculously warm. GFS MOS had 37 at SEA today... its 37 right now. Its not that bad. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhill Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 FWIW, 18z NAM moves up timing and is warmer...to continue with the trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 4, 2014 Report Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z NAM adds to the parade of uncertainty. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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