February 2014 in the PNW

[Perturbance]

You are going to have a fun next couple of days!

 

I honestly haven't been watching lead up to this too much until this point.  Being far enough away from the gorge, I expected to get cold but not really cold, and by the time any precip fell, southerly winds would have scoured out any remaining cold air.

 

Hopefully the weekend precip can spread the joy further north!

 

Still waiting for the 9 am AFD for Portland to hear their thoughts.

[The Swamp]

Nothing to here to see for folks in Washington. Carry on.

 

I'm still thinking precip moves north. Tacoma to Portland.

[FroYoBro]

I honestly haven't been watching lead up to this too much until this point.  Being far enough away from the gorge, I expected to get cold but not really cold, and by the time any precip fell, southerly winds would have scoured out any remaining cold air.

 

Hopefully the weekend precip can spread the joy further north!

 

Still waiting for the 9 am AFD for Portland to hear their thoughts.

Well, the system on Thursday will not scour out the cold for you guys. You probably be in the sweet spot for that storm. You will probably warm up by Saturday night, but not before you have at least a half of foot of snow. on the ground. 

[Jesse]

24 at PDX the last hourly reading, with wind gusts over 40mph. Windchill of 7 there. Pretty brutal.

 

If the winds keep up like that they will have difficulty rising out of the 20s today.

[Guest Winterdog]

Official low at Arlington was 12F this morning.  I bottomed out at 20F with gusty east winds.  This is starting to look like this could be another totally dry event for us northerners.  My congrats to western Oregon for kicking western Washington's butt all winter long.

[Jesse]

This turning out colder than recently modeled so far. 850s are currently -13c over PDX, -17c out here, -19c in The Dalles.

 

Nice area of sub -20c 850s over eastern WA. This cold air is going to be tough to get rid of.

[Thunderhill]

This turning out colder than recently modeled so far. 850s are currently -13c over PDX, -17c out here, -19c in The Dalles.

 

Nice area of sub -20c 850s over eastern WA. This cold air is going to be tough to get rid of.

Jesse, at work right now or I'd look...how does the canadian look?

[brody]

Jesse, at work right now or I'd look...how does the canadian look?

Go back to page 80 and have a look, Tim ( TT-Sea) posted it out to 144 hrs

[Thunderhill]

Thank you, missed that

Go back to page 80 and have a look, Tim ( TT-Sea) posted it out to 144 hrs

[BLI snowman]

Jesse, at work right now or I'd look...how does the canadian look?

 

Canadian is epic for Oregon. Tons of snow down there from Thursday through Saturday. Lows just parked off the OR coast.

[Thunderhill]

New PDX AFD

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/display_special_product_versions.php?sid=pqr&pil=afd

[BLI snowman]

12z Euro looks much further north with the Thursday night/Friday morning stuff, even giving Seattle an inch or so while NW OR gets buried.

 

Then looks much weaker with the Saturday storm, and further south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z Euro looks much further north with the Thursday night/Friday morning stuff, even giving Seattle an inch or so while NW OR gets buried.

 

Then looks much weaker with the Saturday storm, and further south.

 

I'll go with that.

[Thunderhill]

PaulB from Fox12 blog says:

 

Euro through 102h:
EUG 9.5″
CVO 11.2″
SLE 9.6″
PDX 6″

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As of 10am PDX is at 25, I doubt they hit freezing.

 

SLE at 29, probably a high in the 34-35 range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PaulB from Fox12 blog says:

 

Euro through 102h:

EUG 9.5″

CVO 11.2″

SLE 9.6″

PDX 6″

 

Holy hell.

[Thunderhill]

PaulB from Fox12 blog says:

 

Euro through 102h:

EUG 9.5″

CVO 11.2″

SLE 9.6″

PDX 6″

 

He also says Euro shows 2-3 in for PDX tomorrow night.

[FroYoBro]

Well, looks like all of this model watching is going to pay off. I don't see how Portland escapes through Sunday without at least 2 inches. 

[Thunderhill]

Holy hell.

While that would spell fun for PDX, it definitely gives you a heck of a 4 day stretch there.

[weather girl]

Sounds like we still need it to shift just a ***little*** bit north. Boy, this is almost tough to watch.

[GobBluth]

Holy hell.

Amazing how the Central and South valley is going to score big time again. Euro looks almost exactly like the GEM.

[weather girl]

Oops. Sorry. Scratch that.

[HighlandExperience]

The EURO looks farther north with the perciptation. Hopefully that trend continues. I'm not liking what the other models show for us in WA.

[Snow]

Thank you God! 12z ECMWF 4am Friday Morning.

 

http://oi57.tinypic.com/2m2xbo7.jpg

[Deweydog]

PDX running one degree colder than Bham at 11am.

 

Does anything in this world make sense anymore???

[Parksvillewx]

Euro looks dry up my way until at least Tuesday.

[HighlandExperience]

Euro looks dry up my way until at least Tuesday.

 

Funny, becuase just the other day some models were showing you guys getting slammed with close to a foot of snow. I wouldn't be so confident in anything right now.

[brody]

Thank you God! 12z ECMWF 4am Friday Morning.

 

http://oi57.tinypic.com/2m2xbo7.jpg

Well this is encouraging

[Thunderhill]

Marks RPM model.http://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/rpm_snow_4amfri.png

[Snow]

Well this is encouraging

 

Yeah, plus the ECMWF tends to under estimate heavy precipitation. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO and RPM seem to put my location as ground zero for this storm.

 

SLE up to 31, PDX only 26, they may not get out of the 20s today!

[GobBluth]

I give the NWS a lot of credit for being frank with the confusing set up:

 

.UPDATE....GETTING A BIT MORE NERVOUS THAT THE NORTHWARD TREND OF
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION MAY BE A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD. THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMING IN WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AGAIN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WILL ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND NAM STILL KEEP
THE FOCUS SOUTH. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN HOW THE
UPPER LOW EVOLVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. NOW ITS GOING OFFSHORE
AND OPENING THE DOOR TO VORT MAXES TO ITS SOUTH. WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WONT SNOW IN THE VALLEY
TOMOORROW...AND WE SAW THAT THE LAST FEW DAYS HOW EASY IT WAS TO
RING OUT FLURRIES OUT OF WEAK FORCING. ABOUT THE BEST MESSAGE I CAN
PUT OUT NOW IS...RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SNOW TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS ARE LOW.
WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA THAT THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SOUTH BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS. I WISH I COULD BE MORE SPECIFIC THAN
THAT. /KMD

[Snow]

Great statement by the NWS.

 

UPDATE….GETTING A BIT MORE NERVOUS THAT THE NORTHWARD TREND OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD. THE 12Z ECMWF IS COMING IN WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AGAIN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND WILL ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND NAM STILL KEEP THE FOCUS SOUTH.

 

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN HOW THE UPPER LOW EVOLVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. NOW ITS GOING OFFSHORE AND OPENING THE DOOR TO VORT MAXES TO ITS SOUTH. WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE HAVE NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT WONT SNOW IN THE VALLEY TOMORROW…AND WE SAW THAT THE LAST FEW DAYS HOW EASY IT WAS TO RING OUT FLURRIES OUT OF WEAK FORCING. 

 

They are right, if yesterday can produce flurries, there is no question tomorrow will produce snow in the Valley everywhere. I am thinking even up to Kelso. It wont shock me if we see extremely high snow totals as the moisture just stalls and sits right over the Valley.

[Parksvillewx]

Funny, becuase just the other day some models were showing you guys getting slammed with close to a foot of snow. I wouldn't be so confident in anything right now.

 

Ya, who knows what to believe.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I"m getting real ******* nervous now.

[brody]

I"m getting real ******* nervous now.

No Joke

[Sometimesdylan]

After this snow is done, I'm going back to the old forum to re-read all of the "winter over" posts.

 

All you gotta do is go to the January thread 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still only 25 here in blazing sunshine. This is a cold airmass.

[HighlandExperience]

I"m getting real ******* nervous now.

 

later runs of the EURO will be critical. Hopefully it will trend north even more

[brody]

All you gotta do is go to the January thread 

Dont even have to go back that far, go back approx. 7 pages in this thread