2015-2016 el Niño Watch/Discussion

[Tom]

ENSO 3.4 region cooking...ENSO 1.2 about 0.92C cooler

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[gosaints]

1.2 rose last week along with 3.4. Cdas has been way off in 1.2

[Tom]

1.2 rose last week along with 3.4. Cdas has been way off in 1.2

CDAS does show the slight rise last week though...it has since cooled the last few days...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

[Geos]

Was just watching a video put out by the NWS in Binghamton, NY. Met hosting the video saying convection across the 3.4 region will likely migrate west.

Discusses overall pattern change.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/NWSBinghamton/videos/1035431629852814/?theater

[Tom]

SOI has just had the biggest rise yet...pretty impressive and a sign this El Nino may start weakening quite a bit:

 

 

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 24 Dec 2015

Average for last 30 days -10.70

Average for last 90 days -12.25

Daily contribution to SOI calculation 30.72
 

[Tom]

Rapid decline in the ENSO 1.2 region...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ssta_c.gif

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

 

JMA Weeklies last week suggested convection near the central Pacific where the warmest waters are heading...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201512.D3012_gl0.png

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201512.D3012_gl0.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

[Tom]

SCRIPPS updated their ENSO forecast for next Autumn/Winter...

 

Sept-Nov..

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-01_for_2016-09.jpg

 

 

Dec-Feb...

 

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-01_for_2016-12.jpg

 

 

That's a super La Nina!  Might be another interesting Winter next season.

[OKwx2k4]

That's just crazy. Will definitely be interesting.

[gosaints]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

 

rapid decline???  Have only been hearing calls for that since november...

[Geos]

SCRIPPS updated their ENSO forecast for next Autumn/Winter...

 

Sept-Nov..

 

 

 

Dec-Feb...

 

 

 

That's a super La Nina!  Might be another interesting Winter next season.

 

Was just reading more about what a la Niña does to the jet stream. It weakens it and makes it hard for Pacific air to flood penetrate far into the North American continent. With low solar activity we could be looking at a winter 13-14 redux.

[Maxim]

Was just reading more about what a la Niña does to the jet stream. It weakens it and makes it hard for Pacific air to flood penetrate far into the North American continent. With low solar activity we could be looking at a winter 13-14 redux.

pretty bold call there

[OKwx2k4]

Was just reading more about what a la Niña does to the jet stream. It weakens it and makes it hard for Pacific air to flood penetrate far into the North American continent. With low solar activity we could be looking at a winter 13-14 redux.

As I said before, definitely going to be interesting to see the transition and the weather to follow it. I have a few ideas about the QBO and ENSO phase that I'm looking forward to seeing how or whether they play out or not.

[Geos]

pretty bold call there

 

It's a fact that the stronger the la Niña, the weaker the jet stream is. And when the Pacific jet stream isn't stronger, the cold dense air from Canada can travel easily into the nation.

Some climatologist have been saying the winter of 2016-17 will be the start of some brutal winters as we go deeper into a type of maunder minimum.

[OKwx2k4]

It's a fact that the stronger the la Niña, the weaker the jet stream is. And when the Pacific jet stream isn't stronger, the cold dense air from Canada can travel easily into the nation.

Some climatologist have been saying the winter of 2016-17 will be the start of some brutal winters as we go deeper into a type of maunder minimum.

I'm not quite as sold on that theory (new maunder minimum) as some are. However, if you were to look at the long term (1895-present) 5 year running mean temperatures would show 30-40 year cycles in winter temperatures. We recently exited a 40 year warm cycle and are at a midpoint. That's not to say that there won't be above average winters mixed in but the overall trend should be below average temperatures over the central US during winters ahead. If I can find a link to the chart I have, I will edit and add it to this post at a later time.

[Niko]

For some who have questions about La Nina or El Nino, this might answer some of your questions:

 

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html

[OKwx2k4]

For some who have questions about La Nina or El Nino, this might answer some of your questions:

 

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html

That's a great link for those who don't understand what is going on with the ENSO state. BUT, I'd advise caution when assuming a "typical" Niño response. There's no such thing and someone who says so is just too lazy to do their D**n homework on causation.

[Tom]

ENSO 1.2 in the tank now and ENSO 3.4 rockets higher....crazy

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

 

The entire central basin continues to torch but is now clearly shifting towards the dateline near 150W.  Convection will also continue to blossom.

 

 

[Geos]

It kind of makes sense that the warming is shifting west. The upwelling has commenced again along the South American coast. Soon region 4 will rise as the warm pool shifts towards its normal position by Papua New Guinea.

[gosaints]

Dont look for the jet to slow any time remotely soon

[Tom]

Dont look for the jet to slow any time remotely soon

Seasonal weakening is inevitable once we get into Feb.

[gosaints]

Seasonal weakening is inevitable once we get into Feb.

When the mechanism that is driving the jet weakens sure..  Even so there will be lag time on that.  It wont weaken just because its suppose to every february.

[OKwx2k4]

When the mechanism that is driving the jet weakens sure.. Even so there will be lag time on that. It wont weaken just because its suppose to every february.

Doesn't really matter if the jet is over southern Mexico and Florida anyway.

[gosaints]

Doesn't really matter if the jet is over southern Mexico and Florida anyway.

As systems zip through a hundred miles an hour...

[OKwx2k4]

As systems zip through a hundred miles an hour...

Yep. Unless it's an apocalyptic rainstorm over my house of course. Lol. Then it takes its sweet time.

[OKwx2k4]

The jet and anomalous PNA are to major reasons I'm getting irked with people saying that everything that's happened to date are caused by el nino. There really hasn't been anything typical about it so far in my opinion.

[gosaints]

The jet and anomalous PNA are to major reasons I'm getting irked with people saying that everything that's happened to date are caused by el nino. There really hasn't been anything typical about it so far in my opinion.

Everything no for sure not but do you think the jet isnt being driven by the ragging pacific???

[WildWisconsinWeather]

The jet and anomalous PNA are to major reasons I'm getting irked with people saying that everything that's happened to date are caused by el nino. There really hasn't been anything typical about it so far in my opinion.

 

???

 

El Ninos typically promote +PNAs, which is what we've seen for the vast majority of this winter.  I'm not sure why you lumped the PNA as being anomalous so far this winter?

[OKwx2k4]

???

 

El Ninos typically promote +PNAs, which is what we've seen for the vast majority of this winter. I'm not sure why you lumped the PNA as being anomalous so far this winter?

Am I wrong or has there not been a trough stuck in the west for most of the first half of the winter with a ridge in the east? If that's not a -PNA signature more typical of La Nina I don't know what is.

[OKwx2k4]

Everything no for sure not but do you think the jet isnt being driven by the ragging pacific???

Oh I know that it is for sure. Not even a close argument there. Very atypical to see it suppressed so far to the south though.

[Tom]

It's going to be fascinating to see how quickly the oceanic waters cool this summer.  You can see the colder waters below are about to upwell to the surface.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[gosaints]

It's going to be fascinating to see how quickly the oceanic waters cool this summer.  You can see the colder waters below are about to upwell to the surface.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

About time.... Some thought this would be way more rapid to happen

[Geos]

Cold water making a move towards the first 50 m of the ocean now.^

 

Cooling is becoming widespread now.

 

[OKwx2k4]

It's amazing how much more cold water is surfacing all over the oceans on a week-to-week basis even. The ssta maps look nothing similar to what they did back in December.

[Tom]

Something to ponder about for next Fall/Winter season...

 

Current SST's in N PAC...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

GEFS in the longer range showing what happens when you establish a GOA trough/NW NAMER ridge...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032106/gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_47.png

 

 

JAMSTEC trying to show very similar SST's next season in N PAC...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2016.1feb2016.gif

 

Will it produce the same result with a La Nina???  Should be an interesting weather pattern next season.

[OKwx2k4]

Not saying anything definitive yet (obviously) but 1878-79 type of winter for next year seems to be a logical place to start thinking at this point given the incredible similarities in 15-16 to El Niño of 1877-78. Data is pretty sparse on these years also. Makes it pretty hard to study them.