August 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I'm almost in disbelief at how nicely the models have trended.

 

Not used to having deep troughing pan out after the last 18 months.

 

Could be a fire season ending rainfall for the region.

[stuffradio]

I might survive the flood of September 2015.

[BLI snowman]

I'm almost in disbelief at how nicely the models have trended.

 

Not used to having deep troughing pan out after the last 18 months.

 

Could be a fire season ending rainfall for the region.

 

Likely will be a long payoff for this come mid September to mid October. Lots of dry heat in that period.

[Jesse]

Likely will be a long payoff for this come mid September to mid October. Lots of dry heat in that period.

OK.

 

You would have said humid heat if you wanted to go for maximum upset-Jesse points.

 

Trolling fail.

[BLI snowman]

OK.

 

You would have said humid heat if you wanted to go for maximum upset-Jesse points.

 

Trolling fail.

 

Dry heat + warm blob induced lows. Theme of 2015 so far. 

 

Summer really doesn't end until about October 10 in NW OR anyways. Lots of 85+ events have happened in that early October timeframe. It'll take a few more months for the river and lake temps to get remotely cool, also.

[Jesse]

Dry heat + warm blob induced lows. Theme of 2015 so far.

 

Summer really doesn't end until about October 10 in NW OR anyways. Lots of 85+ events have happened in that early October timeframe. It'll take a few more months for the river and lake temps to get remotely cool, also.

A little better. 6/10.

 

Didn't you predict a cold October?

[luminen]

Here's a pic I took of the sunset near YVR two days ago, on my cell phone:

[BLI snowman]

A little better. 6/10.

 

Didn't you predict a cold October?

 

I'm just being a cold hard, conservative realist.

 

Nasty thing is that even a cool September generally means a week or more in the 80s for you. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is crazy wet for Friday night and Saturday for all of western WA and OR.

 

http://s4.postimg.org/4e8e7kdcc/ecmwf.jpg

[Jesse]

I'm just being a cold hard, conservative realist.

 

Nasty thing is that even a cool September generally means a week or more in the 80s for you.

You are trying to use reverse psychology on the weather.

 

Nothing nasty about a week in the 80s with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s at some point in September. I'm a hiker/camper so I appreciate that kind of thing. Rain all month would be no fun, obviously. Although not as bad as the humid crap we got the first half of the last two Septembers. Seasonable with some troughing and wet systems sprinkled throughout is pretty nice.

[GobBluth]

You are trying to use reverse psychology on the weather.

 

Nothing nasty about a week in the 80s with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s at some point in September. I'm a hiker/camper so I appreciate that kind of thing. Rain all month would be no fun, obviously. Although not as bad as the humid crap we got the first half of the last two Septembers. Seasonable with some troughing and wet systems sprinkled throughout is pretty nice.

I'm mentally prepared for the storm to underperform the models as it has for nearly the last year.

[Jesse]

I'm mentally prepared for the storm to underperform the models as it has for nearly the last year.

 

Same here. I think the last 18 months have emotionally scarred most active weather enthusiasts. Especially Justin.

[BLI snowman]

You are trying to use reverse psychology on the weather.

 

Nothing nasty about a week in the 80s with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s at some point in September. I'm a hiker/camper so I appreciate that kind of thing. Rain all month would be no fun, obviously. Although not as bad as the humid crap we got the first half of the last two Septembers. Seasonable with some troughing and wet systems sprinkled throughout is pretty nice.

 

I'm not too invested in what the weather does or doesn't do at this juncture of the year. I'll care more in October when fog, crispiness, and cyclogenesis become a real life possibility again.

 

Another important note: September 2013 wasn't crap. That was a rare dynamic stretch of weather for our region. I hope you really soaked it in when it occurred. 

[Jesse]

I'm not too invested in what the weather does or doesn't do at this juncture of the year. I'll care more in October when fog, crispiness, and cyclogenesis become a real life possibility again.

 

Another important note: September 2013 wasn't crap. That was a rare dynamic stretch of weather for our region. I hope you really soaked it in when it occurred.

The overall pattern in September 2013 was fun. All of the lows in the 60s at the beginning of the month were annoying, but all in all a very dynamic month with a very warm first half and a very cool second half, and a ton of precip throughout.

 

September 2014, on the other hand, was an utter sh*t stain of a month. I think we can all agree there.

[BLI snowman]

The overall pattern in September 2013 was fun. All of the lows in the 60s at the beginning of the month were annoying, though. All in all a very dynamic month though we a very warm first half and a very cool second half, with a ton of precip throughout.

 

September 2014, on the other hand, was an utter sh*t stain of a month. I think we can all agree there.

 

Yeah, big heavy thunderstorm events suck. I prefer our normal drizzle. 

 

As best as I can recall, the mild, sunny pleasantness wore out its welcome for me in roughly mid September 2014. The welcome mat has yet to be brought back out.

[Jesse]

Yeah, big heavy thunderstorm events suck. I prefer our normal drizzle. 

 

As best as I can recall, the mild, sunny pleasantness wore out its welcome for me in roughly mid September 2014. The welcome mat has yet to be brought back out.

 

To date, August-October 2014 was my single least favorite three month period ever here. Hands down.

[stuffradio]

To date, August-October 2014 was my single least favorite three month period ever here. Hands down.

Me too. I had so much rain. Not so much August in August, but it started September.

[Jesse]

OLM almost hit 30s this morning!

[Deweydog]

OLM almost hit 30s this morning!

Blob blocked!

[TT-SEA]

76 degrees at SEA with a dewpoint of 45 and a deep blue sky. Can't wait for this miserable weather to end. It's so horrible out there!

[Abbotsford_wx]

OLM almost hit 30s this morning!

 

When is their first freeze on average?

 

I've never fully understood how they get so cold. Has anyone ever done a write up on that?

[Front Ranger]

I'm just being a cold hard, conservative realist.

 

Nasty thing is that even a cool September generally means a week or more in the 80s for you. 

 

This summer has been fairly similar to 1941. I believe you've pointed that out yourself a couple times. Jesse would have a weenie-gasm if we saw a Sep 1941 redux.

 

The warmest PDX got was 80, on one day. The month began with a fall-tastic 62/57 day, recording .96" of rain. The last third of the month saw a stretch with lows in the 40-45 range for the Portland area, and then it ended with a raw, wet day that didn't get out of the 50s.

[Front Ranger]

When is their first freeze on average?

 

I've never fully understood how they get so cold. Has anyone ever done a write up on that?

 

It is a pristine place, untouched by the evils of urbanization.

 

That is why.

[Abbotsford_wx]

It is a pristine place, untouched by the evils of urbanization.

 

That is why.

 

That might be one factor, but there has to be more to it than that. No place in the Fraser Valley sees those kind of anomalies, and there are many very rural areas here. It's also very similar topographically.

[Jesse]

That might be one factor, but there has to be more to it than that. No place in the Fraser Valley sees those kind of anomalies, and there are many very rural areas here. It's also very similar topographically.

It also has a bit of elevation and seems to be a location that favors a quick die off of winds in the evening.

 

Either that or Flatiron goes down there every few weeks and dumps a bag of ice on the sensor.

[Deweydog]

That might be one factor, but there has to be more to it than that. No place in the Fraser Valley sees those kind of anomalies, and there are many very rural areas here. It's also very similar topographically.

Microclimates. Some are better and more radiationally coducive to biases than others.

 

Seriously, though, Olympia is not particularly out of sync with other similar locations, like Shelton, Toledo, etc. The physical properties of radiational cooling will exist 100 even warmer years from now.

[Front Ranger]

That might be one factor, but there has to be more to it than that. No place in the Fraser Valley sees those kind of anomalies, and there are many very rural areas here. It's also very similar topographically.

 

It's just in a good radiational cooling spot away from the city. Not really influenced by water and on the north end of the Chehalis gap.

 

Other examples in western WA are Arlington airport in the north Sound and McChord in the Tacoma area. Calm winds, low dew points, and clear skies go a bit further some places.

 

It's a shame we haven't got to see OLM get deep snow cover, clear skies, and calm winds for awhile. Arlington got that I believe in 2008 and managed a -4. And of course there was the -10 or whatever EUG saw a couple years ago.

[ShawniganLake]

It's just in a good radiational cooling spot away from the city. Not really influenced by water and on the north end of the Chehalis gap.

 

Other examples in western WA are Arlington airport in the north Sound and McChord in the Tacoma area. Calm winds, low dew points, and clear skies go a bit further some places.

 

It's a shame we haven't got to see OLM get deep snow cover, clear skies, and calm winds for awhile. Arlington got that I believe in 2008 and managed a -4. And of course there was the -10 or whatever EUG saw a couple years ago.

I believe Nanaimo (YCD) tied their all-time record low that night, -4F as well.  December 20th I think. 

[Skagit Weather]

When is their first freeze on average?

 

I've never fully understood how they get so cold. Has anyone ever done a write up on that?

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/02/olympia-mystery.html

[DareDuck]

And of course there was the -10 or whatever EUG saw a couple years ago.

That was a memorable night in a poorly insulated house. I swear our house was in the upper 30s. Was concerned about our pipes. Fortunately nothing happened.

[Jesse]

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/02/olympia-mystery.html

He forgot to mention the part about it being a vast conspiracy designed to puzzle Canadians.

[BLI snowman]

It's just in a good radiational cooling spot away from the city. Not really influenced by water and on the north end of the Chehalis gap.

 

Other examples in western WA are Arlington airport in the north Sound and McChord in the Tacoma area. Calm winds, low dew points, and clear skies go a bit further some places.

 

It's a shame we haven't got to see OLM get deep snow cover, clear skies, and calm winds for awhile. Arlington got that I believe in 2008 and managed a -4. And of course there was the -10 or whatever EUG saw a couple years ago.

 

OLM pulled off a pretty sexy low of 5 in February 2011 with some snowcover assistance. Otherwise you probably have to go back to December 1998's -1 to find a really standout radiational cooling event there. The 14 in October 2002 was also pretty impressive.

[stuffradio]

The GFS is insane. It gives me half a foot of rain by next week.

[TT-SEA]

Going to be a lengthy troughy/cool/damp period ahead.

 

The west will be under a full-latitude trough while the Midwest and East bake.   For likely the next 10 days or more.   

[Phil]

July PDO came in at +1.84, highest July reading since 1997.

[Deweydog]

July PDO came in at +1.84, highest July reading since 1997.

Breaking news!

[stuffradio]

Wow, how often do the Euro ensemble means give higher precip amounts than the deterministic? I haven't seen that before.

[Phil]

Going to be a lengthy troughy/cool/damp period ahead.

 

The west will be under a full-latitude trough while the Midwest and East bake. For likely the next 10 days or more.

What a terrible way to begin autumn over the lower 48.

 

It's almost weird seeing legitimate western troughing on the models. That ridge has dominated you guys for what seems like an eternity.

 

The SE ridge has also been persistent this summer. We've already had 45 90+ days. PDX has nothing on DCA.

[TT-SEA]

It's almost weird seeing legitimate western troughing on the models. That ridge has dominated you guys for what seems like an eternity.

 

The SE ridge has also been persistent this summer. We've already had 45 90+ days. PDX has nothing on DCA.

 

 

Nothing indeed.

[Front Ranger]

July PDO came in at +1.84, highest July reading since 1997.

 

Not surprising. August should feature a sizable drop.