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12/10 to 12/11 Upper Midwest Snow Storm


bud2380
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Of course, models show any defo tail snow moving through the CR/IC area will be after midnight so I can barely watch it.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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DVN with a solid write up

 

Friday and Saturday...All eyes turn to the looming l/w trof energy
pushing east acrs the Rockies and potential deepening LLVL low
ejecting out somewhere acrs the upper Midwest. The latest run medium
range models and ensembles continue to vary somewhat from each other
and previous trends, but the 12z deterministic GFS continues it`s
northern pan-handle hooker path SW-to-NE acrs bisecting the CWA,
maybe a touch further southeast than previous runs and trending
toward some GEFS ensembles. This path would place the local area
largely in-between heavy rain and thunderstorms to the southeast
acrs the lower MS RVR Valley, TN and OH RVR Valleys late Friday into
early Sat, while a winter storm/heavy snow swath lays out acrs
portions of NE/SD/northwest IA/MN and northern WI. We may be
partially warm-sectored with showers and possible thunder, with
temps in the 50s to near 60 acrs the southeast half of the DVN CWA
Friday.  The northwestern 1/4 of the CWA would eventually be subject
to getting clipped with some lighter wrap-around or def zone wind-
whipped snows later Friday night and Sat morning. All this while the
12z ECMWF is further southeast with the sfc low path along and just
southeast of the DVN CWA with a deepening sfc low approaching 993 MB
just east of Chicago by 06z Sat. The Euro`s path while still laying
out the brunt of the heavy snow track northwest of the CWA, would
still produce advisory level snows acrs at least the northwest third
of the DVN CWA later FRiday night into early Sat, especially taking
into account 15 to 25 MPH winds acrs those areas with the snow.
Several ensembles favor the latest ECMWF path, and will have to
watch phasing and timing trends in later runs over the next 24-36
hours.
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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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RDPS is in the north camp, has almost nothing in Waterloo.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS nearly the same, just a hair of southward expansion.

snku_024h.us_mw.png

 

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Correct. Regional version of the GEM. Their version of the 12k NAM iiuc

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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NAM seems S. At least for The Mitt

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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