November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Never heard of that theory. How strong is the correlation?

 

Typical November day today, blustery high of 51°. Set to freeze tonight for the first time this month.

It's another name for the Typhoon Rule

[Tom]

I dunno about you guys, but I could do a whole season tracking bomb after bomb!

 

00z GGEM...Oh Fantasy Land do come true...Manifest!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015110800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015110800/gem_asnow_us_40.png

[gabel23]

I dunno about you guys, but I could do a whole season tracking bomb after bomb!

 

00z GGEM...Oh Fantasy Land do come true...Manifest!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015110800/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015110800/gem_asnow_us_40.png

00Z GFS still has this, just not much cold air and location is pretty similar. I'm hoping the EURO plays ball too. I'm liking how the long range models are picking up bombs; regardless where they end up I could go a whole winter with these storms! I have been impressed with models lately; they have been pretty consistent with storm systems appearing in long range and actually occurring. 

[OKwx2k4]

Finally checking my first frost off the list down here this morning! It's beautiful! :-)

[Tom]

Finally checking my first frost off the list down here this morning! It's beautiful! :-)

We had a heavy Frost this morning up here as well.  I'd say my tree is about 80% leaf free and most tree's on my block prob have another week or two before they are completely bare, especially after the wind/whipped storm that is poised to hit us this week.

 

ORD finally had a hard freeze this season and made it down to 28F.

 

00z Euro showing another monster 994mb storm ejecting out into the Plains/Midwest Day 9-10.  Since Oct 27th/28th, we have seen the remnants of Hurricane Patricia hit the southern Plains/Lakes which was a powerful system and now it looks like the pattern is turning real stormy with 2 powerhouse storms on the horizon.  First one this week, then another 4-5 days later.  This Strong El Nino is going into overdrive.

 

The 2nd system next week looks like it may be the lead system that taps into the Blocking and changes the entire pattern in the lower 48.  This is right about the time when both the AO/NAO turn negative.

[Tom]

Nice to see the Rockies well above normal with snowfall this season...the Sierra is 750% above normal!

 

 

Here are some web cams for Heavenly Ski Resort.  I've skied there before in the late 90's way back in high school.  One of the most beautiful ski resorts I've been to.

 

http://www.skiheavenly.com/video-and-interactive/web-cams.aspx

[westMJim]

Until last night the coldest it had gotten here at my house this fall was 31° (the coldest had been 29° at the airport) but here at my house last night I had my first hard freeze with a low of 25° and the low at GRR was at least 28°. Now all of the tress in my yard are bare. 

[Tom]

Until last night the coldest it had gotten here at my house this fall was 31° (the coldest had been 29° at the airport) but here at my house last night I had my first hard freeze with a low of 25° and the low at GRR was at least 28°. Now all of the tress in my yard are bare. 

Now all you need is a fresh blanket of snow!  Ha! 

[james1976]

Last couple GFS runs have been boring for midwest after next week's storm. Storm track gets pushed to the south and east on these runs.

[Iowa2015]

Few of the gfs have looked cold off in la la land right before turkey day only problem not much preparation once the cold air arrives

[Tom]

Last couple GFS runs have been boring for midwest after next week's storm. Storm track gets pushed to the south and east on these runs.

Your getting way ahead of yourself!  Relax, the setup is looking good with all the blocking getting organized.

 

Meantime, 12z GGEM is still the Plains Friend...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015110812/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015110812/gem_asnow_us_39.png

[james1976]

Man, thats a powerhouse. Im sure GFS will bring it back. Always flip flopping if its over a week out. I was just referring to last couple runs.

[Maxim]

Few of the gfs have looked cold off in la la land right before turkey day only problem not much preparation once the cold air arrives

Really? It doesn't look cold at all to me...

[Geos]

Had a hard freeze finally here last night. Low of 28°.

Trees are 85-90% bare now, except the Oaks that hang onto theirs until early Spring.

 

Speaking of snowpack here is Paradise at Mt. Rainier NP. Was there 6 weeks ago when it started snowing above 7000ft, now the snowpack is starting to build all the way down to 3500 feet.

 

http://www.nps.gov/webcams-mora/gh.jpg?201510813338

[Hawkeye]

We had a good frost this morning, but only a light freeze at best.  The optimum cooling conditions were farther to the east.

[jaster220]

If the first system were to set up later in the winter (like late December or January) that would be a good set up for lake effect in West Michigan (if the winds were not too strong) Also its been a while since a really big November storm on the Great Lakes the last "real big" one was in 1998 we shall see

 

That one was huge, but (2) yrs ago wasn't bad either. Lost power in Marshall which doesn't happen often.

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow Tom. That would definitely be a plains friend on the ggem model.

[james1976]

What did 12z Euro show?

[OKwx2k4]

If the trend on that GGEM is a little more south each run, I might end up pretty happy with that for an early winter storm.

[Tom]

What did 12z Euro show?

A bit disorganized this run and farther north.  Looks similar to the GFS.  There is another strong piece of energy that enters the PAC NW Day 9 which the model is having a tough time how to decipher what to do with it.  A lead weak piece ejects out into the Plains and then forms a 992mb SLP in N IL Day 10. 

[james1976]

18z GFS bombs it out over the northeast day 10. 980 and then 968 in SE Canada!

[Jaycee]

00z GFS is sleeping on this storm, hardly even a sheared wave, let alone a storm. Plenty of time, thinking models have overdone it, and the others will follow suit (just my 2 cents). Still love the GGEM though

[james1976]

Yup, 0z and 6z runs of GFS are virtually nothing. The cold shots are pretty much gone as well.

[Iowa2015]

Yep! Highs back up close mid 50 to near 60 close to Turkey day now

[Iowa2015]

This mid week storm looking like their be a out break of severe weather for quite a few on the group plus windy & rain after that it be a snooze again

[OKwx2k4]

In keeping with a couple of analogs I hearken back to, 1977 and 2009 weren't all that cold or exciting other than a few good sized storms and some thunderstorms if I remember my maps correctly. I'm not disappointed yet.

[Tom]

NAO/AO still show blocking setting up...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

 

Let's see how this all plays out.  Models may be having a real tough time trying to figure this all out.

[westMJim]

In keeping with a couple of analogs I hearken back to, 1977 and 2009 weren't all that cold or exciting other than a few good sized storms and some thunderstorms if I remember my maps correctly. I'm not disappointed yet.

In the winter of 1977/78 us here in the Great Lakes area had one of the benchmarks snow storms that January. 

[OKwx2k4]

In the winter of 1977/78 us here in the Great Lakes area had one of the benchmarks snow storms that January.

Sorry, I was referring to November alone, not the winter. We all know what the winters brought. :-)

[OKwx2k4]

Keeping my fingers crossed Tom.

[gosaints]

Gfs with only glancing cool shots

[GDR]

Looks like a lot of wish casting going on already. People wishing for cold air and snow to dominate the winter but I wouldn't count on much of it this winter with an El Niño

[OKwx2k4]

Looks like a lot of wish casting going on already. People wishing for cold air and snow to dominate the winter but I wouldn't count on much of it this winter with an El Niño

I'd be willing to read any logic or analog process you have that says contrary other than just "it's El Nino".

[Geos]

Blocking would be in favor, since solar activity is super low.

 

A hard freeze again this morning with a low of 27°. My Japanese Maple put on a color yesterday. Tonight it is bare.

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Wow! Those trees are beautiful. I like sugar maples also.

[james1976]

GFS bringing back a storm for late next week. Bombs out to 976 in upper midwest! Looks like 850s wrap around to give some of us snow. Another very windy system. Still a ways out but something to watch.

[Tom]

Glad to see the Sierra snow pack building early this season.  A nice photo taken at the top of Heavenly Resort illustrating the beauty of Lake Tahoe...

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Snow-Tahoe.jpg

[jaster220]

Glad to see the Sierra snow pack building early this season.  A nice photo taken at the top of Heavenly Resort illustrating the beauty of Lake Tahoe...

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Snow-Tahoe.jpg

 

? Am I the only one that cannot see an image, only the file name? Using FF for a browser, and just noticed a couple things you posted not showing.

[Tom]

? Am I the only one that cannot see an image, only the file name? Using FF for a browser, and just noticed a couple things you posted not showing.

Maybe this will help...

[jaster220]

Maybe this will help...

 

WOW! Now that's a beaut!

 

Brings a question though. With the early snow build-up, do we end up with a "coast-to-coast" cold winter, or are they going to lose a lot of that when the hot-n-dry ridge returns out west and the trough favors eastern regions?