November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Give me a break...

 

I'm sure you remember this golden oldie...

 

[TT-SEA]

Well its not a open forum is it? Alot of people do not like sports. The comment was not pointed towards you. Why did you take it personally?

 

 

I did not take it personally... but I do enjoy sports in addition to the weather!   

[Front Ranger]

The thermometer tells the whole story!

 

Low level cold is just so fraudulent.

[Deweydog]

Low level cold is just so fraudulent.

I suppose it's in keeping with your pusher style that it would rub you the wrong way.

[Front Ranger]

I suppose it's in keeping with your pusher style that it would rub you the wrong way.

 

This makes zero sense.

 

But nothing really matters, so....what else do people hate on here besides sports and fake, spurious cold??

[Timmy]

It's amazing how fast discussion goes to crap with the models.

[Deweydog]

This makes zero sense.

 

But nothing really matters, so....what else do people hate on here besides sports and fake cold??

You're probably the only person here who has an issue with the term and it's not exactly surprising. You're known to push cold beyond its limits of legitimacy so it's a pretty linear dynamic.

[Deweydog]

It's amazing how fast discussion goes to crap with the models.

Models look pretty good to me but I'm a weather sadist. Godforbid things turn clear and crisp.

[Front Ranger]

You're probably the only person here who has an issue with the term and it's not exactly surprising. You're known to push cold beyond its limits of legitimacy so it's a pretty linear dynamic.

 

 

I don't have an "issue" with it, I just find the term fake cold funny. 

 

Sometimes you interpret things through a rather narrow lens.

[Deweydog]

 

I don't have an "issue" with it, I just find the term fake cold funny.

 

Sometimes you interpret things through a rather narrow lens.

I get it. The fact you find it funny is just even funnier.

[Front Ranger]

Highlight of our winter!

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

Looking at this again, someone really needs to remind Mark about the separation of weather and sports. 

[Front Ranger]

I get it. The fact you find it funny is just even funnier.

 

The fact that you find that even funnier is freakin' hilarious! What a riot. Time for a PDO joke.

[Timmy]

Models look pretty good to me but I'm a weather sadist. Godforbid things turn clear and crisp.

The latest wrf gfs replaced my previous 4-6" forecast to ~1". So I'm a little bitter

[MossMan]

Seahawks win, chance of snow Tuesday, and yet everyone is pissed off tonight!

[MossMan]

Looking at this again, someone really needs to remind Mark about the separation of weather and sports.

Who cares about the Civil War...the Apple Cup will be the game to watch!

[Deweydog]

The fact that you find that even funnier is freakin' hilarious! What a riot. Time for a PDO joke.

The PDO speaks for itself. Anything beyond the numbers would just seem mean. The fake cold thing just popped up out of nowhere. Classic stuff.

[Front Ranger]

The PDO speaks for itself. Anything beyond the numbers would just seem mean. The fake cold thing just popped up out of nowhere. Classic stuff.

All I know is, that hot summer/cold winter combo is really due.

 

And we need to move all airports to uninhabited places.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This makes zero sense.

 

But nothing really matters, so....what else do people hate on here besides sports and fake, spurious cold??

Who hates fake cold and whoever said that?? Please quote it? why are you calling it that?? tisk tisk...

[Deweydog]

All I know is, that hot summer/cold winter combo is really due.

 

And we need to move all airports to uninhabited places.

Whatever gets you through the night...

[luvssnow_spokane]

The latest wrf gfs replaced my previous 4-6" forecast to ~1". So I'm a little bitter

It's okay ... You will have plenty of low-level cold.. Unless you're above a 1500ft than you can be in 50 degree weather, but really low-level cold is all that matters ... So cheer up!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Seahawks win, chance of snow Tuesday, and yet everyone is pissed off tonight!

Lol!! post of the night!! So, true...

[High Desert Mat]

Wow. You guys must be fun on a Friday night. Quit bickering and enjoy the fact we are really early in winter and things can change dramatically fast.

 

Hawks win!!!! Sweet!!

[Guest Winterdog]

This portion of tonight's AFD should cheer us all up a bit:

WHILE THE PATTERN CHANGE HAS BEEN
WELL ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...THE ONE TREND
THAT HAS BEEN SEEN IS TO NOT DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA
QUITE AS MUCH...NOT DEVELOP THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTH AS
MUCH...AND TO NOT BRING QUITE AS MUCH COLD AIR WEST OF THE CASCADES
AND INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON AS WAS THOUGHT A COUPLE DAYS AGO.

[snow_wizard]

It won't be 50 but it will take a couple days for any low level inversion to set up.

 

Actually this will be a transition right from real cold to fake cold.  Even the WRF is showing a significant inversion setting up this week and that model is normally extremely conservative with those.  It could turn into a freezing fog situation by the end of the week.  Portland could see some impressive cold outflow from the gorge.

[Perturbed Member]

The 00z WRF has come to it's senses as expected. Shows no lowland snow now anywhere near PDX. Soundings show early morning on Tuesday 925mb temps are still 0c with some decent precip going on but the surface temp is in the 35-39F range. Some cold rain for most of the metro area and maybe a trace to an inch on top of some of the hills if this verified. 

 

I think it is quite safe to say that all accumulating snow at least anywhere near PDX will be above 1000ft. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like possible cool zonal flow developing in early December according to the GFS ensemble.  A pattern like that suggests opportunities down the road.  For now I'm going to enjoy the week to 10 days of chilly weather coming up.  Nice to see after about 20 months of torching.  If some people can't understand why some of us welcome that, I can't help them.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like possible cool zonal flow developing in early December according to the GFS ensemble. A pattern like that suggests opportunities down the road. For now I'm going to enjoy the week to 10 days of chilly weather coming up. Nice to see after about 20 months of torching. If some people can't understand why some of us welcome that, I can't help them.

How can you keep saying 20 months when we had a period just like this last November?

[ShawniganLake]

How can you keep saying 20 months when we had a period just like this last November?

Last November was a heck of a lot colder than this.  The weather upcoming looks pretty nice for working outside, so I will take that.  Nothing good upcoming for the mountains after Monday though.  EURO is just ugly for the next 10 days.  GFS ensemble shows wetter weather returning in early December but temps look above seasonal. 

[TT-SEA]

Last November was a heck of a lot colder than this. The weather upcoming looks pretty nice for working outside, so I will take that. Nothing good upcoming for the mountains after Monday though. EURO is just ugly for the next 10 days. GFS ensemble shows wetter weather returning in early December but temps look above seasonal.

 

Jim is silly to talk about the GFS showing zonal flow until the ECMWF shows it... and it's not showing it yet. All that means is cool, dry weather continues until further notice. The length of the dry period is more noteworthy for this time of year. Bad for the mountains and ski resorts for sure.

[snow_wizard]

Say what you will about inversions, but the ECMWF is showing perhaps the best scenario for an extreme inversion that I have ever seen.  Day after day of weak offshore gradients.  Gradient angles suggest the Puget Sound area will grow progressively colder late this week through early next week.  Hard to say if fog will become a major factor, but it could.  Right now I think the Portland area could be downright cold by early next week with cold east winds blowing through the Gorge.  Probably looking at ice forming on the cliffs around the waterfalls.

 

I'll be interested to see how we come out of the inversion pattern, but I see nothing to suggest we won't have another opportunity for some goodies coming up.

[TT-SEA]

Say what you will about inversions, but the ECMWF is showing perhaps the best scenario for an extreme inversion that I have ever seen. Day after day of weak offshore gradients. Gradient angles suggest the Puget Sound area will grow progressively colder late this week through early next week. Hard to say if fog will become a major factor, but it could. Right now I think the Portland area could be downright cold by early next week with cold east winds blowing through the Gorge. Probably looking at ice forming on the cliffs around the waterfalls.

 

I'll be interested to see how we come out of the inversion pattern, but I see nothing to suggest we won't have another opportunity for some goodies coming up.

The term 'goodies' is still annoying. We are not 5 years old.

 

And fog is not likely to become a problem with such a dry air mass to start.

[snow_wizard]

How can you keep saying 20 months when we had a period just like this last November?

 

That was a break, but the month still averaged above normal.  This will be the most below normal month by far since Feb 2014 (in fact the only below normal month except September of this year).  I feel the need to put all of the abnormal warmth behind us.

[TT-SEA]

That was a break, but the month still averaged above normal.  This will be the most below normal month by far since Feb 2014 (in fact the only below normal month except September of this year).  I feel the need to put all of the abnormal warmth behind us.

Are you controlling it?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As of 1am.

 

Pdx 34

sle 29

EUG 28

[MossMan]

32 current degrees and frosty.

[The Swamp]

We need a "safe space" on this site for folks where they can go and be free from micro aggressions.

[crf450ish]

Guys is this seriously still happening around here?   Gee wiz its just the weather....If you dont like the weather in your area then move. As I did....

 

EDIT: sorry not trying to troll, just my honest opinion. 

[TT-SEA]

Here is Tuesday morning now... cold air is just not there.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/slp.24.0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It looks like the chances for snow at my location are really dwindling now. Never really even gets cold enough and the bulk of the moisture heads south. Central Oregon should do well...

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per new 12Z WRF:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/snow24.36.0000.gif