Deweydog Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 They need to apply the same rules to both sets of numbers. That's all I'm saying.Oh Jim... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The 00z model suite will be telling...No doubt. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The 00z model suite will be telling...No doubt.It will be getting warmer... that is for sure! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 And yet, this November will end up way colder just about everywhere than last November. Go figure!Going to end up pretty much the same as last year here. Which will likely be bang on normal for the month. For my area it's hard to even compare this cool snap to the late November one from last year. This had basically no upper level support and last November had a legitimate Fraser river outflow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Expecting every Nino year to behave the same as previous ones is ludicrous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Expecting every Nino year to behave the same as previous ones is ludicrous. Yes, but there are certain trends Nino years tend to follow. Although obviously there are other indices that factor in as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Going to end up pretty much the same as last year here. Which will likely be bang on normal for the month. For my area it's hard to even compare this cool snap to the late November one from last year. This had basically no upper level support and last November had a legitimate Fraser river outflow. That's something everyone seems to be forgetting a whole year later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I'm guessing we have different takes on what "zonal flow" constitutes. I'm speaking strictly in terms of wave amplitude across the Western Hemisphere. Obviously no two years will have the exact same synoptic configurations, but that's fairly obvious and largely irrelevant. The main difference I think we're talking about is the lack of a strong, consolidated jet. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Going to end up pretty much the same as last year here. Which will likely be bang on normal for the month. For my area it's hard to even compare this cool snap to the late November one from last year. This had basically no upper level support and last November had a legitimate Fraser river outflow. You're the exception rather than the rule in this case. Plus, I was excluding Canada. Per usual. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The main difference I think we're talking about is the lack of a strong, consolidated jet. We had an extremely strong jet not that long ago, and I'm betting we will see it happen again fairly soon. We'll see I guess. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Amazingly this will go down as the first month SEA is going to have a monthly average below 45 degrees since Feb 2014. That stat is so ludicrous I can't believe it really went that long. To be fair, you're talking about 2 months that routinely average below 45 degrees: December and January. So you're talking about one winter, and two months that usually do it. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 That's something everyone seems to be forgetting a whole year later. I'm not forgetting it all. The fact is this a way colder month overall for most places. The mean setup for the entire month was much different than year and much less Nino like I might add. No doubt the late month cold snap last year was nice. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 To be fair, you're talking about 2 months that routinely average below 45 degrees: December and January. So you're talking about one winter, and two months that usually do it. Actually the Feb normal is well below 45 also. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Get your snow fix right now... Patriots playing Broncos in Denver on NBC. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Oh Jim... No one has ever been able to give a good reason for it, though. At least that I've seen. Saying "it's math" does not explain it. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Actually the Feb normal is well below 45 also. Ah, you're right. So it went 3 months that would normally be below 45. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Get your snow fix right now... Patriots playing Broncos in Denver on NBC. It's halftime. Your timing is terrible. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 That's something everyone seems to be forgetting a whole year later. The discussion was about monthly anomalies and patterns, not the upper level support for individual events. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I'm not forgetting it all. The fact is this a way colder month overall for most places. The mean setup for the entire month was much different than year and much less Nino like I might add. No doubt the late month cold snap last year was nice. Yeah... the cold snap at the end of November last year was just a little bit nicer here than the event this year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 No one has ever been able to give a good reason for it, though. At least that I've seen. Saying "it's math" does not explain it.I'll have to jump in and agree here. It doesn't make sense that they round up with one and round down with the other. Not at all suggesting some sort of conspiracy, because that would be silly, but some sort of explanation beyond the predictable condescension of an aging Hockinsonian softball coach would be nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The discussion was about monthly anomalies and patterns, not the upper level support for individual events.This November will only end up marginally cooler than last at PDX as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 It's halftime. Your timing is terrible. Game is back on! Tune in to NBC to see snow falling and 24 degrees during a football game. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Yeah... the cold snap at the end of November last year was just a little bit nicer here than the event this year. In your back yard. Way better here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Game is back on! Tune in to NBC to see snow falling and 24 degrees during a football game. Reminds me of a Monday night back in 2006! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 This November will only end up marginally cooler than last at PDX as well. Sure about that? It will be easily cooler than last most places. South of the Canadian border, at least. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 This November will only end up marginally cooler than last at PDX as well. Last November was barely below average at PDX (-0.3). With another -8 departure tomorrow PDX will end up -1.3 this month. A full 1 F colder than last year. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Reminds me of a Monday night back in 2006! Indeed! The first Seahawks game I watched in CO. Twas a glorious night. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Didn't look foggy at all at the CLINK for the Hawks game today. What a win, and what horrible defense by Seattle. I'm skeptical of the overall pattern coming up, because although it is zonal, it has split-flow features to it. December 2006 had a much more consolidated jet. Things must be interesting though because I keep checking back each model run.... Which means I HAVE HOPE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 South of PDX was actually above average last November. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Last November was barely below average at PDX (-0.3). With another -8 departure tomorrow PDX will end up -1.3 this month. A full 1 F colder than last year.The degree heard 'round the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The degree heard 'round the world. In our climate that is a significant difference IMO. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Oh Jesse. I think you need a Mark break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Ah, you're right. So it went 3 months that would normally be below 45. Another thing is that it's never happened before. A truly extraordinary anomaly. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Yeah... the cold snap at the end of November last year was just a little bit nicer here than the event this year. Indeed it was! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I'm pretty hopeful that somewhere in the mid Dec to mid Jan time frame will deliver. Way too early for the gloom on here. Especially with consistently promising GFS runs and ensemble runs. I'll bet a nice crisp $100.00 here and now this December will be colder than last year. It would be pretty hard for me to lose. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Not sure I would call the gfs runs promising, but they could be worse. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I'm pretty hopeful that somewhere in the mid Dec to mid Jan time frame will deliver. Way too early for the gloom on here. Especially with consistently promising GFS runs and ensemble runs. I'll bet a nice crisp $100.00 here and now this December will be colder than last year. It would be pretty hard for me to lose. How about $100 that December does not end up below normal? And don't pick on people for being down... you are famous for being way too far up early on in the season and then WAY too far down later. Maybe you can stick around and still talk to us when things don't work out this year? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Sure about that? It will be easily cooler than last most places. South of the Canadian border, at least.To be fair, YYJ, YVR, YXX are all running cooler this November. But I know you prefer those nice, long standing rural stations, which Shawnigan Lake is. Or maybe you just prefer the ones that are running cold at the time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The main difference I think we're talking about is the lack of a strong, consolidated jet.Jet extension is just maxing a bit farther west this go around. That doesn't make the pattern any less zonal, in terms of streamflow. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 GFS agrees with 12Z ECMWF for Thursday... looks like good mixing with an 850mb temp around +7C. Could see a few 60-degree readings somewhere between Eugene and Bellingham. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_096_precip_p03.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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