November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This setup looks like last years cold snap around this same time ... Sadly it was a very dry one but I did have a low of 14f on November 30th but no snow. I dread the thought of a repeat but the setup is super similar.

 

The cold snap this time last year was pretty meh down here. What the GFS is showing is better. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the 06z GFS. It shows an overrunning event for W. Oregon the day after Thanksgiving. lol

[luvssnow_spokane]

The cold snap this time last year was pretty meh down here. What the GFS is showing is better.

True! -- but the current model out put at this point is nearly a mirror setup... So, that is my concern. Not that I should really be concerned at least we have the potential!!

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looking good so far.

[Front Ranger]

12z GFS not looking quite as awesome as the 6z, but still pretty good. Looks like lowland snow possible starting around hour 144-150.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through hour 129 the 12z is looking fine. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Doing some model comparison v.s. 6z, 12z looks nearly identical thus far through HR 132-144, timing has moved ahead a bit on this run as well. That's a good sign too. Let's see how far south-southwest the arctic trough ultimately ends up digging.

[luvssnow_spokane]

So far I am liking the 12z GFS!!  Continues the goods... at hour 120 there is plenty of cold and the low placement at hour 144  is looking very, very nice.   So in 5 days or less this could all begin to become reality. Woohoo!!!

 

Hour 120:

 

 

 

 

Hour 144:

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 168 v.s. 6z trough is slightly further east, not digging as far offshore.

[Gradient Keeper]

Colder at HR 180, but ridge is more progressive not holding firm.

[luvssnow_spokane]

In the solid -10c to -15cish at hour 180.... Not bad...

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Brrrrrrrr by hour 192 but very very dry... 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Brrrrrrrr by hour 192 but very very dry... 

 

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 8.34.44 AM.jpg

 

 

Perfect if there is snow on the ground already.

[Gradient Keeper]

Turkey day looks cold!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Cold continues to hold so far through hour 210... Upper levels are going more easterly from North Easterly. Should /could really draw some bitterness for the Gorge folks.  

 

Hour 210:

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like it is a short to medium lived event with average of 3" (down the I-5) of snow on this run but better than nada... By hour 240 things are heading back toward climo for us Westonians... 

 

Hour 240:

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 240 may not moderate much for PDX I see a PDX-DLS of at least 6mb continuing to pour cold air into PDX, at least below 4000'

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 240 may not moderate much for PDX I see a PDX-DLS of at least 6mb continuing to pour cold air into PDX, at least below 4000'

Even way out at HR 288 PDX-DLS is 6-8mb continuing to pour cold air into PDX, we're not moderating as quickly as this model run shows. Nope.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even way out at HR 288 PDX-DLS is 6-8mb continuing to pour cold air into PDX, we're not moderating as quickly as this model run shows. Nope.

Welcome back. I don't know that speculation on hr 288 is productive. I hope this happens.

[Gradient Keeper]

Welcome back. I don't know that speculation on hr 288 is productive. I hope this happens.

Thanks, nope definitely not productive. Anything can happen after day 6 for crying out loud. Nice to see the arctic front showing up at HR 144 on the 12z WRF. Hope you've been well up there in the hills.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Well that was my first model ride of the year... I feel like I need a cigarette...

[TT-SEA]

And then the 12Z Canadian is pile of crap... continuing the theme it started with its 00Z run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the 12z, Rob is right. The low level cold would hang on for quite a while. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty concerned by the trend on the Canadian. Are its ensembles out? The 12z GFS is great, Hours 141-150 is a 3-5" snow event for my location too...

[stuffradio]

And then the 12Z Canadian is pile of crap... continuing the theme it started with its 00Z run.

We'll chalk it up to the Canadian being behind the times this time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We'll chalk it up to the Canadian being behind the times this time.

 

I dismiss all mode runs I don't like as outliers! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Now I'm wondering if the Ensembles continue to be colder than the operational as well hold the ridge more firm as they have, or will 12z GFS ENS handle the trough the same. Now, this is great, but imagine if the Ensembles are anything like 6z were..... means 00z could be even colder tonight. Speculation of course because we all know too well this isn't near a lock yet... It is encouraging though to see timing moving ahead with colder air arriving around HR 144 into Washington. Find out around 10:10 AM.

 

We've seen models change at the last minute before too many times. If we see the next 2 days continue this, slowly move timing ahead with each subsequent run and not lose Ensemble support, because then we'd have the pattern setting up upstream by day 2 or 3. Once the 500mb pattern develops it is nearly a foregone conclusion what occurs downstream over WA/OR 2-3 days later. That would put us at a window of 4-5 days cold arriving. Confidence would definitely grow at that point....then we can start to say this is looking likely. Not yet

[catnip]

Now I'm wondering if the Ensembles continue to be colder than the operational as well hold the ridge more firm as they have, or will 12z GFS ENS handle the trough the same. Now, this is great, but imagine if the Ensembles are anything like 6z were..... means 00z could be even colder tonight. Speculation of course because we all know too well this isn't near a lock yet... It is encouraging though to see timing moving ahead with colder air arriving around HR 144 into Washington. Find out around 10:10 AM.

 

We've seen models change at the last minute before too many times. If we see the next 2 days continue this, slowly move timing ahead with each subsequent run and not lose Ensemble support, because then we'd have the pattern setting up upstream by day 2 or 3. Once the 500mb pattern develops it is nearly a foregone conclusion what occurs downstream over WA/OR 2-3 days later. That would put us at a window of 4-5 days cold arriving. Confidence would definitely grow at that point....then we can start to say this is looking likely. Not yet

Cautiously Optimistic!!

[stuffradio]

I dismiss all mode runs I don't like as outliers! 

That's the spirit!

[Gradient Keeper]

And then the 12Z Canadian is pile of crap... continuing the theme it started with its 00Z run.

Yeah, 12z GEM wasn't good, trough slides more southeast only marginally cold at 850mb briefly, but strong east wind for PDX with a low off to the southwest. 925mb temps, low-level cold is evident.

 

Edit, before day 10 moisture moving north, strong east wind likely snow/zr event for PDX.

[TT-SEA]

We'll chalk it up to the Canadian being behind the times this time.

Canadian was the first model to show the event. I don't like when the Canadian is showing something so different now.

[TT-SEA]

Strange bright object in the sky here today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Strange bright object in the sky here today.

 

Here too. Heavy rain tonight. 

[TT-SEA]

Here too. Heavy rain tonight. 

 

 

Thankfully that will mostly miss this area.

[TT-SEA]

I will go with whatever the 12Z ECMWF shows!  

[stuffradio]

Strange bright object in the sky here today.

Must be an UOO (Unidentified orbiting object)

[TT-SEA]

Must be an UOO (Unidentified orbiting object)

 

 

I think maybe the Earth is still in orbit around its sun... I was wondering if that was the case with no evidence recently.

[MikeInEverett]

FWIW weather.com has highs in the mid 30s and lows in the low 20s for the Everett area mid-late next week. Mix of sun and rain/snow showers.

[stuffradio]

I think maybe the Earth is still in orbit around its sun... I was wondering if that was the case with no evidence recently.

I was talking about the Moon.

[Front Ranger]

Canadian was the first model to show the event. I don't like when the Canadian is showing something so different now.

 

Could have sworn it was the Euro.