November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I was talking about the Moon.

 

 

Far too bright to be the moon.   It hurts my eyes to look towards the SE right now.    So bright.  

[Front Ranger]

Far too bright to be the moon.   It hurts my eyes to look towards the SE right now.    So bright.  

 

These help. 

[TT-SEA]

Could have sworn it was the Euro.

 

 

Canadian was right there and with some awesome runs.    Now its gotten much worse with the last 2 runs.  

 

I just don't like when that happens with something good.   Its usually a bad sign and other models soon follow.   We will see.

[TT-SEA]

Not only is the sun shining... but with the breeze and a drier air mass everything is pretty much dried out.  Even the roads are dry and some of them were under water last night.

 

And then we have the lawn maintenance crew mowing the grass along the roads in the common areas this morning... and the sound of the lawn mowers is putting off a summer vibe.  

 

Hopefully the same crew will be plowing our roads in a week.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS ensembles...The operational was about even with the mean. Not really any warm members now...

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png?hc_location=ufi

[bainbridgekid]

12z GFS ensembles...The operational was about even with the mean. Not really any warm members now...

 

 

Awesome.

 

Slightly colder than the 6z. Seattle mean drops to -12. Pretty rare to see that and have nothing come of it.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Awesome.

 

Slightly colder than the 6z. Seattle mean drops to -12. Pretty rare to see that and have nothing come of it.

 

MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Looks like only one member doesn't drop below -5C at SEA.

[TT-SEA]

Awesome.

 

Slightly colder than the 6z. Seattle mean drops to -12. Pretty rare to see that and have nothing come of it.

 

MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

Really good news.   Maybe the Canadian is truly out to lunch.   We will know much more in less than an hour.

[jcmcgaffey]

Canadian was right there and with some awesome runs.    Now its gotten much worse with the last 2 runs.  

 

I just don't like when that happens with something good.   Its usually a bad sign and other models soon follow.   We will see.

I remember the last few events over the last few years when the Canadian backed off an event while the others held steady the others finally caved in at the end.  The next couple Canadian runs will be intriguing to see..

Also on a side note, not to beat a dead horse but I can't help but mention the difference in temp from SEA and where I live just 3 miles north of downtown Seattle (Ballard area).  My low this morning was below freezing and yet SEA only managed 39.  My area seems to typically be 5-8 degrees less than SEA for lows but seems to be a larger difference during the winter.

[stuffradio]

This is from Brett Anderson from today:

Other thoughts.......

1. Strong winds into tonight across much of the eastern Prairies on the back side of the large storm.

2. Storm system diving in from the northwest early next week will combine with cold air leading to fairly low snow levels across southern BC Monday night into Tuesday. Accumulating snow is also likely across the southern half of Alberta Tuesday into the first half of Wednesday as it turns quite cold and windy.

3. Potential for accumulating snow across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba next Thursday.

4. Coldest air mass of the season will cover much of western Canada between the 25th-28th with the lowest departures from normal from south-central BC through Alberta.[

5. However, with a lack of high-latitude blocking most of these cold air masses will be progressive and not get locked in. A significant warm-up could begin over Alaska around the 26th-27th and that mild air mass will likely spread into the Yukon and NW Territories around the 29th-30th then into the Prairies at the start of December.

6. In the East, expect more of an up and down scenario with temperatures over the next 10-14 days, but again with a lack of blocking to the north most of the cold shots that do come in will not stick around for long.

[bainbridgekid]

Looks like only one member doesn't drop below -5C at SEA.

In fact, only one doesn't drop below -7.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anyone seen the Canadian ensembles? I would be interested in what they are looking like. If they are out yet. 

[ShawniganLake]

Anyone seen the Canadian ensembles? I would be interested in what they are looking like. If they are out yet. 

Seems similar to the operational I think.  Looks progressive.

[stuffradio]

Seems similar to the operational I think.  Looks progressive.

We don't take kindly to the progressives around here!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Ensembles 500mb anomaly keeps the block over Alaska sturdy not progressive beyond day 10. 500mb heights 564dm over Anchorage. Although I'd like it 5-10 degrees further west it looks good.

[Phil]

Phil, not trying to pick on you, but this was the conversation a couple days ago. I'm not sure how this could be interpreted other than you predicting the end result of this pattern would not be a cold snap, but instead zonal flow. Of course, that could still happen.

 

Again, I'm not trying to pick on you, but given your history for twisting the truth, I think it's fair to point it out that you have seemed to change your tune a bit over the past couple days regarding upcoming cold snap possibilities.

You can't be this stupid. I was obviously describing the specific GFS run in discussion at the time, not making a forecast. Go back and read the f**king discussion, then explain how you could possibly interpret that post any other way.

 

Of course, you knew that all along. You thrive on conflict, you're great at taking posts out of context, and you're constantly putting words in peoples' mouths. I'm not in the mood to put up with your backhanded bulls**t.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF through HR 120 might be trying to dig the energy further offshore than GFS.. We'll know soon and I need more sleep.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 144 Keep digging trough!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_7.png

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 168

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

[High Desert Mat]

What do you make of that negative tilting Rob?

[stuffradio]

HR 168

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

If I'm not mistaken, that looks like a pretty perfect setup for snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

What do you make of that negative tilting Rob?

I like it. Assuming the trough digs just a bit further it pulls more air out of NWT/AB the heart of the bitterly cold air.

[Gradient Keeper]

Score! HR 192 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111812/ecmwf_T850_nwus_9.png

[BLI snowman]

Pretty good agreement now between the Euro and GFS. Nice pattern and a strong sign of something when it's a week out.

[Kayla]

Wow, It doesn't get much better than that as far as snow and cold goes... Ideal setup.

[Gradient Keeper]

This is really nice right here

HR 192 500mb anomaly http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111812/ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

[Kayla]

ECMWF has 925mb temps down to -10º at hour 198. Impressive.

[TT-SEA]

Screw the Canadian!

[Gradient Keeper]

Screw the Canadian!

Yeah, it might be off it's rocker this time.

[Kayla]

And the block holds with zero moderation and 925 temps maintain at -10º through hour 222. That low even begins to sweep back through to the south holding the cold air in place. Incredible.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF buries my location in snow on Monday night as the cold air arrives (per the detailed Wundermap site).

[Gradient Keeper]

Very nice. Block is sturdy doesn't budge too much and really no undercutting... potential for reload after day 10 IF this holds or at least persistent cold, no moderation through day 10 and longer.

[Kayla]

Highs only in the 20's for Thanksgiving and Black Friday at face value for PDX metro area with this run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Highs only in the 20's for Thanksgiving and Black Friday at face value for PDX metro area with this run.

Yeah, looks real cold. Persistent cold pool over Columbia Basin and offshore flow for quite a long time continuing to pour very cold air westward. PDX won't moderate until early December at this rate.

[TT-SEA]

If the 12Z ECMWF verifies perfectly... one week from today will feature a high of about 25 with sunshine at my house with about 8-12 inches of snow on the ground.

[Gradient Keeper]

If the 12Z ECMWF verifies perfectly... one week from today will feature a high of about 25 with sunshine at my house with about 8-12 inches of snow on the ground.

Sounds nice. I'm dreaming of a White Turkey!

[HighlandExperience]

ECMWF buries my location in snow on Monday night as the cold air arrives (per the detailed Wundermap site).

 

Ya looks nice for your location. Pretty much the entire east side gets some snow early next week. WRF also shows some decent snow over the central sound (will see).

 

Nice to see a good pattern setting up after this weekend.

[luvssnow_spokane]

That D**n Canadian!! Always trying to mess with our hopes... Someone had mentioned how it lead the way in previous years. I do remover this numerous times. It takes about 2 or 3 days and models Started to cave and follow it. I hope this is not the case (again)

[MikeInEverett]

Starting to get excited. Lots of potential for a memorable event here. Still cautiously optimistic though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Everyone is getting way to carried away lol