November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[seattleweatherguy]

If the 12Z ECMWF verifies perfectly... one week from today will feature a high of about 25 with sunshine at my house with about 8-12 inches of snow on the ground.

Wow the low might be in single digits?

[FroYoBro]

Wow, what a great day of GFS runs. Looks like it should be fun obsessing over the models in the coming days.  

[bainbridgekid]

First mention of upcoming, possible, cold snap/snow in NWS SEA AFD:

 

WITH THE LOW RIGHT OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...SNOW LEVELS MAY

BE DOWN BETWEEN 500 FEET AND SEA LEVEL...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A LARGE MEASURE OF

UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW...SINCE THIS IS OUT AT DAYS 6 AND 7.

HOWEVER THE MODELS DO FAIRLY WELL SUCH LARGE DOMINANT FEATURES LIKE

THIS BIG LOW.

Here's their full writeup about it:

 

THE LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE BIG DEAL. IT WILL

CONTINUE DEEPENING SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER PASSING RIGHT OVER

W WA ON WEDNESDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 5310 METERS. 850 MB

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM -6 TO -10 OVER W WA. AS THE COLD LOW

DROPS DOWN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE

TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW SHOULD CROSS W WA. TIMING AND

STRENGTH OF THESE TROUGHS IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT

THEY WILL PROBABLY BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY SOME SNOW MIXED IN FROM TUESDAY

ONWARD. WITH THE LOW RIGHT OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...SNOW LEVELS MAY

BE DOWN BETWEEN 500 FEET AND SEA LEVEL...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A LARGE MEASURE OF

UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW...SINCE THIS IS OUT AT DAYS 6 AND 7.

HOWEVER THE MODELS DO FAIRLY WELL SUCH LARGE DOMINANT FEATURES LIKE

THIS BIG LOW. KAM

 

Great to see such good agreement on the 18z Ensembles. -13 mean is impressive.

[Gradient Keeper]

I wonder which model blinks first. Will the GFS trend towards the EURO and be cold, but not really cold!, or will the EURO move towards the GFS suggesting a stronger arctic blast. Maybe the models by 00z Friday or 12z Saturday will reveal that.

[seattleweatherguy]

Time to put on snow tires

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wonder which model blinks first. Will the GFS trend towards the EURO and be cold, but not really cold!, or will the EURO move towards the GFS suggesting a stronger arctic blast. Maybe the models by 00z Friday or 12z Saturday will reveal that.

Remember that the models giveth and the models taketh away.

[crf450ish]

This is why I love living in Eastern Wa now  . No need to worry about whether or not I will see arctic cold temps and snow...more of a matter of when and how many times. I now own a snowmobile and a 4x4 quad equipped with a snow plow. Awwww I can't wait

[Gradient Keeper]

Remember that the models giveth and the models taketh away.

That they do.

 

http://i.imgur.com/3ZeIAwf.jpg

[snow_wizard]

Great ensemble agreement.

 

 

That is a seriously cold mean.  One of the better ones in years.

[snow_wizard]

At this point its looking pretty dry and cold.

 

We all know it's pointless to try to pinpoint precip amounts at this point.

[Front Ranger]

First mention of upcoming, possible, cold snap/snow in NWS SEA AFD:

 

WITH THE LOW RIGHT OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...SNOW LEVELS MAY

BE DOWN BETWEEN 500 FEET AND SEA LEVEL...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW

SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A LARGE MEASURE OF

UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW...SINCE THIS IS OUT AT DAYS 6 AND 7.

HOWEVER THE MODELS DO FAIRLY WELL SUCH LARGE DOMINANT FEATURES LIKE

THIS BIG LOW.

 

Kind of an odd statement.

 

Anyhow, certainly nice to see the models develop some consistency over the past 24 hours. Except for that wacky Canadian.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of an odd statement.

 

Anyhow, certainly nice to see the models develop some consistency over the past 24 hours. Except for that wacky Canadian.

 

I think he meant the models are good for the big picture, but not for fine details.

[snow_wizard]

I am rather shocked to see both the 12z WRF and 12z ECMWF both showing decent snowfall for this area next week.  I guess I will have to do my November Arctic outbreak / snowfall post tonight.  It appears it's nearly unheard of for the Puget Sound area to not see snowfall with a Fraser River cold snap in the month of November.

[Deweydog]

I am rather shocked to see both the 12z WRF and 12z ECMWF both showing decent snowfall for this area next week. I guess I will have to do my November Arctic outbreak / snowfall post tonight. It appears it's nearly unheard of for the Puget Sound area to not see snowfall with a Fraser River cold snap in the month of November.

You guys are due!!!

[TT-SEA]

I am rather shocked to see both the 12z WRF and 12z ECMWF both showing decent snowfall for this area next week. I guess I will have to do my November Arctic outbreak / snowfall post tonight. It appears it's nearly unheard of for the Puget Sound area to not see snowfall with a Fraser River cold snap in the month of November.

Shocked? Nothing has happened yet.

 

And don't jinx it dude!

[Jbolin]

Cold and possible snow INSIDE of 384 hrs

Whaaaaa

[Snowman5678]

Shocked? Nothing has happened yet.

 

And don't jinx it dude!

Was going to say the same thing. Here comes the jinx.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Shocked? Nothing has happened yet.

 

And don't jinx it dude!

 

I know for real. Lets NOT do a cold November's post...

[High Desert Mat]

Rob, I know theres been a couple issues over there on Marks site, but I think you should chime in and give the others there that really appreciate your analyses some love. Dont let others annoy you. Just ignore them. Thanks man

[ShawniganLake]

I am rather shocked to see both the 12z WRF and 12z ECMWF both showing decent snowfall for this area next week. I guess I will have to do my November Arctic outbreak / snowfall post tonight. It appears it's nearly unheard of for the Puget Sound area to not see snowfall with a Fraser River cold snap in the month of November.

Didn't it happen about 360 days before this one is modelled for. Nov 28 of last year?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rob, I know theres been a couple issues over there on Marks site, but I think you should chime in and give the others there that really appreciate your analyses some love. Dont let others annoy you. Just ignore them. Thanks man

 

BGB41 is waiting...

[Gradient Keeper]

I know for real. Lets NOT do a cold November's post...

Yeah, we love ya man, but no Snow Wizard Sir, no cold posts, no "it's a lock" or anything. Nope.

 

NO WHAMMIES!

 

http://i.imgur.com/cYqE6QK.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

Rob, I know theres been a couple issues over there on Marks site, but I think you should chime in and give the others there that really appreciate your analyses some love. Dont let others annoy you. Just ignore them. Thanks man

Appreciate that, and I respect you for it, but it's really just not worth the potential hassle.

 

BGB41 is waiting...

I'm sure the usual bunch are. I don't think it would go too swimmingly, so that isn't worth my time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Appreciate that, and I respect you for it, but it's really just not worth the potential hassle.

 

I'm sure the usual bunch are. I don't think it would go too swimmingly, so that isn't worth my time.

 

I took a year long hiatus from fb and in the meantime I somehow ended up getting blocked from their fb group. 

[High Desert Mat]

Just one analysis Rob over there on the kptv weather blog. Dont let Brian get to you.

[Gradient Keeper]

I took a year long hiatus from fb and in the meantime I somehow ended up getting blocked from their fb group. 

Oh really? That's odd why the heck they would block you. Well, you're welcome to pop over to my PDX WX Analysis group anytime you wish. We've grown a lot, more mets, more pros, very active, really friendly atmosphere, great analysis and insight, oh and enthusiasm!

[High Desert Mat]

Do I need a facebook Rob? If not, link?

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, we love ya man, but no Snow Wizard Sir, no cold posts, no "it's a lock" or anything. Nope.

 

NO WHAMMIES!

 

 

I won't do that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh really? That's odd why the heck they would block you. Well, you're welcome to pop over to my PDX WX Analysis group anytime you wish. We've grown a lot, more mets, more pros, very active, really friendly atmosphere, great analysis and insight, oh and enthusiasm!

 

You'll have to unblock me

[snow_wizard]

Didn't it happen about 360 days before this one is modelled for. Nov 28 of last year?

 

Yup...we had snow with the one last year too.  It is really odd how every cold spell worth anything in November always manages to have snow in the Puget Sound area.  As I said I will post a rundown on that tonight.

[Front Ranger]

I know this flies in the face of conventional wisdom and science, but something tells me that if this cold outbreak is for real, it can't be jinxed. Not even by the mighty jinxing powers of a Snow Wizard cold post.

[MossMan]

Night number 2 in the dark...my daughter is having a great time walking around the house with her mini lanterns...sure glad I stocked up big time on supplies last year, have gone through a lot of batteries between the Aug Windstorm and this current one.

[seattleweatherguy]

Night number 2 in the dark...my daughter is having a great time walking around the house with her mini lanterns...sure glad I stocked up big time on supplies last year, have gone through a lot of batteries between the Aug Windstorm and this current one.

Power came back for me at 1pm today

[The Swamp]

I'm certain there will be no snow here in the swamp.  My only request would be that everyone share their loot(snowfall) in the form of pictures so that I can revel in the grandness.  I will live vicariously through ya'll.

[Front Ranger]

0z is a little further west with everything at hour 108.

[seattleweatherguy]

0z is a little further west with everything at hour 108.

Sounds bad unless that allows more cold air to seep through

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm certain there will be no snow here in the swamp. My only request would be that everyone share their loot(snowfall) in the form of pictures so that I can revel in the grandness. I will live vicariously through ya'll.

I am with you on that one... You and I are often getting same results being neighbors and all.

[Front Ranger]

Definitely more tilt in the ridge this run. It will likely end up with more precip but not as cold, at least at first.

 

Hour 129.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

0z is a little further west with everything at hour 108.

I think this is trending towards the EC ENS, but can't be 100% sure yet.

[Front Ranger]

I think this is trending towards the EC ENS, but can't be 100% sure yet.

 

It looks to me like last night's runs. Still cold, but not quite as amplified with the ridge and more progressive.