November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Yes indeed.  Given how much better the other models have been I expect the improving trend will continue.

 

Jesse has to be pleased there is basically no warm weather being shown over the next 10 days at least.  I know I sure am.

 

 

I think everyone is glad about no warm weather... all warm weather means from Nov-Jan is more rain.   Drier weather means it will be colder this time of year.  

 

And I need some freezing temps for my fruit trees.   

 

And the 00Z Canadian trended worse... so its not all models.

 

Side note... its sort of annoying when you are nothing but positive and then suddenly so negative we have to put you on suicide watch.  Happens every year like clockwork.  Mix in some negative news as well.   Its OK.    We can take it.

[MossMan]

Chains required on Snoqualmie Pass because of hail right now.

 

I've never seen that before.

That is pretty crazy! Drove to Moses Lake and back for work today, it was insane! Driving back I left Moses Lake at 10:30am and as I was driving past George I could see the wall of dust and dirt coming towards I-90. (They later closed the stretch between George and Vantage due to zero visibility and semi's tipping over) Then I hit the heavy rain and high winds at Elk Heights and was pretty much that way all the way to Stanwood. Never have I had the wipers on high for that long of a duration. Also the waterfalls coming off the cliffs at the summit and just west of the summit, I have been driving the pass every week for 3yrs and have never seen that much water.

[TT-SEA]

That is pretty crazy! Drove to Moses Lake and back for work today, it was insane! Driving back I left Moses Lake at 10:30am and as I was driving past George I could see the wall of dust and dirt coming towards I-90. (They later closed the stretch between George and Vantage due to zero visibility and semi's tipping over) Then I hit the heavy rain and high winds at Elk Heights and was pretty much that way all the way to Stanwood. Never have I had the wipers on high for that long of a duration. Also the waterfalls coming off the cliffs at the summit and just west of the summit, I have been driving the pass every week for 3yrs and have never seen that much water.

 

 

Was it raining when you came through North Bend?   

[MossMan]

It was obviously way worse up there than it was here. December 2006 was MUCH worse here than this event. Very interesting about the stilly. Huge flooding on that one and the Skagit seems to be the best harbingers of a coming Arctic outbreak. There must have been enough snowpack to exacerbate the flooding this time.

It was that west wind that nailed the area from just south of Everett to Arlington that blew right down the strait and plowing right into the mainland. The trees are not used to that direction at those speeds.

[MossMan]

[snow_wizard]

It was that west wind that nailed the area from just south of Everett to Arlington that blew right down the strait and plowing right into the mainland. The trees are not used to that direction at those speeds.

 

Ah...that explains it.  All I can say is if I didn't know better I would think we are in a La Nina.  This behavior is highly irregular for a major Nino.  Lets hope it continues, but begins to manifest in cold and snow instead of wind storms and flooding.

[TT-SEA]

Ah...that explains it.  All I can say is if I didn't know better I would think we are in a La Nina.  This behavior is highly irregular for a major Nino.  Lets hope it continues, but begins to manifest in cold and snow instead of wind storms and flooding.

 

 

November and December of 1982 look like they were pretty frickin active as well.   

 

December of 1997 was not exactly sunny and warm.

 

And December of 1972 and January of 1973 were FAR from pleasant and dry.

 

What made you think there would be no active weather this year??   Just looking at those 3 major Nino years... this should be about what was expected.

[HighlandExperience]

Ah...that explains it. All I can say is if I didn't know better I would think we are in a La Nina. This behavior is highly irregular for a major Nino. Lets hope it continues, but begins to manifest in cold and snow instead of wind storms and flooding.

Cliff Mass recently said this feels like an Anti El Niño. I think we will have some surprises this winter,

 

Just noticed they closed Stevens Pass. Looks insane up there!

[TT-SEA]

Cliff Mass recently said this feels like an Anti El Niño. I think we will have some surprises this winter,

 

Just noticed they closed Stevens Pass. Looks insane up there!

I think Cliff is generalizing too much. Very strong Ninos seem to be active in November and December at least.

[MossMan]

Just when I thought the wind was done it has come alive again! The last gust just shook the house.

[snow_wizard]

Half of the members of the GFS ensemble have 850s dropping to -8C or lower.  Not too shabby.

[snow_wizard]

Cliff Mass recently said this feels like an Anti El Niño. I think we will have some surprises this winter,

 

Just noticed they closed Stevens Pass. Looks insane up there!

 

 

The sky high NP is the reason for that.  The pressure anoms over the North Pacific have been off the charts this month.  It's also interesting to note the SOI has actually been running positive for the past week.  Pretty much a miracle with the insane ENSO warmth.  The El Nino is currently being trumped by other factors.

[Front Ranger]

I think Cliff is generalizing too much. Very strong Ninos seem to be active in November and December at least.

 

"Active" a fairly generic term. But as I posted recently, historically the PNW isn't more likely to score early season lowland snow in strong El Ninos. And if there is early season action, that doesn't diminish chances later in the winter.

 

1994-95 is one not too distant example of a pretty strong El Nino that was active and had some early season snowfall, and then more significant action later in the winter.

[bainbridgekid]

GFS Ensemble looks nice. About half the members show at leaSt a modified arctic blast around days 8-11.

 

00z Euro is intriguing through hour 156. Lots of energy pulled SW just off our coast. Unsure if it would be too splitty or if it would hold together and pull arctic air out of BC a bit later. Looks to have potential. Plenty of cold air in BC but I donr thunk this run will quit deliver it past the border.

 

[Jesse]

Ugh, I don't like seeing it digging offshore initially like that on the Euro.

 

Usually that starts out looking like a good thing. More moisture for snow! Then it ends up digging too far offshore, the top of the block cuts off, and we are left with a brief bout of cold seepage at the surface as SWrly flow busts through.

[Front Ranger]

Well, you're wrong. I do my best to convey my thoughts and be positively engaging here, so posts like this are just a tad bit irritating.

 

This was my last intraseasonal outlook, posted on October 11th. I haven't changed anything, and in fact I believe this forecast has verified.

 

 

I think what's confusing is just a couple days ago you seemed to be downplaying the chances of anything good coming up.

[Jesse]

00Z GFS ensembles are certainly eye catching.

[Front Ranger]

Too far out to sweat the details, but at least all of the models are now spitting out some runs with real potential for Thanksgiving week. Euro has led the way so far.

[Front Ranger]

I also meant to point this out a few days ago but forgot...El Ninos with wet falls in the PNW have historically led to more interesting winters than ones with dry falls. It's a pretty significant correlation.

 

So all that drought-destroying rain Tim has been going on about is a positive sign for weenies.

[Jesse]

I also meant to point this out a few days ago but forgot...El Ninos with wet falls in the PNW have historically led to more interesting winters than ones with dry falls. It's a pretty significant correlation.

 

So all that drought life-destroying rain Tim has been going on about is a positive sign for weenies.

 

Fixed it.

[BLI snowman]

Interesting storm today thanks to that unusual track and inland strengthening. And it's pretty rare to see such strong winds from two different directions with a low here. Those WNW winds were extreme, the westerlies that pushed down the gorge did a ton of damage and now I-84 is closed for the night from Troutdale to Hood River.

 

Also some mega damage on the eastside, with hurricane force gusts in the Spokane area. Historic storm there, and may now be the biggest power outage in the Spokane area's history.

[Phil]

I think what's confusing is just a couple days ago you seemed to be downplaying the chances of anything good coming up.

The only negative thing I've said regarding this event is that I suspect any Arctic air will remain north of the border, due to insufficient upstream amplification. That doesn't mean colder than normal temperatures w/ continental influence is off the table, assuming my thoughts are anything close to accurate.

 

Regarding specifics at the mesoscale level, your guess is as good or better than mine. My forecasts are always large scale. I usually don't attempt to forecast at the mesoscale level because I suck at it.

[ShawniganLake]

6z gfs for president!

[Deweydog]

06z madness!

[Gradient Keeper]

Hey everyone. I'm here, so you know something must be interesting on the models, eh?

 

6z Operational was great. Timing moved ahead also. Pattern develops upstream over the eastern Aleutians and Alaska before day 5 now. Trough digs right along the BC coast no longer digging further offshore or cutting off stalling out. Importantly both 00z EC/GFS Ensembles 500mb height anomaly handled the trough very similarly. The result is the colder air filters south much sooner. By HR 144 thickness values are already near 522 over PDX. Weak low spins up just south of Vancouver Island as cyclogenesis is caused by cold, arctic air pouring off the BC Coast. This low slowly dances south down the Washington Coast the next 2 days. It may bring very low snow levels if not snow to PDX metro by HR 180. The low then drops further south as colder air pulls in from the northeast. Very cold in the Gorge with The Dalles at -12c. By day 8-9 a low develops off northern California east wind is raging in the Gorge. Moisture starts to move north up the Willamete Valley. Strong east wind. Cold air in place. Likely snow/ice storm for PDX. After day 10 cold air may scour out of the Willamette Valley due to that low, but with very cold 925mb temps in place PDX and Gorge east and strong east wind, depending on how strong the warm push is as that low spin moisture up the Willamette Valley it's reasonable that PDX metro sees a significant snow/ice storm and not thawing out. It definitely doesn't moderate in the Gorge or Columbia Basin. The low is dropping south day 12-13, so it's reasonable that easterly flow never shuts off for PDX as the low which is well offshore never moves north of a line parallel to North Bend.

 

6z GFS Ensembles for Portland(Seattle was even better mean temp -12c!) were spectacular. The best Ensembles BY FAR! I wasn't sure what to expect, but after I analyzed the Operational 6z which was a MUCH improved run and really quite excellent, so all in all this is not too surprising. Mean temp dips to -10c! There are now only 1 or 2 "warm" members at 0c or warmer through November 27th. The majority are nearly all -8c to -15c! The mean temp is still -5c to the 29th. Is this sign of things to come with future runs? Unsure. It is pretty awesome though! Yes, it does appear mainly dry, but you have to get the cold here first and if this verifies we'll have it firmly entrenched. Looking at the 500mb anomaly on Ensembles is also very good for prolonged cold and maybe a reload. Heights 564dm over Anchorage is another key factor. The block remains over Alaska beyond day 10.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

We are close to a major blast. IF the trough digs just 150 miles further to the southwest it will draw in that much deeper cold air in from the northeast.

 

Onto 12z!

 

[Model Countdown]

12z GFS 2 hours 40 minutes

12z GEM 4 hours

12z ECMWF 5 hours

[Gradient Keeper]

I just perused over the 6z GFS Ensembles individual members

Check out all of the cold members! Very few are not.

500mb HR 168 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_6z/f168.gif

500mb HR 180 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_6z/f180.gif

500mb HR 192 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_6z/f192.gif

 

Tis' the Season!

[Phil]

Welcome back, Rob! Stick around this time, will ya?

[Gradient Keeper]

Welcome back, Rob! Stick around this time, will ya?

Thanks. I will try to chime in more. I have been real busy with life, my music, and my facebook weather group.

[TT-SEA]

Awesome... Rob is back! Makes following the models so much easier with detailed analysis all in one place. Welcome back!

[TT-SEA]

I also meant to point this out a few days ago but forgot...El Ninos with wet falls in the PNW have historically led to more interesting winters than ones with dry falls. It's a pretty significant correlation.

 

So all that drought-destroying rain Tim has been going on about is a positive sign for weenies.

Agree on all points.

 

And strong Ninos are not typically quiet. I think the moderately strong Ninos tend to be more quiet... but not the really strong ones like this year.

 

This recent very wet pattern intuitively feels like it will be followed with cold. And the intensely focused rain of the last 3 weeks has replenished all of the reservoirs.

 

Great set-up last night between Stevens and Snoqualmie with a stationary c-zone bringing snow all night. Nice to see some of the snow that was lost yesterday put right back again.

[Gradient Keeper]

Awesome... Rob is back! Makes following the models so much easier with detailed analysis all in one place. Welcome back!

Thanks, Tim. Detailed, but accurate hopefully, not like in the past where a broken clock is right 3 times a day type of posts. haha. Looking forward to your hopefully Snowy, Winter Wonderland pictures before December arrives.

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up....

12z GFS in 1 hours 40 minutes

Hoping we see a similar 500mb pattern evolution as 6z. Pattern change beginning upstream before day 5 over eastern Aleutians/Alaska, cold trough digging south hugging BC Coast, then continuing to dig south-southwest not stalling over us. IF we begin to see Operational runs follow the Ensemble Mean Temp/Cold members(-10c or colder) we could possibly see one of those "OH WOW, major blast coming!" moments. Let's keep this cold trend going!

 

12z GEM in 3 hours

12z ECMWF in 4 hours

[MossMan]

Interesting storm today thanks to that unusual track and inland strengthening. And it's pretty rare to see such strong winds from two different directions with a low here. Those WNW winds were extreme, the westerlies that pushed down the gorge did a ton of damage and now I-84 is closed for the night from Troutdale to Hood River.

 

Also some mega damage on the eastside, with hurricane force gusts in the Spokane area. Historic storm there, and may now be the biggest power outage in the Spokane area's history.

I work in the animal welfare/rescue field and I got word last evening that one of Spokane's animal shelters had its roof blown off. Also apparently several semi's blew over in that area on different highway's. Over here I woke up to darkness of course and our propane fireplace is deciding to act up, finally got it going but the pilot light is having issues. It is cold in the house this morning!

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS notwithstanding... the 00Z ECMWF was pretty disappointing.    The morning run had plenty of lowland snow in a week but the 00Z run is warmer.   Both the Canadian and the ECMWF have recently introduced the idea of the ULL digging farther offshore which is initially warmer.

 

For comparison... here is the 00Z run from Monday evening for next Wednesday:

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111700!!chart.gif

 

 

And the new 00Z run from Tuesday night for next Wednesday:

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111800!!chart.gif

 

 

While its not exactly for the same time since this map only has 24-hour increments... the 12Z ECMWF run from yesterday for next Wednesday was the best:

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111712!!chart.gif

[bainbridgekid]

I teach 2nd grade and school is cancelled because of the storm. I'm just as excited as when I was a kid!

 

6z operational and ensembles were things of beauty. Definitely feels like we might get something around Thanksgiving.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Mission ridge 137 mph. Wow.

[Front Ranger]

Phil, not trying to pick on you, but this was the conversation a couple days ago. I'm not sure how this could be interpreted other than you predicting the end result of this pattern would not be a cold snap, but instead zonal flow. Of course, that could still happen.

 

On the 0z GFS you can see our coming cold snap is already unfolding over the GOA by day 6.  It will be interesting to see how the details unfold in the coming days.

 

 

Verdict: PV wins, deflects NPAC wave break. Probably the most likely outcome, IMO.

 

 

explain

 

 

Unfortunately, not good. The NPAC wave break is the conduit for your downstream meridional response. In other words, flat, zonal flow is your end result.

 

I'm sure you'll say that you were talking about zonal flow eventually taking over in December, but that seems odd given that you were initially responding to a post by snow wizard ruminating about a cold snap and "how details will unfold in the coming days".

 

Again, I'm not trying to pick on you, but given your history for twisting the truth, I think it's fair to point it out that you have seemed to change your tune a bit over the past couple days regarding upcoming cold snap possibilities.

[Front Ranger]

06Z GFS notwithstanding... the 00Z ECMWF was pretty disappointing.    The morning run had plenty of lowland snow in a week but the 00Z run is warmer.   Both the Canadian and the ECMWF have recently introduced the idea of the ULL digging farther offshore which is initially warmer.

 

 

 

Interestingly enough though, the 0z Euro ensembles were better than the 12z.

 

12z:

 

 

 

0z:

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly enough though, the 0z Euro ensembles were better than the 12z.

 

12z:

 

12zens.png

 

0z:

 

0zens.png

 

 

That is good news.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This setup looks like last years cold snap around this same time ... Sadly it was a very dry one but I did have a low of 14f on November 30th but no snow. I dread the thought of a 'waste of cold air' repeat but the setup is super similar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Clear skies and a frosty 32 degrees right now.