It's crazy how quickly things can change on the models. A couple days ago it was starting to look like late January might fail for the PNW. Now it looks like a very good possibly it will work out after all. Still a ways to go but the odds of an arctic blast have significantly increased.

@Grizzcoat I have seen so many low nudge further north than progged over all my years I cant count them all. Particularly the more intense the low is. Ive seen it up and down the east coast states and many times here in Iowa. One system Ottumwa was the sweet spot for days on models right until final day. But Waterloo got the most and Ottumwa almost nothing. Ran into the old channel 8 met few days later he said "yea a 30 mile error". I said "no sir you mean a 100 mile error"!!! I almost always expect a 30 or 40 miles deviation on a deep low.

How far north this gets seems to depend on the lobe of energy hanging back over Lake Superior. Model runs that move that east before the storm arrives lift the storm farther north. Runs that hang that lobe back west force the storm to stay south. Even within individual models, the location of that lobe is fluctuating from run to run. The Euro shifted that lobe eastward this morning, but then the 18z run brought it significantly back to the west.

First WSW of the winter here. We’ve had warning criteria snows, but the NWS busted low twice. Now it’s time for them to bust high !

Given the latest model trends, I think the odds of an arctic blast in SWBC/PNW late January is pretty good. While I don't give any credibility to the CFS, it's interesting that the Euro weeklies look identical to the latest CFS run: