Hate to say it, but we are more overdue for a regional dud than a regional blockbuster. I’ve seen significant cold/snow (as in, at least one cold period with 3” or more of snow OR an irritating week-long ice storm) every winter since 2016-17, which is actually pretty crazy in our warming climate.

I feel confident that when the pattern changes it will be aggressive and stay locked into a colder pattern for a good bit of time. We will probably begin to dry out with ridge overhead for a good week and then retrograde that ridge. It isn't going to stay this cold in Alaska much longer and that cold will need to move somewhere. Christmas week and beyond will be fun is my gut feeling.

Maybe KSEA will get a freeze this winter. (Edit: they apparently got one on 11/30, but my point about “winter” still stands)

My location is always dry in the summer, thunderstorms at least this year didn’t seem anymore common in Spokane. The shadowing Spokane Valley specifically seems to get was pretty annoying. I think this was probably also an extremely boring weather year there so it skewed my opinion. I love the area though. I’m going to Bowl are Pitcher Saturday because I’ve missed it.

Detroit says colder solution with 4-7" to the Norh of Detroit and lesser totals as you go south. So Macomb County, macomb 4" total? Fairly sharp gradient in snow accumulations exists across SE Michigan as a result, with the 32 degree isotherm generally holding right along the M-46 corridor (coincident with the forecast track of the surface low). This low (and the freezing line) however have both trended south in recent forecast cycles. Main implication of this is that forecast temperatures are trending colder, and snow totals are increasing especially across nrn portions of the cwa. The current forecast calls for 4-6" of wet snow north of M-46, with tapering accumulations to below 1" near the Ohio border where temperatures may be aoa freezing at precipitation onset. Pending any dramatic northward shifts in the track, advisories will likely be needed across nrn portions of the cwa. Not entirely out of the question to reach entry level warning criteria either in the far north, especially along/north of the surface low where banded structures will be possible in the focused ascent regions of the frontal zone.