Maybe this year we will finally break the January curse after being edged all December…

Looking out at 39 degree rain pouring down, some of my icicle lights no longer working on the tree, and a vehicle that needs a transmission. But what matters is everyone’s healthy and the kids are excited for Santa to come tonight. I really wanted snow or a windstorm for Christmas. Hopefully next year.

Pretty much. Jet retracted too far but we don't have the appropriate forcing to nudge that ridge/trough over the right spot. As La Nina conditions rebound, and hopefully we get some more upward motion over the IO as the -IOD continues to weaken, we may see better odds into January.

Actually, GFS/GEM/ICON have at least a RN->SN outcome, just need old King Euro to join the party. Looks a bit progressive to be a big-dog but med-dog could be in the making?? With winds and its giddy-up time! I don't go back to the office until the 30th so I could actually enjoy some tracking of this potential. And for this Friday, attm GFS/GEM lean towards sleet here (which I would gladly take) vs Euro/ICON that are either wet or ice. Our marginal event was such a bust here Tues (my gut verified) that I don't have a lot of confidence this one goes our way tbh. Day before and after expected above freezing is a bit of a red flag imo.

The S Indian Ocean cold is part of the reason why the MJO is struggling to enter Phase 1. Definitely screwing with our winter patterns.