Tom Posted November 13, 2015 Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 The storm continues as yet another powerful system targets the southwestern U.S. and ejects out into the southern Plains cutting off from the main jet. More heavy Rocky Mtn Snows are expected and some may fall in the western/southern Plains. This storm will have it all from snow, severe wx and torrential rains as it will be a slow mover. Let's discuss... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111312/gfs_asnow_us_21.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111312/gfs_apcpn_us_26.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z GGEM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015111312/gem_asnow_us_22.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015111312/gem_apcpn_us_22.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 13, 2015 Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 I like that map for my location in Central Nebraska. Models will be getting a better handle on this in the coming days so we are bound to see changes to exact location of snow. Most local TV weather guys are on the fence. The farther west in Nebraska the greater likelihood of snow and the farther east the more likelihood of rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 I like that map for my location in Central Nebraska. Models will be getting a better handle on this in the coming days so we are bound to see changes to exact location of snow. Most local TV weather guys are on the fence. The farther west in Nebraska the greater likelihood of snow and the farther east the more likelihood of rain.Indeed, cut-off systems are a very difficult for the models to handle. They usually are to fast to eject systems out into the Plains. Maybe if there is a slower solution, the northern piece could drop down farther south and phase a little better. The AO will be negative around the 15th-18th, should that help in anyway for the system to produce colder air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 My forecast is calling for a mix of rain and snow for next Sunday. Its a week away, but, for them to be calling out this forecast this far out, looks very interesting. Let the fun begin.It also gets quite chilly with temps barely at the 40 degree mark for highs and lows in the 20's to near 30. BTW..snowqualls around today made for an fun day. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 It will be very interesting to see what kind of snow totals verify for the front range and western Nebraska, the GFS has been very consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 It will be very interesting to see what kind of snow totals verify for the front range and western Nebraska, the GFS has been very consistent.I'd imagine some up-sloping winds will do the trick. Denver may finally get their first significant snow of the season. Scary how consistent the GFS has been. 00z GFS showing the GOM transport coming north into MO/IL and Tekarkana region... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 06z GFS still targeting CO/W KS/W NE with snow... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111406/gfs_asnow_us_19.png Another heavy precip maker on the way...might have some flooding/training storms in the Midwest... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 I like that map for my location in Central Nebraska. Models will be getting a better handle on this in the coming days so we are bound to see changes to exact location of snow. Most local TV weather guys are on the fence. The farther west in Nebraska the greater likelihood of snow and the farther east the more likelihood of rain.RPM model showed a transition to snow in C NE right where you live. I think models are under doing the cold pocket with this storm system. You may squeeze out a few inches outta this storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 06z GFS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111506/gfs_asnow_ncus_22.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 06z NAM...prob overdone, but getting close to you CentralNeWeather... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12z GFS a little more generous with the snow for NE... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111512/gfs_asnow_ncus_16.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Getting close to my doorstep. Nws Hastings still talking wet snow Tuesday night. Waiting on upcoming runs to talk specific accumulations. Rain snow line will be important and snow at night would cause greater amounts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 12z Euro deepens this system to as low as 988mb in C KS and has a band of 6-15" of snow in NW KS northeast into C NE...dumps the most in NW KS this run. Euro just turned into your favor CentralNebWeather! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Tom. I know I am getting more and more excited. Waiting for the afternoon forecast discussion to see what local forecasters will ultimately decide. Thanks for thinking of me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Tom, can you post the 12z euro snowfall map? Thanks again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Primary low in Canada really bombs out near Hudson Bay on Thursday. Unleashes the Arctic air. Don't think I believe 21", but maybe a broad area of 4-8". Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Tom, can you post the 12z euro snowfall map? Thanks again.Here you go... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Blizzard watch out again for SW Nebraska and NW Kansas.seems to be the hot spot this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 Blizzard watch out again for SW Nebraska and NW Kansas.seems to be the hot spot this year.Thanks for the heads up! 2nd Blizzard in less than a week...if this is the trend for this Winter season, we're going to have one hellova time tracking these systems! Blizzard WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS251 PM MST SUN NOV 15 2015 A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ANDTRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND SNOWAMOUNTS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE TRI-STATEREGION OF COLORADO...KANSAS...AND NEBRASKA WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW ANDTHE POSSIBILITY FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. KSZ001>003-013-014-027-NEZ079>081-160600-/O.NEW.KGLD.BZ.A.0002.151117T1200Z-151118T0600Z/CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. FRANCIS...ATWOOD...OBERLIN...GOODLAND...COLBY...SHARON SPRINGS...BENKELMAN...TRENTON...MCCOOK251 PM MST SUN NOV 15 2015 /351 PM CST SUN NOV 15 2015/ ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHTUESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYEVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST KANSASAND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER 5 AM MST/6AM MDT TUESDAY BEFORECONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALLAND LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR FROM MID MORNING TUESDAYTHROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY DEVELOP AND CREATEWHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONSAND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ROAD CLOSURES. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINEWITH SNOW OR BLOWING SNOW TO PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. TRAVELMAY BECOME EXTREMELY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE WHICH COULDRESULT IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. STAY TUNED FOR LATERFORECASTS AND UPDATES ON THIS WINTER STORM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 my area and west. Nws Hastings: Could see a Winter Storm Watch being issued for our western most counties if confidence in deformation band location increases for those areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 I have lived in central Nebraska my entire life and don't remember 2 blizzard watches issued in one week before. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 15, 2015 Report Share Posted November 15, 2015 18z gfs maintains strong snowstorm for next weekend. 6" plus for most of Iowa into Illinois and Nebraska as well 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 NWS Hastings: I live in the county just southwest of Kearney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 NWS Hastings: I live in the county just southwest of Kearney. CT5gdwDUcAAuHHK.png Yeah I think you will get accumulation. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 16, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Blizzard Warnings up in CO...also will be likely hoisted for NW KS/S NE... http://www.weather.gov/images/bou/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=63599 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 looks like we'll get another inch of rain here. LAME!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Cold air just can't get around to meet up with these huge storms. D**n shame, this November could have been something special. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Really frustrating. We might look back and say what might have been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 And of course it will get cold once the stormy pattern is gone, leaving us with the cold and dry crap to end November. I swear in Nebraska it's impossible to get the cold air and storm around at the same time. Seems like the cold air is always 1 day behind the storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2015 Report Share Posted November 16, 2015 Cold air just can't get around to meet up with these huge storms. D**n shame, this November could have been something special. Either need the NAO or the AO to drop off in order to dislodge that cold air further north. Newest snow map from the NAM. Pivotalweather.com map Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 NAM seemed to inch some snow a hair further east. Hopefully some of you guys in central NE can get a little surprise tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 You are right Andrew the nam has pushed the snow line farther east. Hopefully this trend continues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Using Jim Flowers 30 day Theory, this storm is going to be fun to track in mid December! By then, Euro Weeklies/CFSv2 is seeing blocking over the top. Living in the Plains, you folks have some very interesting weather that happens this time of year. I love watching these dynamic systems just blossom as they skirt the Rockies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Tom we have had small hail at my house, torrential rain, and a tornado just to my southwest and hopefully some snow tomorrow afternoon. Already some school closing out west tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Here you go Nebraska guys. 4km NAM pushing the snow even farther east. 12km NAM. Several of you are lookin' better! 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Here you go Nebraska guys. 4km NAM pushing the snow even farther east. 4kmNAM_PlainsSnow_111815.jpgHas a ways to go before I see any of the white stuff....I just want a heavy dose of rain and for this storm to cycle back and affect me in the heart of winter!! I'll gladly take the rain, I recently tilled up part of my lawn and put a big load of chicken crap on it. Come this spring time hopefully a lot of precipitation has fallen and allows that soil to mellow out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Seems like this storm is digging better and taking a jog SE. The Euro picked up on this yesterday and now today's 00z runs are showing it. 00z GFS a tad farther east with the snow band from its 06z/12z runs... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111700/gfs_asnow_ncus_8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Thanks geos. Hope this movement continues east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Has a ways to go before I see any of the white stuff....I just want a heavy dose of rain and for this storm to cycle back and affect me in the heart of winter!! I'll gladly take the rain, I recently tilled up part of my lawn and put a big load of chicken crap on it. Come this spring time hopefully a lot of precipitation has fallen and allows that soil to mellow out. Maybe you can get some snow to at least fly in the air. Yeah you need a good rain to work those nutrients from the Chicken crap into the soil! haha GFS snowfall map with some totals. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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