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Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

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#101
Tom

Posted 25 November 2016 - 07:15 AM

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There's just some weird stuff going on right now for sure. What's funny though, right now, is that the Euro is still a massive outlier even going beyond day 5. It doesn't really know what to do after the block over the Pacific relaxes and drifts back east. I'm riding a blend of the GFS, GEFS, and CFS going through the next 2 weeks. They have been dominating in the stratosphere and mjo forecasts for 2 months solid now.

Very true, those models have been dominating, even JB brought up how the Euro has been horrible beyond Day 10 (criticizing his fav model).



#102
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 November 2016 - 07:27 AM

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Very true, those models have been dominating, even JB brought up how the Euro has been horrible beyond Day 10 (criticizing his fav model).


The last 8 or so weeklies I have seen just keep kicking the same pattern out but moving it back a week. That's why they have really become not worth making mention of like I normally would.

Is the image you posted above the Euro?

#103
Tom

Posted 25 November 2016 - 07:38 AM

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The last 8 or so weeklies I have seen just keep kicking the same pattern out but moving it back a week. That's why they have really become not worth making mention of like I normally would.
Is the image you posted above the Euro?


No, it was the GEFS...

#104
gosaints

Posted 25 November 2016 - 08:57 AM

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Hard to get.excited when nothing of substance get inside of 10-12 days.

#105
jaster220

Posted 25 November 2016 - 09:57 AM

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Hard to get.excited when nothing of substance get inside of 10-12 days.

 

Come on man!  You get wind  :ph34r:  :wacko:


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#106
gosaints

Posted 25 November 2016 - 10:00 AM

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Wind and soil moisture!!!!!
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#107
jaster220

Posted 25 November 2016 - 11:34 AM

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;)  The Crank had some good reminders on model grasping beyond a few days, and this one about what happened to a fantasy storm for this period:

 

 

 

On a more humorous note, this from Juneau, AK's recent AFD I found hilarious  :lol:

 

 

 

 


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#108
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 November 2016 - 12:03 PM

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;) The Crank had some good reminders on model grasping beyond a few days, and this one about what happened to a fantasy storm for this period:

attachicon.gif20161125 Crank post on model overamplification.PNG


On a more humorous note, this from Juneau, AK's recent AFD I found hilarious :lol:

attachicon.gif20161125 NWS Juneau AK afd.PNG


Best model description ever. Lol.

#109
Niko

Posted 25 November 2016 - 12:49 PM

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Accu-weather has December quite cold with some snowfor the midwest. Now lets see how that goes :unsure: .



#110
Niko

Posted 25 November 2016 - 12:51 PM

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We need to have white ground in December to get into the holiday spirit. I feel confident we will, especially, near and around the Great Lakes region. It will all start in December. ;)


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#111
Tom

Posted 26 November 2016 - 06:40 AM

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I"m going to start a December thread...


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#112
NEJeremy

Posted 26 November 2016 - 06:46 AM

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It's depressing to keep seeing 16 day forecasts on the GFS that literally show no snow for eastern Nebraska. Maybe Jim's forecast of a snowy December is going to be wrong.

#113
Tom

Posted 26 November 2016 - 07:04 AM

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It's interesting looking at the 2m temp anomalies over Hudson Bay and S/SE Canada after the 8th, the model may be keeping a warm bias due to the abnormally warm waters, as well as near the Great Lakes.

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_52.png

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png



#114
Tom

Posted 26 November 2016 - 07:31 AM

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Gary Lezak mentioned that in the LRC pattern, there are "harmonic" mini cycles within the entire LRC pattern cycle.  I think one feature is showing up and it's the cut-off low which is forecast to sit and spin near the 4 corners Dec 2-5th.  Coincidentally, I remember this storm very well as I drove through it coming here from Chicago.  This energy then ejected out into the Plains states with lots of moisture back on Nov 2-5th which lacked cold air.  I know this is still 7-10 days away, but with arctic air on the horizon and eyes for the lower 48, this could be a potential set up for a wintry system during the opening week of December.

 

In the meantime, we need to see what happens with the large ULL that is forecast to spin over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes this week before the models get a good handle on this energy and the driving northern branch coming out of Canada in early December.  How and when these pieces interact will be the question over the coming days.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_41.png

 

 

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_43.png



#115
jaster220

Posted 26 November 2016 - 07:34 AM

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I"m going to start a December thread...

 

 

Peek-a-boo  :P  looks like somebody beat you to that..

 

http://theweatherfor...016-discussion/

 

 

This was from the tail end of their video of the recent NY storm. This was my December commute in the north-lands circa 1995. Fond memories I'll keep of a region where winter looks so pristine most of the time with frequent LES. Dec of '92 we actually had measurable snow 30/31 days in Traverse City.

 

 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#116
OKwx2k4

Posted 26 November 2016 - 09:43 AM

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Peek-a-boo :P looks like somebody beat you to that..

http://theweatherfor...016-discussion/


This was from the tail end of their video of the recent NY storm. This was my December commute in the north-lands circa 1995. Fond memories I'll keep of a region where winter looks so pristine most of the time with frequent LES. Dec of '92 we actually had measurable snow 30/31 days in Traverse City.

20161126 ABC news vid on NY LES storm.PNG


One of my top 3 favorite things in nature is seeing pure, untouched snow.
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#117
Niko

Posted 26 November 2016 - 02:23 PM

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I think after next week, things will get active weatherwise, in terms of snowfall and colder temps.



#118
Tom

Posted 27 November 2016 - 12:01 PM

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12z GEPS seeing the CO Low Day 9-10....

 

gem-ens_mslpa_us_37.png

 

gem-ens_mslpa_us_42.png



#119
Tom

Posted 27 November 2016 - 01:08 PM

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12z EPS agreeing with the JMA on track...

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_9.png

 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_9.png

 

 

 

Interesting suite of runs today and it's ensemble packages...guess this pattern may begin to show signs of life...


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#120
Tom

Posted 27 November 2016 - 01:10 PM

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12z EPS also seeing the CO Low Day 10 with loads of arctic air creeping south...

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png



#121
Money

Posted 27 November 2016 - 01:19 PM

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Tom, how do the actual ensembles look with snowfall?



#122
Tom

Posted 27 November 2016 - 01:52 PM

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Tom, how do the actual ensembles look with snowfall?

Don't have WxBell subscription yet...maybe Okwx can post or if Bud has them...



#123
Money

Posted 27 November 2016 - 03:04 PM

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18z GFS was pretty awful. 



#124
GDR

Posted 27 November 2016 - 03:50 PM

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I second that. Punt and move on please

#125
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 27 November 2016 - 09:08 PM

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00z CMC has a Colorado low at 240, I think it's the same one, but there's such a time discrepancy I don't feel confident saying for sure, regardless, the cold source modeled is not quite what did like to see. Plenty behind it, but not sure if there's enough in front of it to make things happen.

2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 10.2"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 1.4")
 

 

 

 

7cd6ec0da9b0ff60a2d3ac3f2ebcfe1f.png

 

 


#126
Money

Posted 27 November 2016 - 10:36 PM

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What do we have here?

 

sfcmslp.conus.png

 

850tw.conus.png



#127
Money

Posted 27 November 2016 - 10:43 PM

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HR 192:

 

sfcmslp.conus.png

 

850tw.conus.png

 

This is what the 12z JMA hinted at earlier except this is even much stronger/west than that.

 

Anyone have snow maps?



#128
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 November 2016 - 11:02 PM

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Well, this is new...

Attached File  ecmwf_tsnow_conus2_37.png   195.04KB   3 downloads


Please please please give me this!

#129
Money

Posted 27 November 2016 - 11:04 PM

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Well, this is new...

attachicon.gifecmwf_tsnow_conus2_37.png


Please please please give me this!

 

Yeah, came out of nowhere really. Looks like the high down south moves out quicker and doesn't suppress the storm like other models?



#130
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 November 2016 - 11:12 PM

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Well, if that even comes close to verifying, it means that the GFS and CFS pretty much had the best setup all along. Really impressive for the weaker models.

#131
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 November 2016 - 11:29 PM

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Day 10 GFS
Not as impressive.
Attached File  gfs_6hr_snow_acc_conus2_41.png   191.58KB   0 downloads

#132
Money

Posted 27 November 2016 - 11:33 PM

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Yeah, I doubt the Euro verifies but it's fun to look at, and this past storm really was not on the models until around this time frame. 

 

The low comes out from around the LA area and moves due north. How often does that happen?



#133
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 November 2016 - 11:43 PM

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Surprisingly, some of the greatest storms in both my and the great Lakes' history have happened that way. I thought up until yesterday and tonight that the models didn't make sense with their teleconnections but this actually does. Definitely won't say it is going to happen because the ECMWF is the most west based.

#134
Tom

Posted 28 November 2016 - 05:20 AM

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00z EPS still looking good for the late weekend system.  It's getting colder down south towards OK as well.  Looks like a Gulf/OV cutter is on the table.  Unfortunately, it is the outlier, but we are getting closer to Day 5 where the Euro does better.  The problem I think the GFS is having (oddly enough its usually the EURO) is it keeps the energy farther west and south into the Baja of Mexico longer than the Euro/JMA.  Euro has the energy dig and move east, but the GFS just has it dig farther south and spins in N Mexico before ejecting out

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_24.png

 

Sits there till next Monday...

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_31.png

 

 

 

 

00z EPS...

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_7.png

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_8.png

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png



#135
Tom

Posted 28 November 2016 - 06:42 AM

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06z GEFS showing the CO LOW Day 8-9...

 

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_32.png

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_36.png



#136
Tom

Posted 28 November 2016 - 06:53 AM

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The GFS has a more dominant northern energy compared to the Euro and JMA with the late weekend storm.  So far this season, JMA has done well outside of 5 days, Euro has not...will it be time for the Euro to score a coupe???  Today's runs should be interesting if all the models begin to trend similarly.  Let the battle begin...

 

 

Euro...

 

ecmwf_mslpa_namer_7.png

 

vs...GFS...

 

gfs_mslpa_namer_24.png



#137
Niko

Posted 28 November 2016 - 06:55 AM

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Hopefully, by the weekend, the models will have more accurate info.



#138
Tom

Posted 28 November 2016 - 08:24 AM

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12z GFS still not enthusiastic with the late weekend system...keeps the cut-off low down south through the weekend...

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_27.png



#139
Tom

Posted 28 November 2016 - 08:56 AM

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12z GFS...

 

snku_acc.conus.png


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#140
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 November 2016 - 09:00 AM

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That's enthusiastic enough for me. :-)

#141
Tom

Posted 28 November 2016 - 09:04 AM

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Gosh, I wonder how all this plays out...Euro/JMA going with the cycling pattern, GFS not quite, but it is going back to the fantasy land storm outside Day 10.



#142
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 November 2016 - 09:24 AM

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Attached File  snow 10.gif   44.48KB   0 downloads

 

Still a ways out.  However, it has shown up from time to time.  Fun to look at regardless.  



#143
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2016 - 09:29 AM

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attachicon.gifsnow 10.gif

 

Still a ways out.  However, it has shown up from time to time.  Fun to look at regardless.  

 

That's the beginning of Tom's map above that goes out further. Wish yours was a 120 hr map. Maybe it will be this Saturday lol.


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#144
Tom

Posted 28 November 2016 - 09:32 AM

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attachicon.gifsnow 10.gif

 

Still a ways out.  However, it has shown up from time to time.  Fun to look at regardless.  

Did you copy and paste that image from their website???  I tried saving it before and/or copying but it wouldn't work.  Curious how you were able to get that image on here.



#145
Tom

Posted 28 November 2016 - 09:33 AM

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@ Jaster, here you go...

 

 



#146
Tom

Posted 28 November 2016 - 09:34 AM

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@ CentralNeb, guess the site now allows you to copy and paste images.  They disallowed that before.



#147
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2016 - 09:45 AM

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@ Jaster, here you go...

 

USA_ASNOWI72_sfc_276.gif

 

Not showing any map Tom, just some error message text


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#148
Tom

Posted 28 November 2016 - 09:48 AM

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Not showing any map Tom, just some error message text

Try now...



#149
CentralNebWeather

Posted 28 November 2016 - 10:19 AM

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I didn't know that Tom about copying from their site.  I just saved the image to my computer, went to more reply options, and then choose files before adding it.  

 

Did you copy and paste that image from their website???  I tried saving it before and/or copying but it wouldn't work.  Curious how you were able to get that image on here.

I didn't know that Tom about copying from their site.  I just saved the image to my computer, went to more reply options, and then choose files before adding it.  



#150
jaster220

Posted 28 November 2016 - 10:30 AM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse Jan '14

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  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

12z GFS...

 

snku_acc.conus.png

 

@ Jaster, here you go...

 

:lol: Where'd I go?  You gave me more snow with the 1st image, even though it was 12 hrs less of storm time  :blink:  :blink:


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 32.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 7.8 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."