3/13 - 3/14 Midwest/Lakes Snow System

[Money]

0z NAM through 36 is north of 18z a bit. Looks like more precip as well.

[bud2380]

18z NAM was already pretty far north compared to GFS, GGEM & UK and it looks like it will be even further north this run. 

[bud2380]

actually doesn't seem drastically further north, but it looks to be a touch further north at 48 hours.

[Money]

actually doesn't seem drastically further north, but it looks to be a touch further north at 48 hours.

 

Low is in eastern SD at HR 51

[bud2380]

Definitely a solid 50-75 mile shift north with the snow placement for most areas.  Yuck, rinse, repeat all winter long. 

[bud2380]

Hopefully this is just the NAM being the NAM, but the Euro looks similar so that is worrisome. GFS, Canadian, & UK are significantly further south, we'll see if they shift north, I'm guessing they will.

[Money]

Some good banding going on at HR 60 with a bit more QPF than 18z

[bud2380]

Well I'm even approaching 4" on this run and the NAM is quite possibly the furthest north of all the guidance.  If the GFS shifts significantly north tonight then I think I'm in trouble.  I don't like what the Euro is showing at all though and I'm very concerned it will end up the most accurate. 

[bud2380]

Drop 50-75 miles SW please.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017031100/069/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

Total:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017031100/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

Tom, what are your thoughts on this? Northern camp, southern camp?

[Tom]

Tom, what are your thoughts on this? Northern camp, southern camp?

Would like to see the GFS/RPM run tonight. RPM does well at this range. NAM is earily similar to the Euro in track thru IA so won't discount it. Let's see the runs tonight.

[Tom]

Just saw the RPM and it looked the same as it did earlier. One thing it's picking up on are distinct lake bands coming off the lake later Monday evening when the system snow departs. The run stopped at about 7pm Monday but the lake snow will prob continue into Tuesday.

[Money]

RGEM had a good bump north from 18z...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017031100/039/prateptype.conus.png

[GDR]

Up up and away!! Hurry up spring, I'm tired of this big tured

[Niko]

18z GFS looks decent.

[bud2380]

Looks a bit further north than 18z run but further south than nam

[Money]

Looks a bit further north than 18z run but further south than nam

 

Yeah it's the same strength but a tad north of 18z. 

[bud2380]

Overall looks pretty good for much of Iowa.  Not a huge shift. 

[Tom]

RPM showed close to 4" for ORD thru Monday 7pm and that's about when the lake enhancement kicks in.

[bud2380]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031100/066/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

GFS showing some good LEHS for Milwaukee...

[Tom]

3-4" for most of N IL by Monday night and it was still snowing on the RPM.

[Money]

Some nice signals showing up for eastern WI/N. IL

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031100/078/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

[BrianJK]

3-4" for most of N IL by Monday night and it was still snowing on the RPM.

Barf. Fingers crossed for a dramatic shift tonight.

[Money]

Again at HR 84:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031100/084/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031100/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

RPM showed close to 4" for ORD thru Monday 7pm and that's about when the lake enhancement kicks in.

 

Would a stronger storm be good or bad for LE snow or doesn't it matter? 

[bud2380]

Canadian

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif

[Money]

Canadian

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif

 

 

Looks north of GFS I think..

[Money]

D**n. GFS keeps LE going for 12-18+ hours this run. Almost 9 inches in MKE, 6 in Chicago

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031100/096/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Would a stronger storm be good or bad for LE snow or doesn't it matter? 

I don't think it matters bc 850's will be cold and the wind trajectory is lining up for a perfect setup.

 

Uptick in lake moisture for SE WI/NE IL...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017031100/gfs_apcpn_ncus_17.png

[Tom]

D**n. GFS keeps LE going for 12-18+ hours this run. Almost 9 inches in MKE, 6 in Chicago

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017031100/096/snku_acc.us_mw.png

This is a BIG signal this far out.  From past experience, when I see this amount of snow from Lehs/LES, it usually over performs.  I could see some hefty totals lakeside.

[Money]

GEM def more QPF this run in WI/MN/IL

 

Takes the low nearly identical to the NAM

[Money]

This is a BIG signal this far out.  From past experience, when I see this amount of snow from Lehs/LES, it usually over performs.  I could see some hefty totals lakeside.

 

Even the GEM is picking up on the enhanced precip along the lake. And this is 3 days out, usually that stuff doesn't get pinned down until the event.

 

.6+ QPF along the lake 

[Money]

Once Kuchera maps come out I'll post it, but Chicago/S. WI/IA etc all .5-.6 QPF + Some .8 QPF showing up near Sheboygan/Milwaukee 

[Tom]

It's looking intriguing for sure.  The last time I saw something like this was in Jan '14 but this event could be more prolonged. 

[Tom]

Once Kuchera maps come out I'll post it, but Chicago/S. WI/IA etc all .5-.6 QPF + Some .8 QPF showing up near Sheboygan/Milwaukee 

Also, lake effect snows are likely 20:1 ratios or higher so those added qpf totals from the lake will fluff up big time.

[Money]

Also, lake effect snows are likely 20:1 ratios or higher so those added qpf totals from the lake will fluff up big time.

 

Interesting how GEM had no LE at all on the 12z run. 

 

0z has a ton. Some good bands showing up on it 

[Tom]

00z GFS...total qpf...

[Money]

There was one LE event back in March 3rd, 2009 that hit Milwaukee international airport with 14 inches of snow while 15-20 miles inland they got nothing

 

y 6 p.m. Monday, Milwaukee's Mitchell International Airport had recorded 14.4 inches of the light snow, beating the previous record snowfall on the same date of 9.4 inches in 2002.

 

Eight inches had fallen by daybreak, and the snow hampered commuters in the lakeshore areas of southeastern Wisconsin.

 

Snow plows worked through the day to clear roadways as the snow continued off and on.