Tom Posted September 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 ORD's predicted high of 95F would tie the highest temp of the year which was reached back on June 12th! Impressive late-season heat...since I was in AZ back then, I say, lets do it! For those who need cooler thoughts, predicted early season snow fell across Siberia/Russia yesterday. About 7-10 days ahead of schedule in this part of the world. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif October 1st Climatology... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 It feels like mid Summer. Gorgeous weather, but, way too warm for this time of the year. At least 20 degrees above normal. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 A friend of mine emailed me this pic from NW New Jersey representing some cloud cover from TS Jose who was once a hurricane. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Not to be a Debbie Downer here, but sorry I don't believe a tree can predict the weather and know whether winter is coming early or not or whether it's going to be harsh. Sometimes I think we look for signs like this to try and create a belief in something we're wanting(like a harsh winter), just like the fuzzy bear caterpillar myth. There's been plenty of times where all I see are pics of those caterpillars with whatever color on them that means a bad winter, and then we get 9" of snow total and it's 40 degrees all winter long The reason a tree changes colors of course is due to lack of chlorophyl caused by some environmental factor(shorter days, drought, heat, colder nights, bugs, too much moisture, humans, etc). Changing early is because of one of those reasons, not because we're going to get a blizzard on October 5th this year and it's going to be below zero for all of December. http://www.usna.usda.gov/PhotoGallery/FallFoliage/ScienceFallColor.html To the bolded portion - 100% agree! Some of our earliest memorable October snows have hit in pre-Nino autumns ('97 for example) and caused a bunch of damage because there were still so many trees with full green leaves on them. By discussing this side-topic of the wx, I'm not saying there's a verifiable proof that nature somehow gets a signal about the upcoming winter. But, to me it's an interesting topic because I like mysterious things that aren't already explained and quantified neatly in a scientific box, lol. We here in SMI have all posted that colors are (seem to us from memory) to be quite early. As said before, I don't think it's solely because of dry conditions. I don't think at tree root level, the water table has been that depleted. Early on in the spring we were super wet and we did have a wet and green July. This article agrees with my comment on "drought dropping" of leafs: Now, if early turning leafs are or aren't a sign of an early winter, we'll find out. I don't personally remember anything uniquely early about the progression of leaf change back in the super front-loaded autumn of 2000-01, nor further back in 1989 for that matter. I mentioned the debate (on another forum by a local SWMI poster) back in 2013 with someone much more knowledgeable than myself on whether nature could "get advanced warning" of an impending extremely harsh winter? He was adamant that there were many, many signs that screamed of a harsh winter impending, and yeah, we had like the harshest winter in at least 130 yrs, and likely closer to 200 yrs (1812-13). So, early vs late winter may not be foretold, but there's at least a recent clear example over in this region of a severe winter being recognized by nature. How exactly?? That's a major unsolved mystery if you ask me.. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 To the bolded portion - 100% agree! Some of our earliest memorable October snows have hit in pre-Nino autumns ('97 for example) and caused a bunch of damage because there were still so many trees with full green leaves on them. By discussing this side-topic of the wx, I'm not saying there's a verifiable proof that nature somehow gets a signal about the upcoming winter. But, to me it's an interesting topic because I like mysterious things that aren't already explained and quantified neatly in a scientific box, lol. We here in SMI have all posted that colors are (seem to us from memory) to be quite early. As said before, I don't think it's solely because of dry conditions. I don't think at tree root level, the water table has been that depleted. Early on in the spring we were super wet and we did have a wet and green July. This article agrees with my comment on "drought dropping" of leafs: 20170922 Autumn leaf color article.PNG Now, if early turning leafs are or aren't a sign of an early winter, we'll find out. I don't personally remember anything uniquely early about the progression of leaf change back in the super front-loaded autumn of 2000-01, nor further back in 1989 for that matter. I mentioned the debate (on another forum by a local SWMI poster) back in 2013 with someone much more knowledgeable than myself on whether nature could "get advanced warning" of an impending extremely harsh winter? He was adamant that there were many, many signs that screamed of a harsh winter impending, and yeah, we had like the harshest winter in at least 130 yrs, and likely closer to 200 yrs (1812-13). So, early vs late winter may not be foretold, but there's at least a recent clear example over in this region of a severe winter being recognized by nature. How exactly?? That's a major unsolved mystery if you ask me.. Was Winter 1812-13 more severe than 2013-14?! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 With Yesterday’s high of 95° Grand Rapids not only set new record high for September 21st it also was the latest that it has ever been this hot. It was also the hottest day Grand Rapids has had in September since September 8th 1960. The current record highs for the next several days is 90° so as Tom said we will have a chance of more records to be set. Well, I personally feel that this record heatwave is the "last hurrah" of the delayed effects from our Super-Nino two years ago. Always darkest before the dawn, coldest before the heat, etc, etc, etc. We also witnessed the record warmth of 2010-2012 (think Morch of 2012 as that period's last hurrah!), followed by the chill of 2013-15 (think icebox of Feb 2015 as that period's last hurrah!), and this heatwave kinda makes sense. Those infamous late 70's winters came at the very end of a long run of below average winter seasons (see OKwx24's chart he posted), and right as/after the PDO flipped to a state that favored El Nino's and warmer winters across the Midwest. This is a very impressive and extreme heat rage! In my opinion, nature will have to balance this at some point..beware the balancing! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 @Jaster, I agree, weather at some point has to balance. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Was Winter 1812-13 more severe than 2013-14?! Since there aren't any official records I'm aware of, my statement is somewhat based on "anecdotal evidence" as they say. And I may be off a year, it may have been 1811-12. We do know how bad that winter was in London England from historical records/stories (think Courier and Ives scenes of sleds on snow), and also, I've read history on the war of 1812 and how the Americans had to abandon their fort at Detroit. They fled by foot and dragged their wounded across the frozen Detroit River into Canada! In our harshest winters, I've never known the Detroit River to get anywhere close to a freeze up! That winter must've been off the charts cold. (doesn't mean it was snowy like 2013-14 ofc). That's one of the issues with the relative brevity of our wx records, we only know the recent extremes. It doesn't take 500 yrs worth of data to come up with accurate averages, but the extremes in both directions are likely greater than what we think due to such a short period of record. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Well, I personally feel that this record heatwave is the "last hurrah" of the delayed effects from our Super-Nino two years ago. Always darkest before the dawn, coldest before the heat, etc, etc, etc. We also witnessed the record warmth of 2010-2012 (think Morch of 2012 as that period's last hurrah!), followed by the chill of 2013-15 (think icebox of Feb 2015 as that period's last hurrah!), and this heatwave kinda makes sense. Those infamous late 70's winters came at the very end of a long run of below average winter seasons (see OKwx24's chart he posted), and right as/after the PDO flipped to a state that favored El Nino's and warmer winters across the Midwest. This is a very impressive and extreme heat rage! In my opinion, nature will have to balance this at some point..beware the balancing! I meant to include that Joe B. has noted the continuing drop in global SST's post-Super Nino! That will have and is having it's own delayed reaction atmospherically speaking. Fun stuff. As we are also heading towards the sunspot cycle #23 minimum, all we'd need is a major volcano to blow it's lid, and things could get scary cold quickly. Ofc, even without the volcanic component, odds are we're heading into a backdrop of "coolness" overall, if not cold. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Roughly 4 days out from the cold front passing thru here, and GFS and Euro can't get their act together on the intensity or duration of the colder air. Right now GFS is warmer and shorter and with the pattern we've been seeing since the start of the month, I have to believe that one. I don't want it to be true, but that seems to be the most likely solution. Fantasyland isn't much of a fantasy with wayyyyy above normal temps but that means nothing. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Since there aren't any official records I'm aware of, my statement is somewhat based on "anecdotal evidence" as they say. And I may be off a year, it may have been 1811-12. We do know how bad that winter was in London England from historical records/stories (think Courier and Ives scenes of sleds on snow), and also, I've read history on the war of 1812 and how the Americans had to abandon their fort at Detroit. They fled by foot and dragged their wounded across the frozen Detroit River into Canada! In our harshest winters, I've never known the Detroit River to get anywhere close to a freeze up! That winter must've been off the charts cold. (doesn't mean it was snowy like 2013-14 ofc). That's one of the issues with the relative brevity of our wx records, we only know the recent extremes. It doesn't take 500 yrs worth of data to come up with accurate averages, but the extremes in both directions are likely greater than what we think due to such a short period of record. Okay, thanks! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Was just outside for a few minutes and it feels sultry. I cannot believe we are getting this much heat. It feels almost unbearable outside. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Was just outside for a few minutes and it feels sultry. I cannot believe we are getting this much heat. It feels almost unbearable outside. No kidding! I did some intermittent sprints at the park down the block and if it wasn't for the color on the trees, you'd think it was mid July. Crazy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Very cool pics from twitter...the guy nicknamed it "Chicagohenge" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Had a few storms roll through this morning. Was hoping they might leave cloud cover to dampen heating, but no such luck. It is getting warm and humid out fast with the sun beating down. Can't say I really wanted July weather again in September LOL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 To the bolded portion - 100% agree! Some of our earliest memorable October snows have hit in pre-Nino autumns ('97 for example) and caused a bunch of damage because there were still so many trees with full green leaves on them. By discussing this side-topic of the wx, I'm not saying there's a verifiable proof that nature somehow gets a signal about the upcoming winter. But, to me it's an interesting topic because I like mysterious things that aren't already explained and quantified neatly in a scientific box, lol. We here in SMI have all posted that colors are (seem to us from memory) to be quite early. As said before, I don't think it's solely because of dry conditions. I don't think at tree root level, the water table has been that depleted. Early on in the spring we were super wet and we did have a wet and green July. This article agrees with my comment on "drought dropping" of leafs: 20170922 Autumn leaf color article.PNG Now, if early turning leafs are or aren't a sign of an early winter, we'll find out. I don't personally remember anything uniquely early about the progression of leaf change back in the super front-loaded autumn of 2000-01, nor further back in 1989 for that matter. I mentioned the debate (on another forum by a local SWMI poster) back in 2013 with someone much more knowledgeable than myself on whether nature could "get advanced warning" of an impending extremely harsh winter? He was adamant that there were many, many signs that screamed of a harsh winter impending, and yeah, we had like the harshest winter in at least 130 yrs, and likely closer to 200 yrs (1812-13). So, early vs late winter may not be foretold, but there's at least a recent clear example over in this region of a severe winter being recognized by nature. How exactly?? That's a major unsolved mystery if you ask me.. I agree on the part of the trees not being stressed due to the lack of water. Like you said, their roots go deep into the ground and we have had enough precip over the last 90 days (excluding pockets here and there, esp MI & IA) that soaked into the ground below. Up north in the North woods they have had more rainfall than any of us around here and their colors are changing quickly. I believe its from the very cool/dry nights back in late August. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Heat Advisories just hoisted from the Quad Cities NWS: ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...The National Weather Service in Quad Cities has issued a HeatAdvisory, which is in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening.* Heat Index Values...In the upper 90s to 100 due to temperaturesaround in the low to mod 90s...and dewpoints in the upper 60s.* Timing...Noon through 7 pm tonight.* Impacts...Those exposed to the heat could suffer heat relatedillnesses if special precautions aren`t taken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 New EPS weekies are out. Yo-yo pattern continues with ridges dominating here and troughs dominating in the West. Interesting enough, it shows below normal temps all the way into Late Oct. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 New EPS weekies are out. Yo-yo pattern continues with ridges dominating here and troughs dominating in the West. Interesting enough, it shows below normal temps all the way into Late Oct. So its safe to say CFSv2 and Euro are not agreeing, ay??? CFSv2 is showing ridges out west while Euro troughs...hmmm, this is a good "test" I'd say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Heat Advisories hoisted for many members on here...expanded to include most of IA into MN/WI... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 This heat is giving me a headache. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 This heat is giving me a headache.Drink Agua amigo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 No kidding! I did some intermittent sprints at the park down the block and if it wasn't for the color on the trees, you'd think it was mid July. Crazy. Tell me about it. Crazy stuff indeed. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Drink Agua amigo! This heat is giving me a headache.Avoid being outside and take extra precaution. I recommend Indoor activities and drink lots of fluids. Stay in a cool, air conditioned environment. That should help your headache. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Normal high is 74. It was 74 at 6am. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Btw, broke the record high yesterday of 92.5F set back in 1931. Already currently at 88F and going for another record today. Amazing stuff. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 So its safe to say CFSv2 and Euro are not agreeing, ay??? CFSv2 is showing ridges out west while Euro troughs...hmmm, this is a good "test" I'd say. I thought those week 3 & 4 maps u posted had ridging for us, no? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 I thought those week 3 & 4 maps u posted had ridging for us, no?No...Week 3 showing PAC NW/W NAMER ridge....Week 4 a SW/W coast Ridge... http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20170921.z500.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 I have not seen the Euro weeklies, but if its showing a trough in the west and ridge in the East, I'd say that is pretty much opposite. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 With the latest reading of 90° GRR has already tied the record high here for September 22nd The official readings are 90° with a DP of 67° here at my house I have a reading of 89° with a DP of 72° Went for my walk and boy it feels and even smells like Florida out there. Also of note there is not much wind generally here in Michigan when it gets very warm in the fall and or spring there is a little wind. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 To the bolded portion - 100% agree! Some of our earliest memorable October snows have hit in pre-Nino autumns ('97 for example) and caused a bunch of damage because there were still so many trees with full green leaves on them. By discussing this side-topic of the wx, I'm not saying there's a verifiable proof that nature somehow gets a signal about the upcoming winter. But, to me it's an interesting topic because I like mysterious things that aren't already explained and quantified neatly in a scientific box, lol. We here in SMI have all posted that colors are (seem to us from memory) to be quite early. As said before, I don't think it's solely because of dry conditions. I don't think at tree root level, the water table has been that depleted. Early on in the spring we were super wet and we did have a wet and green July. This article agrees with my comment on "drought dropping" of leafs: 20170922 Autumn leaf color article.PNG Now, if early turning leafs are or aren't a sign of an early winter, we'll find out. I don't personally remember anything uniquely early about the progression of leaf change back in the super front-loaded autumn of 2000-01, nor further back in 1989 for that matter. I mentioned the debate (on another forum by a local SWMI poster) back in 2013 with someone much more knowledgeable than myself on whether nature could "get advanced warning" of an impending extremely harsh winter? He was adamant that there were many, many signs that screamed of a harsh winter impending, and yeah, we had like the harshest winter in at least 130 yrs, and likely closer to 200 yrs (1812-13). So, early vs late winter may not be foretold, but there's at least a recent clear example over in this region of a severe winter being recognized by nature. How exactly?? That's a major unsolved mystery if you ask me.. I also was looking at past dry September’s and seeing how the next winter ended up. Well for starters there have not been that many dry September’s in the past years that stand out at GRR are 2002,2004,1979 the driest September at GRR with just a T, 1969,1950,1940,1932, and 1929. Of all of the dry September’s the only ones that had dry July’s and August (like this year) are 1950 and 1929. As 2002 and 2004 were not that long ago I do not recall the leaves changing or falling that early. Now for 1950 and 1929 will I don’t know. In the two winters 1950/51 was a somewhat colder and snowier winter than average 1929/30 was less snow that average. But December and January were cold and snowy. The other winters 1930/31 less than average snow. 1940/41 less that average snow, 1969/70 above average snow, 1979/80 much less than average snow, 2004/05 above average snow, 2002/03 above average snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 With the latest reading of 90° GRR has already tied the record high here for September 22nd The official readings are 90° with a DP of 67° here at my house I have a reading of 89° with a DP of 72° Went for my walk and boy it feels and even smells like Florida out there. Also of note there is not much wind generally here in Michigan when it gets very warm in the fall and or spring there is a little wind.Its almost hot out there. Go figure! More record highs will be broken in my area today!! Currently @88F. No wind! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Heat Advisories hoisted for many members on here...expanded to include most of IA into MN/WI...Wimps. We don't need no heat advisory 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 New record at GRR the high so far today at Grand Rapids is 92° (should get hotter yet) and this is a new record for GRR. Here at my house I now have a reading of 91° with a DP of 72° (the DP at the airport is 66°) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Happy first day of Fall!! I mean.......summer???? Wait......what?!Just hit 90° 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 ORD smashed another record high today. Current temp 93F and will likely climb...might surpass the year's high temp of 95F. It feels, and smells like summer out there today. Thankfully, the suns angle is not as direct in late Sept which mitigates its rays full potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 now 94° at GRR here at my house I now have a whopping 97° I have to say this is almost unreal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 95 at both LNK airport and my balcony. 4 degrees away from the record of 99 set back in the 1930s. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 96 with a heat index of 103 here in Omaha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 22, 2017 Report Share Posted September 22, 2017 Near to below normal Fall temperatures next week! The end is finally in sight! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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