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November 17-19th Autumn storm with explosive potential for the GL's

GLs bomb
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#51
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 November 2017 - 01:30 PM

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CPC thinking big severe wx outbreak???

hazards_d3_7_contours_home.png


They used SPC's Day 5 map for their outlook.

Attached File  day5prob.gif   27.8KB   0 downloads
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#52
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 05:09 PM

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CPC thinking big severe wx outbreak???
 
hazards_d3_7_contours_home.png

  

They used SPC's Day 5 map for their outlook.
attachicon.gifday5prob.gif

Yep, meant to post that earlier. The SPC text product said that it's early yet they went big on area, but plan to narrow it down later.

#53
jaster220

Posted 13 November 2017 - 05:18 PM

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From an amatuer Met on the local board:

”So the mother of all rare parallels has happened. Back in 2013 the GFS was the first model to trend back stronger with the storm on the 17th/18th that year and the date for that trend would be Nov 13th at the 18 run with a low pressure position and strength almost identical to 2013. The date today is November 13th. Look at these 2 maps. Top one is 2013 and bottom is today's run. :o
I have been at this for 18 years with weather models and I have never seen a parallel like that. Just a few hour differences on the storm timing and a MB difference in strength. History repeating itself? Might we see a big severe outbreak/wind storm and might this actually be a sign of a monster winter? I am not sure how anyone who loves weather couldn't find excitement in this."

Attached File  post-4070-0-45815500-1510612892.png   94.97KB   4 downloads
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#54
Tom

Posted 13 November 2017 - 05:36 PM

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From an amatuer Met on the local board:

”So the mother of all rare parallels has happened. Back in 2013 the GFS was the first model to trend back stronger with the storm on the 17th/18th that year and the date for that trend would be Nov 13th at the 18 run with a low pressure position and strength almost identical to 2013. The date today is November 13th. Look at these 2 maps. Top one is 2013 and bottom is today's run. :o
I have been at this for 18 years with weather models and I have never seen a parallel like that. Just a few hour differences on the storm timing and a MB difference in strength. History repeating itself? Might we see a big severe outbreak/wind storm and might this actually be a sign of a monster winter? I am not sure how anyone who loves weather couldn't find excitement in this."

attachicon.gifpost-4070-0-45815500-1510612892.png

Wow, great post!  I find that extremely peculiar and fascinating.   That's like winning the jackpot in a Mega Millions lottery!  LOL...what are the odds of that even happening.  It seems we are getting the clues from all kinds of different directions this season.  


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#55
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:04 PM

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Wow, great post! I find that extremely peculiar and fascinating. That's like winning the jackpot in a Mega Millions lottery! LOL...what are the odds of that even happening. It seems we are getting the clues from all kinds of different directions this season.


Looks like 2013 also means it looks like 1978 too right? Awesome stuff.
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#56
jaster220

Posted 14 November 2017 - 06:19 AM

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Looks like 2013 also means it looks like 1978 too right? Awesome stuff.

 

Interestingly, 77-78 was not nearly as snowy in SMI as 13-14, unless you lived close enough to Lk Michigan to get all the NW flow LES events. Ofc, the MOAB's made that winter for the rest of the non-LES belt areas what it is known for, but the other storms were shared around the eastern CONUS during that cold season. 13-14 was an extremely focused storm track/gradient (like a cold vs of 07-08) that favored areas further east in SMI. I'm seeing a combo of those two seasons as a real possibility, with similar cold regime, the frequent snows of 13-14, plus the potential of a huge hit like this region has not seen in 40 yrs. 



#57
Niko

Posted 14 November 2017 - 06:42 AM

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The backside of this system could provide some snowshower activity, even squalls, as colder air filters in late Saturday afternoon and into the evening hours. Winds will also be howling. Temps will be falling by the pm hour into the 30s. Sunday looks blustery and downright cold with snowshowers in the air. Prolly not getting outta the low 30s for highs.


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#58
OKwx2k4

Posted 14 November 2017 - 06:44 AM

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Interestingly, 77-78 was not nearly as snowy in SMI as 13-14, unless you lived close enough to Lk Michigan to get all the NW flow LES events. Ofc, the MOAB's made that winter for the rest of the non-LES belt areas what it is known for, but the other storms were shared around the eastern CONUS during that cold season. 13-14 was an extremely focused storm track/gradient (like a cold vs of 07-08) that favored areas further east in SMI. I'm seeing a combo of those two seasons as a real possibility, with similar cold regime, the frequent snows of 13-14, plus the potential of a huge hit like this region has not seen in 40 yrs.


A lot of what I got in 2013-14 was 100 percent luck. Southern branch couldn't ever get going and was entirely driven by the northern branch with only small upper level waves all season. It was one of a kind for longevity of cold and ice or snow cover on the ground in my lifetime at least. Only a couple of years even get close to the 45 days of snow cover in 1978-79 here though.
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#59
Tom

Posted 14 November 2017 - 07:00 AM

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12z NAM splits the two pieces distinctly and leaves back energy coming out of the Rockies.  Let's see if the other models trend that way bc it may lead to a better organized system.

 

namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png


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#60
gimmesnow

Posted 14 November 2017 - 07:22 AM

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I am really hoping for snow or bust with this system. A lot of the ski hills in the GL region already blew snow and are open, a half an inch or more would be pretty rough on them.


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#61
jaster220

Posted 14 November 2017 - 07:32 AM

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@ OkWx24

 

k, thought by 78 you meant 77-78. Yeah, and same for Chicago iirc, it's the one winter (78-79) that featured solid snow cover for 60 days from mid-Dec to mid-Feb. Where I was a youth further north in MI, both were known for cold and seemingly endless snow cover. Looking at some data, looks like from Christmas of 77 until March 23rd of 78 in my native region of SEMI had 1"+ snow cvr. 78-79 snow cover ran from Christmas to first week of March, so a bit shorter. 13-14 ran from Dec 9th to March 23rd, so it trumped that 70's show by a full 2-wks. Also smoked the 70's in longevity of snow depth, tho 78's still king for max depth across SWMI.  



#62
jaster220

Posted 14 November 2017 - 07:40 AM

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12z NAM splits the two pieces distinctly and leaves back energy coming out of the Rockies.  Let's see if the other models trend that way bc it may lead to a better organized system.

 

namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png

 

Per GRR @ 3 am, this is still undecided and could trend interesting as we see the energy get better sampled

 

 

 

It is noted though that fairly significant medium range guidance
discrepancies remain in terms of the eventual track and strength of
the sfc low and also with regard to timing of the system. So
forecast confidence at this time remains only moderate at best.


#63
jaster220

Posted 14 November 2017 - 07:50 AM

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12z NAM splits the two pieces distinctly and leaves back energy coming out of the Rockies.  Let's see if the other models trend that way bc it may lead to a better organized system

 

Interesting that the GGEM has trended likewise over the last 4 cycles, backing a more defined SLP coming out of the Rockies. Hmm...

 

Attached File  20171114 0z gem_mslpa_us_fh96_trend.gif   798.06KB   0 downloads

 

Also, if this is supposed to go neg-tilt, Idk how it scoots progressively out of the GL's like some recent model runs have shown. Going back a couple days ago, they really slowed, almost stalled this storm near MI. Now, we're again starting to see models slow it down, and the cold plunge is getting noticeably sharper..I like these trends. 


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#64
OKwx2k4

Posted 14 November 2017 - 07:53 AM

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Yeah @Jaster, I've been referring to 1978-79. Sorry about the confusion. I think we've successfully ran our conversation across all the threads. Haha.
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#65
Money

Posted 14 November 2017 - 07:55 AM

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Some changes on the gfs

Low much farther south but weaker overall

#66
jaster220

Posted 14 November 2017 - 09:20 AM

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Some changes on the gfs

Low much farther south but weaker overall

 

It'd help a ton if you said which GFS, there's 4 a day and different peeps might have a pay site (vs free) that can see things before others. If you meant 12z, then yeah. But it's really progressive, and I'd lean something in between it and GGEM til it gets better sampling ingested. 



#67
jaster220

Posted 14 November 2017 - 09:22 AM

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Some of the globals appear to have trended  a tad stronger with the Wed system, which would support a further south weekend system imo.

 

Attached File  20171114 6z 48hr NavGem 500mb for Thur Nov 16.jpg   333.17KB   0 downloads 

 

 



#68
Niko

Posted 14 November 2017 - 09:45 AM

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Interesting that the GGEM has trended likewise over the last 4 cycles, backing a more defined SLP coming out of the Rockies. Hmm...

 

attachicon.gif20171114 0z gem_mslpa_us_fh96_trend.gif

 

Also, if this is supposed to go neg-tilt, Idk how it scoots progressively out of the GL's like some recent model runs have shown. Going back a couple days ago, they really slowed, almost stalled this storm near MI. Now, we're again starting to see models slow it down, and the cold plunge is getting noticeably sharper..I like these trends. 

Lets wait and see how it turns out!


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#69
jaster220

Posted 14 November 2017 - 10:08 AM

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Lets wait and see how it turns out!

 

Yep, we're in that "Wait n see" mode thanks to the lack of uppr air data ova the ocean. We've seen this before where the models flash a strong storm based on data as the system is by the Aleutian islands, then they lose it while the systems over the ocean, only to find the storm again when it make landfall. Gonna be a long couple days, lol

 

Nonetheless, per MQT's overnight AFD, it should be a very wintery first weekend of Deer Camp for most of Da Yoopers!!  :lol:

 

 

 

However, as the system lifts across Lake
Huron, colder air advection will start to return. This will favor
the transition over to moderate to heavy lake effect snow across the
west, and the potential for accumulating system/lake enhanced snow
across the central and east.
Saturday through Sunday, the main upper-
level trough will continue to slowly lift northeast of the region.
Depending on the strength of the cold air behind the system, we
could see lake effect snow showers through the weekend across the
northwest wind snow belts. As 850mb temperatures approach -10 to -15C,
inversion heights will rise and ample lake-induced CAPE is
expected to develop. Forecast soundings also show fairly deep
cloud depths and lift through the DGZ, so expect the lake effect
snow to be quite efficient with high SLRs. Therefore, the
potential is there for heavy lake effect snow Saturday and Sunday.
Given the gusty winds expected, blowing snow will likely be an
issue as well.

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#70
Niko

Posted 14 November 2017 - 12:16 PM

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Yep, we're in that "Wait n see" mode thanks to the lack of uppr air data ova the ocean. We've seen this before where the models flash a strong storm based on data as the system is by the Aleutian islands, then they lose it while the systems over the ocean, only to find the storm again when it make landfall. Gonna be a long couple days, lol

 

Nonetheless, per MQT's overnight AFD, it should be a very wintery first weekend of Deer Camp for most of Da Yoopers!!  :lol:

Great forecast for those snowbelts.....Winter weather indeed on the way for those lake effect areas.


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#71
Niko

Posted 14 November 2017 - 08:23 PM

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Per NOAA:

 

Strong but progressive upper level trough to swing through the
region on Saturday, with the trough axis going negative tilt
Saturday evening over the Eastern Great Lakes. Once again, near 100
percent chance of rain with deepening surface low progged to track
through southeast Michigan on Saturday, per 00z Euro, with 850 mb
dew pts climbing into the high single numbers. Even with that kind
of moisture, negative showalter values progged to reside just south
of the border. Interesting to note the farther northwest and milder
00z GFS solution, vs the farther southeast and colder 00Z Canadian
solution. Euro seems like nice compromise, but obviously still some
movement possible in future runs as the system is still off the
British Columbia/Pacific Northwest Coast.


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#72
jaster220

Posted 15 November 2017 - 06:56 AM

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Per NOAA:

 

Strong but progressive upper level trough to swing through the
region on Saturday, with the trough axis going negative tilt
Saturday evening over the Eastern Great Lakes. Once again, near 100
percent chance of rain with deepening surface low progged to track
through southeast Michigan on Saturday, per 00z Euro, with 850 mb
dew pts climbing into the high single numbers. Even with that kind
of moisture, negative showalter values progged to reside just south
of the border. Interesting to note the farther northwest and milder
00z GFS solution, vs the farther southeast and colder 00Z Canadian
solution. Euro seems like nice compromise, but obviously still some
movement possible in future runs as the system is still off the
British Columbia/Pacific Northwest Coast.

 

The GGEM is actually a very promising look for winter time, would be even stronger no doubt with some sub-freezing temps to work with.. :)

 

Attached File  20171115 0z 96hr GEM MSLP and anoms for Nov 18.jpg   293.16KB   0 downloads


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#73
Niko

Posted 15 November 2017 - 07:00 AM

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The GGEM is actually a very promising look for winter time, would be even stronger no doubt with some sub-freezing temps to work with.. :)

 

attachicon.gif20171115 0z 96hr GEM MSLP and anoms for Nov 18.jpg

That low is sitting at a sweet spot. That's where it should be positioned for some big time snows. :D


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#74
jaster220

Posted 15 November 2017 - 07:06 AM

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0z GFS was still flashing the potential for this to be a fairly strong SLP, even if it'd be a bit late to help SWMI much.

 

 

Attached Files



#75
Niko

Posted 15 November 2017 - 07:08 AM

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0z GFS was still flashing the potential for this to be a fairly strong SLP, even if it'd be a bit late to help SWMI much.

Just a bit more neg tilt and it will look better.


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#76
jaster220

Posted 15 November 2017 - 07:09 AM

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That low is sitting at a sweet spot. That's where it should be positioned for some big time snows. :D

 

Yeah, that GGEM run took the storm on the perfect track for heavy synoptic snows, Ofc the GFS further north but stronger would be pretty good for SWMI and LES chances. So, I'll take either later on in winter tbh.. :D


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#77
Niko

Posted 15 November 2017 - 07:57 AM

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Yeah, that GGEM run took the storm on the perfect track for heavy synoptic snows, Ofc the GFS further north but stronger would be pretty good for SWMI and LES chances. So, I'll take either later on in winter tbh.. :D

 

 

That scrudes me ova though...... :P :huh:



#78
jaster220

Posted 15 November 2017 - 08:51 AM

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That scrudes me ova though...... :P :huh:

 

Ik, good thing we're only talking hypothetical scenarios, eh?  :lol:



#79
jaster220

Posted 15 November 2017 - 10:03 AM

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Yeah, that GGEM run took the storm on the perfect track for heavy synoptic snows, Ofc the GFS further north but stronger 

 

Ofc, latest GGEM keeps the track but goes to the GFS's strength. Oh! for the love of some cold air. 

 

As is, this would make for one raw Saturday night around here..

 

Attached File  20171115 gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh72-90.gif   781.29KB   0 downloads



#80
Niko

Posted 15 November 2017 - 12:32 PM

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Ik, good thing we're only talking hypothetical scenarios, eh?  :lol:

:lol: :blink:



#81
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2017 - 02:48 PM

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Models trying to flash a little snow Saturday morning in my neck of the woods.  DVN mentioned it in their AFD as well.  A trend to keep an eye on.  Most likely will not be able to accumulate, but it'd be fun to watch it fly.  

 

 

 

refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png


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#82
jaster220

Posted 15 November 2017 - 04:01 PM

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[quote name="bud2380" post="272042" timestamp="1510786139"]Models trying to flash a little snow Saturday morning in my neck of the woods.  DVN mentioned it in their AFD as well.  A trend to keep an eye on.  Most likely will not be able to accumulate, but it'd be fun to watch it fly.  
 
It sure is trying, isn't it? After Sunday, when models leaned too cold in that marginal system, I'll believe only when I see flakes, lol. The original scenario with the low stalling allowed the cold to get pulled in, now it stays progressive and I have doubts the cold will catch-up in time. I also fight lake warmth shadowing mby this early, from that standpoint you could have a better shot.

#83
Tom

Posted 15 November 2017 - 06:41 PM

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00z NAM looks a little colder and more snow this run...not a lot but trending this way.

#84
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2017 - 07:37 PM

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NAM getting even more aggressive with back side snow chances Saturday.

 

 

refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png



#85
bud2380

Posted 15 November 2017 - 07:50 PM

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GFS starting to think about some snow too.

 

prateptype_cat.us_mw.png



#86
Niko

Posted 15 November 2017 - 08:18 PM

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Perhaps some snowshowers Saturday nite as the low departs away and colder air filters in. Nothing extreme though.



#87
Doppler_Dustin

Posted 15 November 2017 - 08:28 PM

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0z GFS is trending this storm slower and stronger than previous runs.  Maybe the NAM is onto something.  

 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_10.png



#88
james1976

Posted 15 November 2017 - 09:29 PM

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0z GFS is trending this storm slower and stronger than previous runs. Maybe the NAM is onto something.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_10.png

Yeah its looking that way. Nice last min trends. Kinda been the theme so far this season. Even the local mets are talkin backside snow now!
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#89
Money

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:22 AM

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12z NAM coming in stronger again and props to Tom on his CO low call.
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#90
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:23 AM

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As of the 0z suite, the globals are in fairly good agreement of placing a lower 980's SLP around S ONT/Georgian Bay region. They all pull some cold air in behind as the system is deepening nicely as it crosses SMI/NIN border region. The GEM reflecting zero frozen, while the GFS is tantalizingly close for Marshall and SWMI. I don't have the EC for precip. In my personal experience, this is a classic classic NMI RN-->SN system. I think it will be another "close but no cigar" scenario for mby in SWMI. Being the weekend, I may chase this a few counties north to satisfy my itch to see real #snow flying  :lol:

 

GEM maintains the flattest trajectory, and warmest outcome:

 

Attached File  20171116 0z 72hr GEM 500 mb & MSLP for Nov18.jpg   344.46KB   0 downloads

 

Euro is a bit deeper/better chance for flakes flying:

 

Attached File  20171116 0z 72hr Euro 500 mb & MSLP for Nov18.jpg   365.22KB   0 downloads

 

GFS is just one massive tease for mby  :lol:

 

Attached File  20171116 0z 72hr GFS mb & precip for Nov18.jpg   415.05KB   0 downloads


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#91
Niko

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:28 AM

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As of the 0z suite, the globals are in fairly good agreement of placing a lower 980's SLP around S ONT/Georgian Bay region. They all pull some cold air in behind as the system is deepening nicely as it crosses SMI/NIN border region. The GEM reflecting zero frozen, while the GFS is tantalizingly close for Marshall and SWMI. I don't have the EC for precip. In my personal experience, this is a classic classic NMI RN-->SN system. I think it will be another "close but no cigar" scenario for mby in SWMI. Being the weekend, I may chase this a few counties north to satisfy my itch to see real #snow flying  :lol:

 

GEM maintains the flattest trajectory, and warmest outcome:

 

attachicon.gif20171116 0z 72hr GEM 500 mb & MSLP for Nov18.jpg

 

Euro is a bit deeper/better chance for flakes flying:

 

attachicon.gif20171116 0z 72hr Euro 500 mb & MSLP for Nov18.jpg

 

GFS is just one massive tease for mby  :lol:

 

attachicon.gif20171116 0z 72hr GFS mb & precip for Nov18.jpg

Vote for GFS. ;)

 

Some snowshowers are possible as the low departs away, but big question remains, if any accumulations will occur.  All depends how quickly cold air is pulled in into the system and how much moisture is available. It might be an all rain event and then, turning colder w a few passing flurries or something more impressive. Who knows. We will see! :unsure:

 

Btw: can you imagine waking up Sunday morning to a big, outta nowhere wtf snowstorm w several inches of snow otg. Tbh, I really like surprise snowstorms. :D


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#92
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:32 AM

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12z NAM coming in stronger again and props to Tom on his CO low call.

Thanks Money, seems like this is a theme for the season with plenty of CO low's.  When I saw the Euro about 3-4 days ago show that Jet energy or "speed max" coming out of CO, I said, we gotta watch this.  This thing could be a very health "share the wealth" in future cycles.


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#93
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:34 AM

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NAM gives us .32" of precip, with a period of wet snowflakes. Actually not bad for just getting the back edge.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#94
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:37 AM

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12z NAM slower, stronger and looks like it tries going neg tilt a bit earlier also...


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#95
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:39 AM

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High rez NAM showing a nice look out in NE/IA...

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_47.png


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#96
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:42 AM

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992mb just north of STL...wow, these trends are no joke...could be another last minute "surprise"...


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#97
Tom

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:45 AM

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d**n, high rez NAM going with a comma shape feature and really deepening this storm...987mb over the IL/IN border....

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_53.png


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#98
LNK_Weather

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:47 AM

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High rez NAM showing a nice look out in NE/IA...

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_47.png

Yeah. It'll be too warm for accumulation but I'm just happy with the precip.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018: Tr.


#99
jaster220

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:48 AM

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d**n, high rez NAM going with a comma shape feature and really deepening this storm...987mb over the IL/IN border....

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_53.png

 

Was just going to post that Euro was a "no-go for snow" for SWMI, when you pulled this on me  :lol:


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#100
Money

Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:49 AM

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d**n, high rez NAM going with a comma shape feature and really deepening this storm...987mb over the IL/IN border....

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_53.png


Band of 3-6 inches of snow with it. Trends are def slower/stronger the last day or so