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December 6-16 LES and Clipper Train now boarding at the GL's platform!

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#51
jaster220

Posted 07 December 2017 - 04:46 AM

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GRR's latest AFD - They've upgraded/added some counties to their WWA, tho thinking a bust for Marshall's 3+ total is likely (GRR over-blows LES but ignores synoptic storms til the 11th hr). I will say tho, that the bolded indicates some "belt counties" could get a WSWatch for the Clipper

 

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

The leading edge of a reinforcing shot of arctic air was pushing
through the forecast area at this time. As this front sinks
southeast over the next couple of hours...the steadier snow
showers ahead of it will track through Kalamazoo and Battle Creek.
A northwesterly flow was setting up behind this front where lake
effect snow showers were strengthening. The northwest flow then
persists through the day supporting the steadiest snow showers
where we have the headlines out. We will need to monitor the
Interstate 94 corridor for possible expansion further inland of
the headlines due to the potential for stronger snow showers
today.

A more significant wave of low pressure tracks southeastward
through the CWA Friday night and Saturday. Widespread impacts are
becoming more likely with this event. The combination of deep
moisture...favorable lift and lake enhancement supports an
increased potential for more than 4 inches of snow for western
parts of the forecast area.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

The long term begins with a deep upper trough moving across eastern
Michigan and a sfc low over Ontario. Snow from this system will be
winding down and most locations will probably be dry Saturday night
through Sunday evening.

A clipper is progd to move southeast from Manitoba to southern
Ontario Sunday evening and dragging a cold front through the cwa
Monday. Light snow is likely with this system. Lake effect snow that
develops behind it as h8 temps fall to -17c will be limited to the
lake shore and perhaps the far eastern cwa if boundary layer winds
can get enough of a easterly component off of Lake Huron to bring a
few bands through Mid Michigan.

Another clipper is shown by both the ecmwf and gfs to move from
northern Minnesota southeast across Chicago Tuesday night. This
should bring light synoptic snow to the cwa during this time leading
to some minor accumulations.

Highs through the period will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&



#52
Andrew NE

Posted 07 December 2017 - 04:50 AM

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LOT's take....

 

Tab2FileL.png

 

Good luck with this one Tom. Curious question but wont this be the first 1"> snowfall since December of last year(2016).  If I remember correct you only recorded 0.4" of snow in the month of Jan and Feb. If so you are long overdue.


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#53
jaster220

Posted 07 December 2017 - 05:05 AM

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Looks good. I always thought that the GFS handled Clippers better

 

Better than the Euro? Perhaps, but the GEM was king with Clippers during 2013-14. Speaking of, my total snowfall that autumn through today was only 2.2", so depending on the outcome of the current WWA, I could be tied (or even ahead of) with 2013. Ofc, last December got off to an even faster start, and crashed-n-burned so it's not really saying much. Just been a lot of parallels drawn to that analog season of lore. 


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#54
jaster220

Posted 07 December 2017 - 05:10 AM

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:)  Looks nice even if it's a bust for mby on the east end of the WWA

 

Attached File  20171207 GRR current headlines 8am.PNG   33.38KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  20171207 GRR am snowfall graphic.png   216.52KB   0 downloads

 

 


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#55
jaster220

Posted 07 December 2017 - 05:18 AM

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MI is going to be building a glacier next week...LES belts gonna crank!

 

@ GFS - DANG!!  paints 1 - 2 feet from mby west to the lake shore!  Where'd this come from? Don't remember any longer range snow maps showing that much tbh, but I'm okay with mid to short range trending up  ;)


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#56
Tom

Posted 07 December 2017 - 05:59 AM

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Good luck with this one Tom. Curious question but wont this be the first 1"> snowfall since December of last year(2016).  If I remember correct you only recorded 0.4" of snow in the month of Jan and Feb. If so you are long overdue.

Oh my gosh, I went up stairs to do something and I literally was thinking about this same thought~!  Yup, this would officially be the first 1" of snow bud.  Can you imagine?  That's gotta be somewhat of an interesting stat.


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#57
Niko

Posted 07 December 2017 - 06:12 AM

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This clipper has a 2-4" range for MBY. Although, needs to be watched for higher amounts possible.

 

Per Noaa:

 

Still some
uncertainty with the strength of the low, with the ECMWF now being
the bullish solution with the low getting down to around 1003 hPa,
still modest for a clipper system. Trends will need to be watched
closely over the next 36 hours for potential higher amounts which
may result in the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory



#58
jaster220

Posted 07 December 2017 - 06:54 AM

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This clipper has a 2-4" range for MBY. Although, needs to be watched for higher amounts possible.

 

Per Noaa:

 

Still some
uncertainty with the strength of the low, with the ECMWF now being
the bullish solution with the low getting down to around 1003 hPa,
still modest for a clipper system. Trends will need to be watched
closely over the next 36 hours for potential higher amounts which
may result in the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory

 

as said, good trends but get it within 12 hrs, its a Clipper. Hope we're all plowing this weekend!


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#59
Tom

Posted 07 December 2017 - 06:55 AM

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Both NAM's are indicating somewhat of a convective nature to the snows out in MN/WI/IL.  Might have some good rates at times which would be nice to see (if your up all night).


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#60
VMB443

Posted 07 December 2017 - 07:05 AM

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They're giving us a couple of inches tomorrow evening into Saturday morning - some flurries floating around right now just to help get us in the mood.


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#61
Niko

Posted 07 December 2017 - 07:09 AM

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as said, good trends but get it within 12 hrs, its a Clipper. Hope we're all plowing this weekend!

Hopefully, indeed!



#62
bud2380

Posted 07 December 2017 - 07:13 AM

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Looks good for the people in states that border a Great Lake.  I'm still hoping to scrape out an inch at my parents house.  I could see that area getting nothing or getting close to an inch.  It will be close.  



#63
Tom

Posted 07 December 2017 - 07:38 AM

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They're giving us a couple of inches tomorrow evening into Saturday morning - some flurries floating around right now just to help get us in the mood.

Same here...certainly a "mood" setter for tomorrow...models are speeding up the arrival around here just after rush hour.  Hope we get enough to cover the grass.  Ground is completely frozen and you can see some snow in spots on the grass that fell over night holding on.



#64
Iowawx

Posted 07 December 2017 - 07:50 AM

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Once again, Chicago set to get a decent clipper, and my area will get nothing. I am now convinced having a white Christmas is unlikely here.

#65
Tom

Posted 07 December 2017 - 08:13 AM

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12z GFS trending stronger with the Mon/Tue clipper across WI/N IL/MI. 00z Euro Control looked similar and farther south. Should be another “refresher” for some who score snow from the Fri/Sat system.

#66
Money

Posted 07 December 2017 - 08:48 AM

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12z gfs flips the pattern after hr 240 and shows a big time cutter developing
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#67
Hoosier

Posted 07 December 2017 - 09:08 AM

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Oh my gosh, I went up stairs to do something and I literally was thinking about this same thought~! Yup, this would officially be the first 1" of snow bud. Can you imagine? That's gotta be somewhat of an interesting stat.


Tom, you are forgetting the March snow. 7.7" at ORD from March 12-14.
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#68
Tom

Posted 07 December 2017 - 09:25 AM

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Tom, you are forgetting the March snow. 7.7" at ORD from March 12-14.

Oh ya, d**n!  How can I forget about that LES event.  Nice catch!


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#69
jaster220

Posted 07 December 2017 - 09:43 AM

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12z gfs flips the pattern after hr 240 and shows a big time cutter developing

 

It's got eyes on yby too  ;)



#70
earthandturf

Posted 07 December 2017 - 10:01 AM

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Looking forward to possibly having the season's 1st plowable event Fri/sat. I just hope I can get out early enough on Sat. morning so that I can get a few hours of sleep before hosting a x-mas party for 35-40 people Sat. night! I just knew this was going to happen. :blink:


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#71
gosaints

Posted 07 December 2017 - 10:22 AM

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Interested to see how this product performs this winter......

 

 

gfs_asnowd_ncus_12.png



#72
jaster220

Posted 07 December 2017 - 10:42 AM

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If this brings me a solid 2" Saturday, it'd be only one day later than my first solid snow on 12-8-13

 

Nice to see the 1st solid SN forecast vs just SHSN

 

Attached File  20171207 KRMY 1st solid snow Dec 9th!.PNG   25.35KB   0 downloads



#73
Madtown

Posted 07 December 2017 - 11:02 AM

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Maps for these bad boys?

#74
Niko

Posted 07 December 2017 - 11:15 AM

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I am hoping this clipper slows down a bit.



#75
jaster220

Posted 07 December 2017 - 11:23 AM

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Maps for these bad boys?

 

GFS:

 

Attached File  20171207 12z 48hr GFS SLP.png   176.45KB   0 downloads

 

GEM:

 

Attached File  20171207 0z 60hr GEM SLP.png   181.22KB   0 downloads

 

IWX

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
204 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

INZ003-004-MIZ077-080315-
/O.NEW.KIWX.WS.A.0001.171209T0500Z-171210T0500Z/
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Berrien-
Including the cities of Michigan City, La Porte, South Bend,
Mishawaka, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Niles, Benton Harbor,
St. Joseph, Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Buchanan,
and Paw Paw Lake
204 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 /104 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...


* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Plan on difficult
travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches are
possible. Localized heavier amounts are also possible.

* WHERE...In Indiana, La Porte and St. Joseph IN Counties. In
Michigan, Berrien County.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusts of 20 to 35 mph may cause areas
of blowing and drifting snow late Saturday morning through
Saturday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

 



#76
Niko

Posted 07 December 2017 - 11:25 AM

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So far, still standing at a 2-4" snowfall for late Fri into Sat.



#77
Tom

Posted 07 December 2017 - 11:35 AM

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NCEP models thinking...

 

ndfd_snow_conus_54.png

 

 

ndfd_snow_illinois_54.png

 

 

ndfd_snow_michigan_54.png



#78
jaster220

Posted 07 December 2017 - 11:38 AM

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Why is there a daily limit on likes?? What'll I do when we get that Big Dog storm we've been promised? >> :lol:


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#79
jaster220

Posted 07 December 2017 - 01:32 PM

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Latest AFD from GRR for the Clipper.. :)

 

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

Lingering snow showers attm will taper off late this afternoon and
evening. Although wnw flow lake effect snow showers continue in
progress attm we believe most of the accumulating snow has already
fallen and will let the advisory headline expire as scheduled at
21Z. Dry wx is then anticipated overnight into Friday morning before
the next low pressure system approaches from the nw.

This system will be stronger and bring widespread snow Friday
night and Saturday resulting in hazardous travel conditions.
The
snow will be enhanced by moisture from Lake Michigan and the dgz
will be saturated. Very strong mid to upper level pva will also
develop late Friday night and dynamics look favorable. Deformation
zone snow will linger into Saturday afternoon.

This system will bring three to six inches of snow across our
fcst area from Friday night through Saturday afternoon with
highest amounts expected west of US-131 and lowest amounts over
our eastern fcst area. A solid three to four inches of snow is
forecast for the US-131 corridor.


Light lake effect snow showers will linger Saturday night mainly
west of US-131 in a northwest flow regime but little additional
accumulations (under an inch).

 

Attached File  20171207 GRR pm snowfall graphic.png   354.35KB   0 downloads



#80
jaster220

Posted 07 December 2017 - 01:38 PM

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Additional break-down for SWMI

 

 

 

Next Snow Event (Friday into Saturday) * Light snow during the day Friday mainly north of Holland - Grand Rapids - Alma. * Moderate to locally heavy snow Friday night and part of Saturday in most of Lower Michigan.    - Period of heavy snow in Muskegon / Ottawa / Allegan / Van Buren counties, pre-dawn Saturday.    - Moderate snow diminishes from northwest to southeast across Lower Michigan during the day Saturday. *  Occasional bursts of heavy snow continuing Saturday afternoon & evening near Lake Michigan (especially Manistee-to-Whitehall and Holland-to-Indiana) affecting travel conditions.


#81
jaster220

Posted 07 December 2017 - 01:46 PM

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Biggest report and first above 4" so far from NWS site

 

NWUS53 KGRR 071922
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
222 PM EST THU DEC 7 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM SNOW ALLENDALE 42.99N 85.95W
12/07/2017 E6.0 INCH OTTAWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SO FAR TODAY.

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 PM EST THU DEC 07 2017

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM SNOW HUDSONVILLE 42.87N 85.87W
12/07/2017 M6.0 INCH OTTAWA MI PUBLIC

 
 


#82
Niko

Posted 07 December 2017 - 06:43 PM

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Per Noaa:

 

Current QPF forecastwith the amount of forcing with the system would yield widespread
snowfall amounts of generally 2-3 inches with locally higher amounts
possible. These numbers would increase if QPF trends upward, so will
need to keep an eye on the QPF trends as the event nears.


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#83
Niko

Posted 08 December 2017 - 04:19 AM

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This weekend clipper showing the potential of a couple of inches here IMBY.



#84
Tom

Posted 08 December 2017 - 05:50 AM

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Might get an inch out of this system.  Not looking like it will be enough to cover the grass tips.  Prob will melt by Monday anyway so it'll be just enough to be a "mood" setter.  If anything, the Mon/Tue system could be enough to cover the grass around here.  Both 00z EPS/Control take a track a bit more south than the other modeling.

 

Here is the 00z Euro Control thru Tues....

Attached Files

  • Attached File  1.png   708.21KB   0 downloads


#85
gosaints

Posted 08 December 2017 - 07:17 AM

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The EURO depicts 10 days of nothing but flurries verbatim.  Its hard to spin it any other way.  I dont like the signs of the pattern break down being pushed back


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#86
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 08 December 2017 - 07:27 AM

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The EURO depicts 10 days of nothing but flurries verbatim.  Its hard to spin it any other way.  I dont like the signs of the pattern break down being pushed back


But hey Michigan does well. We need to reshuffle the cards here, or nothing will happen. In fact, I don't think CID has recorded measurable snow so far this season. At least most other places have that going for them.

2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.1"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1)


#87
Money

Posted 08 December 2017 - 07:35 AM

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But hey Michigan does well. We need to reshuffle the cards here, or nothing will happen. In fact, I don't think CID has recorded measurable snow so far this season. At least most other places have that going for them.


We haven’t here in WI either

#88
jaster220

Posted 08 December 2017 - 08:42 AM

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From APX - I remember my days living in the NMI snow belts when we'd get this kinda pattern it was always fresh looking snow OTG, a true winter wonderland up there

 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

High impact weather potential...Ongoing lake effect snow will be
enhanced by periodic snow from passing clipper systems. This could
yield some significant snow totals for some areas.

An unrelenting, active winter pattern for the Great Lakes region
through the period as a persistent longwave trough sits over the
region. A progression of several systems and repeated blasts of
Arctic air look to rotate around the trough at various time. A
clipper system will dive through the Great Lakes late Sunday night
into Monday, with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -20C or
perhaps colder heading into Tuesday. Snowblow, shovel, and repeat as
yet another clipper system rounds the trough Wednesday night into
Thursday, following a nearly identical track. In between these
systems, of course, will be ongoing lake effect...reinforced by the
periodic shots of cold, Arctic air. Northerly and northwesterly flow
snow belts appear to be most favored through the period. Taking a
cursory look at BUFKIT data and GEFS plumes, snowfall from the lake
effect combined with the passing clipper systems could be enough to
warrant headlines for some areas, but time will tell of course as
details become clearer in the coming days.


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#89
Tom

Posted 08 December 2017 - 08:45 AM

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From APX - I remember my days living in the NMI snow belts when we'd get this kinda pattern it was always fresh looking snow OTG, a true winter wonderland up there

 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

High impact weather potential...Ongoing lake effect snow will be
enhanced by periodic snow from passing clipper systems. This could
yield some significant snow totals for some areas.

An unrelenting, active winter pattern for the Great Lakes region
through the period as a persistent longwave trough sits over the
region. A progression of several systems and repeated blasts of
Arctic air look to rotate around the trough at various time. A
clipper system will dive through the Great Lakes late Sunday night
into Monday, with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -20C or
perhaps colder heading into Tuesday. Snowblow, shovel, and repeat as
yet another clipper system rounds the trough Wednesday night into
Thursday, following a nearly identical track. In between these
systems, of course, will be ongoing lake effect...reinforced by the
periodic shots of cold, Arctic air. Northerly and northwesterly flow
snow belts appear to be most favored through the period. Taking a
cursory look at BUFKIT data and GEFS plumes, snowfall from the lake
effect combined with the passing clipper systems could be enough to
warrant headlines for some areas, but time will tell of course as
details become clearer in the coming days.

Snowpocalypse!  Prepare yourselves... :D


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#90
jaster220

Posted 08 December 2017 - 08:51 AM

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Closer to home, even tho headlines are a mix of WWA's and WSWarnings, some areas per the headline txt's will likely reach double digits, maybe double the best of yesterday's event, thus a solid 12" not out of the question. The synoptic qpf with this Clipper has not ramped-up for areas inland as hoped for, yet with Lake Mich still quite warm, I could see this thing "scooping" a bit more moisture across SWMI and possibly generating better totals than is currently being forecast. Usually when GRR aims low, the results go the other way, and vice-versa, yesterday being a classic example. The very immediate lake shore looks to get the best of all sides of this compact storm. Should really look like full-on winter around St. Joe by Monday  :)

 

GRR

 

Attached File  20171208 GRR am snowfall graphic.png   455.51KB   0 downloads

 

IWX

 

Attached File  20171208 IWX am snowfall graphic.png   692.11KB   1 downloads

 

 

 

 


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#91
Niko

Posted 08 December 2017 - 08:55 AM

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Closer to home, even tho headlines are a mix of WWA's and WSWarnings, some areas per the headline txt's will likely reach double digits, maybe double the best of yesterday's event, thus a solid 12" not out of the question. The synoptic qpf with this Clipper has not ramped-up for areas inland as hoped for, yet with Lake Mich still quite warm, I could see this thing "scooping" a bit more moisture across SWMI and possibly generating better totals than is currently being forecast. Usually when GRR aims low, the results go the other way, and vice-versa, yesterday being a classic example. The very immediate lake shore looks to get the best of all sides of this compact storm. Should really look like full-on winter around St. Joe by Monday  :)

 

GRR

 

attachicon.gif20171208 GRR am snowfall graphic.png

 

IWX

 

attachicon.gif20171208 IWX am snowfall graphic.png

Nice! :)

 

2-4" looking likely for MBY.


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#92
jaster220

Posted 08 December 2017 - 08:58 AM

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..and BAM! it's winter

 

Attached File  20171208 KBEH 1st headline.PNG   105.92KB   0 downloads


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Niko

Posted 08 December 2017 - 09:01 AM

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..and BAM! it's winter

 

attachicon.gif20171208 KBEH 1st headline.PNG

You should do well these upcoming days.


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#94
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Posted 08 December 2017 - 09:16 AM

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Nice! :)

 

2-4" looking likely for MBY.

 

Should be great for the Christmas season, eh??

 

My local calling for 4"

 

Tonight

Snow showers, mainly after 1am. Low around 24. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.
 
Saturday
Snow showers likely, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. South southwest wind 6 to 14 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 09:23 AM

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Should be great for the Christmas season, eh??

 

My local calling for 4"

Absolutely. Hopefully, the next clipper early next week will be stronger.



#96
Tom

Posted 08 December 2017 - 09:38 AM

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Absolutely. Hopefully, the next clipper early next week will be stronger.


Based off of the 12z GEFS, it is looking better and def better potential than the 1st one. If it can shift south some more many more on here would bode well.

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 10:01 AM

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Based off of the 12z GEFS, it is looking better and def better potential than the 1st one. If it can shift south some more many more on here would bode well.

Hopefully, it does. Lets see what happens.



#98
jaster220

Posted 08 December 2017 - 10:29 AM

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Based off of the 12z GEFS, it is looking better and def better potential than the 1st one. If it can shift south some more many more on here would bode well.

 

Late season Clippers trend south, not normally so for early December. Look at tonight's for example. IND peeps were all excited that they were targeted by the models several days ago. But, as per usual, it'll be about 1 state north of where models kept showing it. In this case, I'm a benefactor, but mostly in the past I've been the cheated.  ;)



#99
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Posted 08 December 2017 - 10:34 AM

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Well, after reviewing all the short-range models at lunch, they appear in pretty good agreement on ~ a 12 hr window for snow in Marshall. First flakes look to be around 3 am, with light to steady snow til peaking from 4 to 10 am, then a more scattered look depending on the model. Some, even seem to have a convective look with squalls around near the CF as seen on the 2nd Intell map:

 

Attached File  20171208 Intellicast 24hr GLs map-1am Sat 9th.jpg   103.43KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  20171208 Intellicast 48hr GLs map-7am Sat 9th.jpg   104.76KB   0 downloads

 

 

EDIT: That main N-S streamer shown coming in behind the CF should be the real deal. Won't last too long but will likely produce 1+" per hour rates. Ofc, this is hitting on a weekend so I won't be here in St. Joe to experience it first hand


Edited by jaster220, 08 December 2017 - 10:47 AM.

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Posted 08 December 2017 - 10:40 AM

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Well, after reviewing all the short-range models at lunch, they appear in pretty good agreement on ~ a 12 hr window for snow in Marshall. First flakes look to be around 3 am, with light to steady snow til peaking from 4 to 10 am, then a more scattered look depending on the model. Some, even seem to have a convective look with squalls around near the CF as seen on the 2nd Intell map:

 

attachicon.gif20171208 Intellicast 24hr GLs map-1am Sat 9th.jpg

 

attachicon.gif20171208 Intellicast 48hr GLs map-7am Sat 9th.jpg

Look at that blue color covering SEMI and SWMI. Gotta like that! :D :ph34r: