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Summer forecast contest, year three.

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#101
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 06 June 2018 - 09:46 AM

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They’re calculated on the local NWS climate page for each location/station.


That's where I went for each station. I took the average departure each day then divided by the number of days so far. Unless you guys calculate it another way.

#102
Phil

Posted 06 June 2018 - 09:51 AM

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That's where I went for each station. I took the average departure each day then divided by the number of days so far. Unless you guys calculate it another way.


They calculate it for you, dude. It’s right there.
  • Jesse likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#103
Phil

Posted 06 June 2018 - 09:53 AM

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For example:

Y8YYjj6.jpg
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#104
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 06 June 2018 - 09:58 AM

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They calculate it for you, dude. It’s right there.


I see. That's a relief then. I was doing it the old school way and took lots of time. It would be good though to record each individual departure day for each station and then put it on the graph. Then you can see the pattern for the whole summer. That's what I'm doing with all the stations right now.

#105
Front Ranger

Posted 06 June 2018 - 11:30 AM

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SEA +0.9
OLM -1.1
PDX +1.5
CQT: +1.3
DEN: +6.7
DCA +1.8

A shame SEA/PDX appear to be ruined by UHI.


Welcome to the forum.
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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#106
Jesse

Posted 17 June 2018 - 09:49 AM

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75 days to go. Summer’s going fast!

#107
Front Ranger

Posted 19 June 2018 - 12:22 PM

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PDX and SEA both now over +1.

 

DEN still at a ridiculous +7.7...but dropping fast.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#108
Phil

Posted 19 June 2018 - 12:55 PM

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OLM is still -0.5. Lol. Amazing what UHI can do in a climate with a relatively shallow boundary layer.

I bet OLM finishes June with a negative anomaly too.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#109
Front Ranger

Posted 19 June 2018 - 01:00 PM

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OLM is still -0.5. Lol. Amazing what UHI can do in a climate with a relatively shallow boundary layer.

I bet OLM finishes June with a negative anomaly too.


I think we both went too cool everywhere.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#110
Phil

Posted 19 June 2018 - 01:06 PM

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I think we both went too cool everywhere.


Yeah, could be. Surface temps don’t seem to behave the same way over there, compared to how they do here.

Or at least the UHI seems to be much stronger there.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#111
TT-SEA

Posted 19 June 2018 - 06:22 PM

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+10 at SEA today.

 

+9 at OLM

 

+10 at BLI



#112
Front Ranger

Posted 19 June 2018 - 07:32 PM

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+10 at SEA today.

 

+9 at OLM

 

+10 at BLI

 

UHI fail!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#113
Phil

Posted Yesterday, 09:46 AM

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DEN is way up there...+7.2. Ouch. I’m surprised Flatiron isn’t ranting all over the forum. I’d be going nuclear if we ran a +7.2 departure during summer.

SEA is +1.9, PDX is +1.6. UHI probably adding 1.5*F to both locations.

OLM is at 0.0, which is probably the non-UHI reality.

DCA is +1.3

We’ve had some warm overnight lows, but highs have been kept in check by the foot of rain we’ve had since Memorial Day Weekend. We’ve had something like 20” of rain since May 1st, with more coming. Might finish with 30-35” in the MJJ period.

Some areas in N-central MD just east of the fall line have indeed had close to 30” since May 1st already. #Swamp
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#114
TT-SEA

Posted Yesterday, 09:55 AM

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DEN is way up there...+7.2. Ouch. I’m surprised Flatiron isn’t ranting all over the forum. I’d be going nuclear if we ran a +7.2 departure during summer.

SEA is +1.9, PDX is +1.6. UHI probably adding 1.5*F to both locations.

OLM is at 0.0, which is probably the non-UHI reality.

DCA is +1.3

We’ve had some warm overnight lows, but highs have been kept in check by the foot of rain we’ve had since Memorial Day Weekend. We’ve had something like 20” of rain since May 1st, with more coming. Might finish with 30-35” in the MJJ period.

Some areas in N-central MD just east of the fall line have indeed had close to 30” since May 1st already. #Swamp

 

 

You talk about the UHI like its temporary or results in false readings.   Its very real and its probably going to become even more pronounced... its the new normal.

 

Also looks like the Puget Sound warm bubble is back (not just at SEA)... similar to the general troughy period in July of 2016.  Its been a troughy month overall until the last couple days as you mentioned.

 

anomimage.gif



#115
Phil

Posted Yesterday, 10:06 AM

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You talk about the UHI like its temporary or results in false readings. Its very real and its probably going to become even more pronounced... its the new normal.

Also looks like the Puget Sound warm bubble is back (not just at SEA)... similar to the general troughy period in July of 2016. Its been a troughy month overall until the last couple days as you mentioned.

anomimage.gif


But UHI is artificial, and relatively localized. Once you head out to rural and/or underdeveloped areas, there’s often a 2-3 degree difference. Even within the same city jurisdictions there can be large differences. And it’s all artificial.

I often drive through insane UHI pockets here during the morning, where temperatures can spike by 10*F+ over a space of less than a mile.

I’m so freaking glad I live in a wooded, under-developed area. One of the few locations here that can still cool down at night. There’s still UHI, but it’s tolerable. Drive a few miles away from here in the morning and you spike by at least 5 degrees unless it’s windy. During the autumn it can be as high as 15*F.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#116
Phil

Posted Yesterday, 01:21 PM

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BTW Tim, we’ve had about 20” of rain since May 1st. Another 1-2” is coming tonight, plus another 5-8”+ over the next 5 days, as well. This after 1.65” fell in just 30mins yesterday. We could finish the warm season with 30-40” of rain. Lol.

So, long story short, I don’t ever want to hear you complain about rain ever again. Imagine if you got 35”+ of rain from May-September. My guess is you’d be pissed off. :lol:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#117
Front Ranger

Posted Yesterday, 01:47 PM

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DEN is way up there...+7.2. Ouch. I’m surprised Flatiron isn’t ranting all over the forum. I’d be going nuclear if we ran a +7.2 departure during summer.

 

I've expressed my displeasure with it, but I'm not generally a ranter. It sucks, but I'd rather have extreme warm anomalies in early June than late July. 

 

I've only had a couple 95+ days...seen much worse.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#118
Phil

Posted Yesterday, 03:58 PM

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BTW Tim, we’ve had about 20” of rain since May 1st. Another 1-2” is coming tonight, plus another 5-8”+ over the next 5 days, as well. This after 1.65” fell in just 30mins yesterday. We could finish the warm season with 30-40” of rain. Lol.

So, long story short, I don’t ever want to hear you complain about rain ever again. Imagine if you got 35”+ of rain from May-September. My guess is you’d be pissed off. :lol:


Edit: Just had another 1.7” of rain in the last 15 minutes.

Tim would be throwing a tantrum if he was here. Lmao.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#119
TT-SEA

Posted Yesterday, 05:27 PM

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Edit: Just had another 1.7” of rain in the last 15 minutes.

Tim would be throwing a tantrum if he was here. Lmao.

 

Straw man!   You are losing it dude.

 

And for record... I love rain like that.   Absolutely love it.  



#120
TT-SEA

Posted Yesterday, 05:31 PM

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BTW Tim, we’ve had about 20” of rain since May 1st. Another 1-2” is coming tonight, plus another 5-8”+ over the next 5 days, as well. This after 1.65” fell in just 30mins yesterday. We could finish the warm season with 30-40” of rain. Lol.

So, long story short, I don’t ever want to hear you complain about rain ever again. Imagine if you got 35”+ of rain from May-September. My guess is you’d be pissed off. :lol:

 

I never complained about summer rain in MN... it comes fast and then its right back to warm and sunny.    Its not an issue at all.    We can spend a week here with clouds and chilly weather just to get a quarter of an inch of rain.    That is a waste of summer in my opinion.

 

You are just endless straw man arguments now... you completely miss the mark about my preferences and then attack.    Its so silly and sounds desperate.   :lol:


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#121
Phil

Posted Today, 06:41 AM

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My June forecast for Denver is in big trouble at this rate..monster positive anomaly still.

And I’m gonna bust huge in July at DCA. Will probably be something like +4.5. Lol.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#122
Kayla

Posted Today, 07:31 AM

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My June forecast for Denver is in big trouble at this rate..monster positive anomaly still.

And I’m gonna bust huge in July at DCA. Will probably be something like +4.5. Lol.

 

The massive N-S temp gradient continues in the Intermountain West. Bozeman Airport is running a -1.6F departure on the month so far with mainly below average temps forecasted for the rest of this month. 

 

Should have added BZN into the forecast contest just to offset all the positive anomalies a little!


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Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 222.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#123
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 07:32 AM

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SEA is at +2.4 now for June.

 

Probably end up between 1.5 - 2.0



#124
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 08:28 AM

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Positive anomalies run amuck.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#125
ShawniganLake

Posted Today, 09:22 AM

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Shawnigan Lake is close to +1.5 for the month. No UHI here.