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Summer forecast contest, year three.

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#101
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 06 June 2018 - 09:46 AM

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They’re calculated on the local NWS climate page for each location/station.


That's where I went for each station. I took the average departure each day then divided by the number of days so far. Unless you guys calculate it another way.

#102
Phil

Posted 06 June 2018 - 09:51 AM

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That's where I went for each station. I took the average departure each day then divided by the number of days so far. Unless you guys calculate it another way.


They calculate it for you, dude. It’s right there.
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#103
Phil

Posted 06 June 2018 - 09:53 AM

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For example:

Y8YYjj6.jpg
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#104
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 06 June 2018 - 09:58 AM

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They calculate it for you, dude. It’s right there.


I see. That's a relief then. I was doing it the old school way and took lots of time. It would be good though to record each individual departure day for each station and then put it on the graph. Then you can see the pattern for the whole summer. That's what I'm doing with all the stations right now.

#105
Front Ranger

Posted 06 June 2018 - 11:30 AM

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SEA +0.9
OLM -1.1
PDX +1.5
CQT: +1.3
DEN: +6.7
DCA +1.8

A shame SEA/PDX appear to be ruined by UHI.


Welcome to the forum.
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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#106
Jesse

Posted 17 June 2018 - 09:49 AM

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75 days to go. Summer’s going fast!

#107
Front Ranger

Posted 19 June 2018 - 12:22 PM

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PDX and SEA both now over +1.

 

DEN still at a ridiculous +7.7...but dropping fast.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#108
Phil

Posted 19 June 2018 - 12:55 PM

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OLM is still -0.5. Lol. Amazing what UHI can do in a climate with a relatively shallow boundary layer.

I bet OLM finishes June with a negative anomaly too.
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#109
Front Ranger

Posted 19 June 2018 - 01:00 PM

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OLM is still -0.5. Lol. Amazing what UHI can do in a climate with a relatively shallow boundary layer.

I bet OLM finishes June with a negative anomaly too.


I think we both went too cool everywhere.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#110
Phil

Posted 19 June 2018 - 01:06 PM

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I think we both went too cool everywhere.


Yeah, could be. Surface temps don’t seem to behave the same way over there, compared to how they do here.

Or at least the UHI seems to be much stronger there.
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#111
TT-SEA

Posted 19 June 2018 - 06:22 PM

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+10 at SEA today.

 

+9 at OLM

 

+10 at BLI



#112
Front Ranger

Posted 19 June 2018 - 07:32 PM

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+10 at SEA today.

 

+9 at OLM

 

+10 at BLI

 

UHI fail!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#113
Phil

Posted 20 June 2018 - 09:46 AM

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DEN is way up there...+7.2. Ouch. I’m surprised Flatiron isn’t ranting all over the forum. I’d be going nuclear if we ran a +7.2 departure during summer.

SEA is +1.9, PDX is +1.6. UHI probably adding 1.5*F to both locations.

OLM is at 0.0, which is probably the non-UHI reality.

DCA is +1.3

We’ve had some warm overnight lows, but highs have been kept in check by the foot of rain we’ve had since Memorial Day Weekend. We’ve had something like 20” of rain since May 1st, with more coming. Might finish with 30-35” in the MJJ period.

Some areas in N-central MD just east of the fall line have indeed had close to 30” since May 1st already. #Swamp
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#114
TT-SEA

Posted 20 June 2018 - 09:55 AM

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DEN is way up there...+7.2. Ouch. I’m surprised Flatiron isn’t ranting all over the forum. I’d be going nuclear if we ran a +7.2 departure during summer.

SEA is +1.9, PDX is +1.6. UHI probably adding 1.5*F to both locations.

OLM is at 0.0, which is probably the non-UHI reality.

DCA is +1.3

We’ve had some warm overnight lows, but highs have been kept in check by the foot of rain we’ve had since Memorial Day Weekend. We’ve had something like 20” of rain since May 1st, with more coming. Might finish with 30-35” in the MJJ period.

Some areas in N-central MD just east of the fall line have indeed had close to 30” since May 1st already. #Swamp

 

 

You talk about the UHI like its temporary or results in false readings.   Its very real and its probably going to become even more pronounced... its the new normal.

 

Also looks like the Puget Sound warm bubble is back (not just at SEA)... similar to the general troughy period in July of 2016.  Its been a troughy month overall until the last couple days as you mentioned.

 

anomimage.gif



#115
Phil

Posted 20 June 2018 - 10:06 AM

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You talk about the UHI like its temporary or results in false readings. Its very real and its probably going to become even more pronounced... its the new normal.

Also looks like the Puget Sound warm bubble is back (not just at SEA)... similar to the general troughy period in July of 2016. Its been a troughy month overall until the last couple days as you mentioned.

anomimage.gif


But UHI is artificial, and relatively localized. Once you head out to rural and/or underdeveloped areas, there’s often a 2-3 degree difference. Even within the same city jurisdictions there can be large differences. And it’s all artificial.

I often drive through insane UHI pockets here during the morning, where temperatures can spike by 10*F+ over a space of less than a mile.

I’m so freaking glad I live in a wooded, under-developed area. One of the few locations here that can still cool down at night. There’s still UHI, but it’s tolerable. Drive a few miles away from here in the morning and you spike by at least 5 degrees unless it’s windy. During the autumn it can be as high as 15*F.
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#116
Phil

Posted 20 June 2018 - 01:21 PM

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BTW Tim, we’ve had about 20” of rain since May 1st. Another 1-2” is coming tonight, plus another 5-8”+ over the next 5 days, as well. This after 1.65” fell in just 30mins yesterday. We could finish the warm season with 30-40” of rain. Lol.

So, long story short, I don’t ever want to hear you complain about rain ever again. Imagine if you got 35”+ of rain from May-September. My guess is you’d be pissed off. :lol:
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#117
Front Ranger

Posted 20 June 2018 - 01:47 PM

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DEN is way up there...+7.2. Ouch. I’m surprised Flatiron isn’t ranting all over the forum. I’d be going nuclear if we ran a +7.2 departure during summer.

 

I've expressed my displeasure with it, but I'm not generally a ranter. It sucks, but I'd rather have extreme warm anomalies in early June than late July. 

 

I've only had a couple 95+ days...seen much worse.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#118
Phil

Posted 20 June 2018 - 03:58 PM

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BTW Tim, we’ve had about 20” of rain since May 1st. Another 1-2” is coming tonight, plus another 5-8”+ over the next 5 days, as well. This after 1.65” fell in just 30mins yesterday. We could finish the warm season with 30-40” of rain. Lol.

So, long story short, I don’t ever want to hear you complain about rain ever again. Imagine if you got 35”+ of rain from May-September. My guess is you’d be pissed off. :lol:


Edit: Just had another 1.7” of rain in the last 15 minutes.

Tim would be throwing a tantrum if he was here. Lmao.
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#119
TT-SEA

Posted 20 June 2018 - 05:27 PM

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Edit: Just had another 1.7” of rain in the last 15 minutes.

Tim would be throwing a tantrum if he was here. Lmao.

 

Straw man!   You are losing it dude.

 

And for record... I love rain like that.   Absolutely love it.  



#120
TT-SEA

Posted 20 June 2018 - 05:31 PM

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BTW Tim, we’ve had about 20” of rain since May 1st. Another 1-2” is coming tonight, plus another 5-8”+ over the next 5 days, as well. This after 1.65” fell in just 30mins yesterday. We could finish the warm season with 30-40” of rain. Lol.

So, long story short, I don’t ever want to hear you complain about rain ever again. Imagine if you got 35”+ of rain from May-September. My guess is you’d be pissed off. :lol:

 

I never complained about summer rain in MN... it comes fast and then its right back to warm and sunny.    Its not an issue at all.    We can spend a week here with clouds and chilly weather just to get a quarter of an inch of rain.    That is a waste of summer in my opinion.

 

You are just endless straw man arguments now... you completely miss the mark about my preferences and then attack.    Its so silly and sounds desperate.   :lol:


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#121
Phil

Posted 21 June 2018 - 06:41 AM

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My June forecast for Denver is in big trouble at this rate..monster positive anomaly still.

And I’m gonna bust huge in July at DCA. Will probably be something like +4.5. Lol.
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#122
Kayla

Posted 21 June 2018 - 07:31 AM

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My June forecast for Denver is in big trouble at this rate..monster positive anomaly still.

And I’m gonna bust huge in July at DCA. Will probably be something like +4.5. Lol.

 

The massive N-S temp gradient continues in the Intermountain West. Bozeman Airport is running a -1.6F departure on the month so far with mainly below average temps forecasted for the rest of this month. 

 

Should have added BZN into the forecast contest just to offset all the positive anomalies a little!


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Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 11.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 36.1º
Coldest low: 18.0º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#123
TT-SEA

Posted 21 June 2018 - 07:32 AM

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SEA is at +2.4 now for June.

 

Probably end up between 1.5 - 2.0



#124
Front Ranger

Posted 21 June 2018 - 08:28 AM

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Positive anomalies run amuck.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#125
ShawniganLake

Posted 21 June 2018 - 09:22 AM

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Shawnigan Lake is close to +1.5 for the month. No UHI here.

#126
Front Ranger

Posted 21 June 2018 - 10:50 AM

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Shawnigan Lake is close to +1.5 for the month. No UHI here.


It's a travesty there's no Canadian representation in the contest locations.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#127
ShawniganLake

Posted 21 June 2018 - 12:51 PM

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It's a travesty there's no Canadian representation in the contest locations.

I agree.

#128
James Jones

Posted 21 June 2018 - 02:51 PM

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My completely unscientific gut feeling right now is that this will be the coolest PNW summer since 2012. September will torch though.


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#129
Front Ranger

Posted 02 July 2018 - 11:32 AM

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SEA
J: 1.4
J: 2.5
A: 0.5

OLM
J: 0.8
J: 2.1
A: 0.0

PDX
J: 1.0
J: 2.3
A: 0.3

CQT
J: -1.0
J: 0.5
A: 0.8

DEN
J: 3.1
J: 0.8
A: 1.0

DCA
J: 0.5
J: 0.8
A: 2.0 

 

This guess appears to be winning so far.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#130
TT-SEA

Posted 02 July 2018 - 11:40 AM

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This guess appears to be winning so far.

 

 

Too bad the contest is for multiple months... I am sure I will end up in last place when all is said and done.    :lol:



#131
Phil

Posted 02 July 2018 - 11:44 AM

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Will calculate it tonight. FWIW, July looks like it could be rough on everyone.
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#132
Jesse

Posted 02 July 2018 - 11:52 AM

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Will calculate it tonight. FWIW, July looks like it could be rough on everyone.


+6 at PDX! Score!!!

#133
TT-SEA

Posted 02 July 2018 - 11:53 AM

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Will calculate it tonight. FWIW, July looks like it could be rough on everyone.

 

 

I am pretty happy with my +2.5 at SEA.

 

I would make the same prediction now.



#134
Phil

Posted 02 July 2018 - 11:55 AM

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I am pretty happy with my +2.5 at SEA.

I would make the same prediction now.


That was my July guess for SEA as well.

Will probably be warmer in reality. I badly underestimated the potency of that UHI bubble. Same for PDX.
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#135
Front Ranger

Posted 02 July 2018 - 12:26 PM

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That was my July guess for SEA as well.

Will probably be warmer in reality. I badly underestimated the potency of that UHI bubble. Same for PDX.

 

The 1.6 difference between OLM and SEA last month was on the high end...probably will be closer this month.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#136
ShawniganLake

Posted 05 July 2018 - 08:16 AM

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Will calculate it tonight. FWIW, July looks like it could be rough on everyone.

Like tonight tonight?

#137
Phil

Posted 05 July 2018 - 01:42 PM

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Like tonight tonight?


Lol, yeah finished all but a few. Definitely tonight.
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#138
TT-SEA

Posted 05 July 2018 - 08:28 PM

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SEA is at +2.2 for July after today... with lots of warm weather ahead.

 

My prediction of +2.5 might be too low.   



#139
Phil

Posted 05 July 2018 - 10:04 PM

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SEA is at +2.2 for July after today... with lots of warm weather ahead.

My prediction of +2.5 might be too low.


Would actually be a pretty good guess if it weren’t for the artificial UHI bulls**t.

#fakewarmth
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#140
TT-SEA

Posted 06 July 2018 - 08:07 AM

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Would actually be a pretty good guess if it weren’t for the artificial UHI bulls**t.

#fakewarmth

 

 

Its real warmth in the Seattle area.    Might not be the way it would be naturally with no development... but the warmth itself is very real.   :)



#141
Front Ranger

Posted 06 July 2018 - 08:55 AM

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Its real warmth in the Seattle area. Might not be the way it would be naturally with no development... but the warmth itself is very real. :)


You know what he means. "Warmth" is relative - anomalies are relative. SEA's current anomalies are not realistically comparable to ones from the past.
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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#142
TT-SEA

Posted 06 July 2018 - 09:34 AM

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You know what he means. "Warmth" is relative - anomalies are relative. SEA's current anomalies are not realistically comparable to ones from the past.


But very real in terms of tangible weather and not going away.

#143
Jesse

Posted 06 July 2018 - 09:53 AM

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But very real in terms of tangible weather and not going away.


Does it make your location warmer? You live pretty far out in the boonies.

UHI is pretty localized. The fact that the addition of the third runway made such a dramatic difference says a lot of about the microscale nature of the phenomenon.
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#144
TT-SEA

Posted 06 July 2018 - 10:20 AM

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Does it make your location warmer? You live pretty far out in the boonies.

UHI is pretty localized. The fact that the addition of the third runway made such a dramatic difference says a lot of about the microscale nature of the phenomenon.

 

 

Not sure... but I am assuming the general development of the entire Seattle area has also made it warmer.    Or maybe its just a warming climate overall.



#145
Jesse

Posted 06 July 2018 - 10:31 AM

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Not sure... but I am assuming the general development of the entire Seattle area has also made it warmer. Or maybe its just a warming climate overall.


The climate is warming. But SEA and PDX routinely run bigger positive anomalies than less developed stations. That is UHI.

I do realize you are doing your playing dumb shtick again though.

#146
TT-SEA

Posted 06 July 2018 - 10:50 AM

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The climate is warming. But SEA and PDX routinely run bigger positive anomalies than less developed stations. That is UHI.

I do realize you are doing your playing dumb shtick again though.

 

 

I am not.

 

When you say UHI... are you referring to the general development of metro areas or specific development within 500 feet of the airport sensor?  Or both?

 

I suspect both are meaningful.      



#147
Phil

Posted 06 July 2018 - 11:45 AM

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I am not.

When you say UHI... are you referring to the general development of metro areas or specific development within 500 feet of the airport sensor? Or both?

I suspect both are meaningful.


Both are meaningful. The third runway alone had probably added as much warming as all of the regional development since the inception of the station.

Based on what I’ve seen in the NCDC data, and what I’ve read from local experts/blogs there, my guess is that:

- approximately 25% of the SeaTac warming is a result of regional development/land use changes.

- another 25% of the warming a result of the third runway alone. There’s a definite jump there after it was constructed, especially on north winds. Red flag.

- the remaining 50% is a result of the regional climate warming (which is notably larger than the global warming component, due to circulation changes that have amplified warming across the western US).

Alignment of the stars to torch SEA. :lol:
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#148
Phil

Posted 06 July 2018 - 11:55 AM

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Check out the difference between Baltimore and DCA if you want an example of the power of UHI.

It’s incredible.

M7ow23M.jpg
gCcwift.jpg
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#149
Phil

Posted 06 July 2018 - 07:36 PM

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Calculating the last of the numbers now. Have three more left, so shouldn’t be too long.

And that elusive cold front has finally arrived! Dropped dewpoints by 10 degrees in an hour, from 75 to 65. It’s like night and day..you can actually breathe now. 😁

K0AZnWy.jpg
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#150
Phil

Posted 10 July 2018 - 11:20 AM

Phil

    Forum Fantastic

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Got it all calculated this morning. Will post when I’m finished working.
  • ShawniganLake likes this
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