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ENSO 2018-19 Observations and Discussion

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#101
Niko

Posted 04 October 2018 - 06:21 AM

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Per Weather2020

 

The New LRC Is Just Days Away From Beginning

Good morning folks:

 

The fun is about to begin.........

 

The old pattern is almost over.  The weather pattern, that we are about to experience for the next year, will begin later this week. There is still strong evidence that we are in the last few days of the old pattern, and the new LRC has yet to begin.  Every year a unique pattern begins around the end of the first week of October. Our team has been discussing how this past pattern was so bad, so unique, and so frustrating to us near Kansas City, that it will likely be  quite obvious when the new pattern begins. And, the evidence is showing up by later this week, which we will be discussing today.

Let’s begin with this mornings radar:

 

Screen-Shot-2018-10-01-at-6.59.36-AM-640

 

There is a small area of mixed precipitation of rain. sleet, and snow near the USA/Canada border early this morning.  Tropical Storm Rosa, what is left of a major CAT 4 hurricane was about to move across Baja California into the southwestern United States. This tropical system is getting absorbed into the new pattern.  This system is a great example of how a major hurricane, Super Typhoon, or any tropical system is just a very small disturbance in the flow that does not help create any pattern, as other meteorologists suggest at this time of the year.  The LRC, the cycling pattern just picks these systems up and they are just as influential as a complex of thunderstorms or disturbance.  Take a look at what happens to Rosa as it enters the overall westerly belt farther north:

1-640x435.png

 

2-640x435.png

 

3-640x398.png

Look at this closely; you have got to be kidding me? Is this really happening? A HUGE trough is predicted by most models to form over the western United States.  This is exhibit A for the new LRC.  This is something so very different. Now, we have to experience this first as it is still on models. It must actually happen first.

 

Fun times ahead folks!


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#102
Thunder98

Posted 04 October 2018 - 02:23 PM

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Interesting El Nino analysis from Howard Sheckter of Mammoth Weather

 

10/04/2018

"The Dweebs had a peak at the latest CPC, CFSv2 Nino SST Forecast through the winter of 2019

This is in reference to The El Nino that’s currently building.

The most remarkable point to make is that in looking at yesterdays forecast numbers, it only shows a few tenths of a degree Celsius difference in the Nino 3.4-3 region as compared to the Nino 1+2 region. The prind point here is that there is not as much support of a Modoki type El Nino in the latest guidance as compared to last month for the upcoming January.  In addition, the trend is away from a Modoki type event. The El Nino forecasted is more suggested of a quasi full basin type. However, what it also shows is that it is weak to moderate El Nino.  More later after the 11th. I will report on the state of the El Nino Forecasted, later in October."

 

https://mammothweath...-the-event-wil/


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#103
OKwx2k4

Posted 04 October 2018 - 03:16 PM

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Interesting El Nino analysis from Howard Sheckter of Mammoth Weather


10/04/2018

"The Dweebs had a peak at the latest CPC, CFSv2 Nino SST Forecast through the winter of 2019

This is in reference to The El Nino that’s currently building.

The most remarkable point to make is that in looking at yesterdays forecast numbers, it only shows a few tenths of a degree Celsius difference in the Nino 3.4-3 region as compared to the Nino 1+2 region. The prind point here is that there is not as much support of a Modoki type El Nino in the latest guidance as compared to last month for the upcoming January. In addition, the trend is away from a Modoki type event. The El Nino forecasted is more suggested of a quasi full basin type. However, what it also shows is that it is weak to moderate El Nino. More later after the 11th. I will report on the state of the El Nino Forecasted, later in October."


https://mammothweath...-the-event-wil/


I'm actually maybe thinking a weak basin wide event is not out of the cards. I cannot call one official until it surfaces though. I'm glad to see the forcing centered just east of the dateline.
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#104
OKwx2k4

Posted 04 October 2018 - 03:28 PM

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Per Weather2020

The New LRC Is Just Days Away From Beginning
Good morning folks:

The fun is about to begin.........

The old pattern is almost over. The weather pattern, that we are about to experience for the next year, will begin later this week. There is still strong evidence that we are in the last few days of the old pattern, and the new LRC has yet to begin. Every year a unique pattern begins around the end of the first week of October. Our team has been discussing how this past pattern was so bad, so unique, and so frustrating to us near Kansas City, that it will likely be quite obvious when the new pattern begins. And, the evidence is showing up by later this week, which we will be discussing today.
Let’s begin with this mornings radar:

Screen-Shot-2018-10-01-at-6.59.36-AM-640

There is a small area of mixed precipitation of rain. sleet, and snow near the USA/Canada border early this morning. Tropical Storm Rosa, what is left of a major CAT 4 hurricane was about to move across Baja California into the southwestern United States. This tropical system is getting absorbed into the new pattern. This system is a great example of how a major hurricane, Super Typhoon, or any tropical system is just a very small disturbance in the flow that does not help create any pattern, as other meteorologists suggest at this time of the year. The LRC, the cycling pattern just picks these systems up and they are just as influential as a complex of thunderstorms or disturbance. Take a look at what happens to Rosa as it enters the overall westerly belt farther north:
1-640x435.png

2-640x435.png

3-640x398.png
Look at this closely; you have got to be kidding me? Is this really happening? A HUGE trough is predicted by most models to form over the western United States. This is exhibit A for the new LRC. This is something so very different. Now, we have to experience this first as it is still on models. It must actually happen first.

Fun times ahead folks!


Thank you for sharing this Niko!!

#105
OKwx2k4

Posted 04 October 2018 - 06:26 PM

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New pattern starting and look at the last 7 days over Russia in the SSTs. That's a win for pushing and keeping cold completely off that side of the globe. I'm not trying to spin anything at all by that. I just dont see any negatives yet.

Attached File  cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1(4).png   132.82KB   1 downloads
Attached File  cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1(9).png   126.4KB   1 downloads
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#106
westMJim

Posted 05 October 2018 - 05:09 AM

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I know there has been a lot of discussions as to what kind of winter that we will have this season. I write a weekly blog on a local Michigan weather site and did some research on past El Nino's and what the total snow fall for that winter season was along with the mean temperatures for the winter months of December, January and February. Here is a brief break down of that research all information is for Grand Rapids Michigan only.

 

Since 1950 there has been a reported 10 winters with a weak El Nino the average snow fall for the 10 years is 74.4” with a range of 104.7” to 39.7” for the winters with a moderate El Nino there have been a reported 7 winter seasons the average for moderate El Nino winters at GRR is 76.7” with a range of 132.0 to 47.6” as for the winters with a strong El Nino there has been a reported 5 winter seasons with a average of 70.9” and a range of 87.8 to 64.2” and for El Nino there is a “very strong” category and there are 3 winters in that list and the average at GRR for the 3 winters is 52.2” with a range of 61.1 to 35.9”

The average snow fall for GRR for the 68 years period from 1949/50 to 2017/18 is 75.9” with a range of 132.0 to 35.9” So the bottom line winter average is weak La Nina 76.3” moderate La Nina 77.8” Strong La Nina 69.5” Weak El Nino 74.4” moderate El Nino 76.7” strong El Nino 70.9” very strong El Nino (only 3 winters) 52.2” all winter since 1949/50 75.9”

El Nino winters by intensity and snow fall and winter (Dec/Feb) mean temperatures

Weak

1952/53 snow fall 39.7” mean temp 29.5°°

1953/54 snow fall 78.3” mean temp 29.4°

1958/59 snow fall 104.7” mean temp 20.2°

1969/70 snow fall 84.6” mean temp  24.1°

1976/77 snow fall 70.8” mean temp 18.1°

1977/78 snow fall 84.6” mean temp 19.8°

1979/80 snow fall 48.5” mean temp 26.8°

2004/05 snow fall 81.7” mean temp 25.9°

2006/07 snow fall 83.3” mean temp 27.0°

2014/15 snow fall 78.1” mean temp 22.1°

Moderate El Nino winter

1951/52 snow fall 132.0 mean temp 26.9

1963/64 snow fall 70.4” mean temp 24.5°

1968/69 snow fall 72.3” mean temp 23.1

1986/87 snow fall 47.6” mean temp 28.3°

1994/95 snow fall 54.6° mean temp 27.6°

2002/03 snow fall 88.6” mean temp 22.1°

2009/10 snow fall 72.2” mean temp 26.7°

Strong El Nino winters

1957/58 snow fall 70.3” mean temp 24.9

1965/66 snow fall 67.0” mean temp 25.6°

1972/73 snow fall 65.5” mean temp 25.5°

1987/88 snow fall 64.2” mean temp 24.3°

1991/92 snow fall 87.8” mean temp 29.0°

 

Very strong El Nino winters

1982/83 snow fall 35.9” mean temp 31.5°

1997/98 snow fall 59.8”  mean temp 31.5°

2015/16 snow fall 61.1” mean temp 31.5°

 

So now it is time to set back as see how this winter will compare to past El Nino winters here at Grand Rapids.


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#107
Niko

Posted 05 October 2018 - 05:52 AM

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Thank you for sharing this Niko!!

You bet Amigo!


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#108
jaster220

Posted 05 October 2018 - 08:21 AM

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I know there has been a lot of discussions as to what kind of winter that we will have this season. I write a weekly blog on a local Michigan weather site and did some research on past El Nino's and what the total snow fall for that winter season was along with the mean temperatures for the winter months of December, January and February. Here is a brief break down of that research all information is for Grand Rapids Michigan only.

 

Since 1950 there has been a reported 10 winters with a weak El Nino the average snow fall for the 10 years is 74.4” with a range of 104.7” to 39.7” for the winters with a moderate El Nino there have been a reported 7 winter seasons the average for moderate El Nino winters at GRR is 76.7” with a range of 132.0 to 47.6” as for the winters with a strong El Nino there has been a reported 5 winter seasons with a average of 70.9” and a range of 87.8 to 64.2” and for El Nino there is a “very strong” category and there are 3 winters in that list and the average at GRR for the 3 winters is 52.2” with a range of 61.1 to 35.9”

The average snow fall for GRR for the 68 years period from 1949/50 to 2017/18 is 75.9” with a range of 132.0 to 35.9” So the bottom line winter average is weak La Nina 76.3” moderate La Nina 77.8” Strong La Nina 69.5” Weak El Nino 74.4” moderate El Nino 76.7” strong El Nino 70.9” very strong El Nino (only 3 winters) 52.2” all winter since 1949/50 75.9”

El Nino winters by intensity and snow fall and winter (Dec/Feb) mean temperatures

Weak

1952/53 snow fall 39.7” mean temp 29.5°°

1953/54 snow fall 78.3” mean temp 29.4°

1958/59 snow fall 104.7” mean temp 20.2°

1969/70 snow fall 84.6” mean temp  24.1°

1976/77 snow fall 70.8” mean temp 18.1°

1977/78 snow fall 84.6” mean temp 19.8°

1979/80 snow fall 48.5” mean temp 26.8°

2004/05 snow fall 81.7” mean temp 25.9°

2006/07 snow fall 83.3” mean temp 27.0°

2014/15 snow fall 78.1” mean temp 22.1°

Moderate El Nino winter

1951/52 snow fall 132.0 mean temp 26.9

1963/64 snow fall 70.4” mean temp 24.5°

1968/69 snow fall 72.3” mean temp 23.1

1986/87 snow fall 47.6” mean temp 28.3°

1994/95 snow fall 54.6° mean temp 27.6°

2002/03 snow fall 88.6” mean temp 22.1°

2009/10 snow fall 72.2” mean temp 26.7°

Strong El Nino winters

1957/58 snow fall 70.3” mean temp 24.9

1965/66 snow fall 67.0” mean temp 25.6°

1972/73 snow fall 65.5” mean temp 25.5°

1987/88 snow fall 64.2” mean temp 24.3°

1991/92 snow fall 87.8” mean temp 29.0°

 

Very strong El Nino winters

1982/83 snow fall 35.9” mean temp 31.5°

1997/98 snow fall 59.8”  mean temp 31.5°

2015/16 snow fall 61.1” mean temp 31.5°

 

So now it is time to set back as see how this winter will compare to past El Nino winters here at Grand Rapids.

 

Nice write-up westMJim

 

Weak Nino's do average out as the coldest group it appears and also 7 of 10 examples featured above normal snowfall. Good odds. With the colder regime Nino's comes a track suppressed further south and I'd bet a lot of GR's snow during those seasons came via LES. But, there's those two triple-digit seasons (interestingly both back in the 50's) that indicates occasionally GR gets a pattern very conducive to both system and LES or perhaps just a much more favorable wind flow direction. Seasons such as 77-78 could have been even bigger for GR down to BC had it not been for a very predominant NW flow trajectory during cold waves which ofc gave places like S Bend there record 172 inch season which featured a 2-Footer LES event in November and the monster 3-Footer with the January bomb.



#109
Niko

Posted 05 October 2018 - 08:32 AM

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Nice write-up westMJim

 

Weak Nino's do average out as the coldest group it appears and also 7 of 10 examples featured above normal snowfall. Good odds. With the colder regime Nino's comes a track suppressed further south and I'd bet a lot of GR's snow during those seasons came via LES. But, there's those two triple-digit seasons (interestingly both back in the 50's) that indicates occasionally GR gets a pattern very conducive to both system and LES or perhaps just a much more favorable wind flow direction. Seasons such as 77-78 could have been even bigger for GR down to BC had it not been for a very predominant NW flow trajectory during cold waves which ofc gave places like S Bend there record 172 inch season which featured a 2-Footer LES event in November and the monster 3-Footer with the January bomb.

I am hoping for the real big one this Winter, since everything is aligning great, weatherwise. :unsure:


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#110
Niko

Posted 05 October 2018 - 08:33 AM

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New pattern starting and look at the last 7 days over Russia in the SSTs. That's a win for pushing and keeping cold completely off that side of the globe. I'm not trying to spin anything at all by that. I just dont see any negatives yet.

attachicon.gifcdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1(4).png
attachicon.gifcdas-sflux_ssta_global_1(9).png

Lets hope you don't. We do not want last second changes in our great Winter weather coming up.



#111
jaster220

Posted 05 October 2018 - 10:57 AM

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Lets hope you don't. We do not want last second changes in our great Winter weather coming up.

 

Tom already covered that with the QBO reversal underway... ;)


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#112
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 October 2018 - 07:50 PM

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Tom already covered that with the QBO reversal underway... ;)


Only "cue scary music..." feature I have seen so far. Dang QBO. Still probably 8/10 positive things going for us though and if the QBO doesn't get very high, should be ok. Maybe solar can do the AO work or it may just get shoved on our side all winter without going negative.
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#113
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 October 2018 - 07:52 PM

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That +TNH pattern I shared, Jaster, is basically a +EPO driven cold pattern with +PNA ridge. I didn't mean to ignore you. Busy day.
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#114
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 October 2018 - 07:57 PM

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westMJim, love the stats write-ups. They help put things in perspective where all the info is easy to see and assimilate quickly. Even for me,(because I'm in Oklahoma) those statistics help me remember years and events. Thank you.
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#115
jaster220

Posted 05 October 2018 - 09:13 PM

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Only "cue scary music..." feature I have seen so far. Dang QBO. Still probably 8/10 positive things going for us though and if the QBO doesn't get very high, should be ok. Maybe solar can do the AO work or it may just get shoved on our side all winter without going negative.

 

So true. Can't imagine ever being a time when you could go 10 for 10 with indices. Always those outliers it seems. With one of the strongest analogs in 77-78 featuring a +QBO (and 13-14 featuring a +AO all winter) it's obvious that a normally bad contributor can be over-ridden if/when Ma Nature decides to do so. And thx for your break-down of the TNH above. Cheers!


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#116
jaster220

Posted 12 October 2018 - 07:13 PM

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The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, consistent with the recent strengthening of westerly wind anomalies and positive temperature trends in the surface and subsurface ocean.  In summary, El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance)

 

Per NOAA update yesterday, Oct 11th

 

Full article:

 

file:///C:/Users/Ed/AppData/Local/Temp/ensodisc.pdf


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#117
Andie

Posted 13 October 2018 - 09:16 AM

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If the rain we are experiencing on the Southern Plains is an example of a "weak El Niño" I sure as heck don't look forward to the full floor show.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#118
Tom

Posted 16 October 2018 - 02:35 AM

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Wow, that is some very warm water building deep in the central PAC ocean...

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif


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#119
OKwx2k4

Posted 16 October 2018 - 07:42 AM

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Wow, that is some very warm water building deep in the central PAC ocean...

wkxzteq_anm.gif


Just keep 1.2 cold like it is and we're all set. :)
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#120
Andie

Posted 16 October 2018 - 09:10 AM

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Are we looking at an El Niño Modokai ?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#121
jaster220

Posted 16 October 2018 - 06:05 PM

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Wow, that is some very warm water building deep in the central PAC ocean...

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

I'm certainly no expert on ocean temp's or currents. The hot stuff appears to be focused at a depth of 500 ft (give or take). Now, that seems deep but if the Pacific in that region is 5000 ft deep, then we're only talking the upper 10%. Practically the surface, lol. Now, is this ~12F increase caused by under water volcanoes? or something else? Heat normally rises so why is this staying at that depth?



#122
Tom

Posted 17 October 2018 - 02:49 AM

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Are we looking at an El Niño Modokai ?

That's the expectation.

 

I'm certainly no expert on ocean temp's or currents. The hot stuff appears to be focused at a depth of 500 ft (give or take). Now, that seems deep but if the Pacific in that region is 5000 ft deep, then we're only talking the upper 10%. Practically the surface, lol. Now, is this ~12F increase caused by under water volcanoes? or something else? Heat normally rises so why is this staying at that depth?

I'll be honest, I have no idea, but I've been studying/reading more about underground volcanoes warming parts of the oceans, esp in the Arctic/Antarctic regions.


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#123
Andie

Posted 19 October 2018 - 10:29 AM

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That's the expectation.


I'll be honest, I have no idea, but I've been studying/reading more about underground volcanoes warming parts of the oceans, esp in the Arctic/Antarctic regions.

Thanks. Thought maybe so.

I've read on underwater volcanoes for some time. There are at least a million volcanoes of varying size, fissures, and fumerols in the oceans. Not to mention methane hydrate, which we should all be glad it's frozen and under great pressure.
The Antarctic has a considerable amount of volcanic activity under the ice sheet that has been breaking off so much. Many blame AGW but they refuse to acknoledge the geology. I suspect Antarctica has many wonderful mysteries in its pockets.
The Atlantic has the Mid Atlantic ridge which is rich in fissures and culminates in Icelands activities. The ocean is truly the womb of life for the earth. Without the chemicals and energy we receive from the ocean volcanic activity we'd be a dead planet.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#124
OKwx2k4

Posted 20 October 2018 - 12:26 AM

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My personal belief is that enso state has a lot to do with the sun. Its almost traceable with solar and has a similar long term cycle structure.
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#125
Niko

Posted 02 November 2018 - 08:21 AM

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Latest on ENSO:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf



#126
Tom

Posted 04 November 2018 - 03:32 AM

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The modoki Nino flavor is showing itself over the last couple weeks.  Big spike in SST's across the central PAC ENSO 3.4 region...

 

nino34.png

 

 

This season, may be on it's own in terms of placement of critical warm/cold pools across the entire PAC.  For instance, back in '02/'03 the warm blob was present in the NE PAC but it had a weaker modoki signal.  This year, the warm blob is nearly in the same position, however, the central PAC is growing much warmer.  Could this be the fuel that keeps the fire burning all season long???  Meaning, does the STJ keep loading up as we progress towards winter??  I think so, the warm/cold/warm from north to south in the PAC is a really ideal set up.  Our sub has had a very wet autumn and I think it's just the beginning.  

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png



#127
jaster220

Posted 04 November 2018 - 08:15 AM

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The modoki Nino flavor is showing itself over the last couple weeks.  Big spike in SST's across the central PAC ENSO 3.4 region...

 

nino34.png

 

 

This season, may be on it's own in terms of placement of critical warm/cold pools across the entire PAC.  For instance, back in '02/'03 the warm blob was present in the NE PAC but it had a weaker modoki signal.  This year, the warm blob is nearly in the same position, however, the central PAC is growing much warmer.  Could this be the fuel that keeps the fire burning all season long???  Meaning, does the STJ keep loading up as we progress towards winter??  I think so, the warm/cold/warm from north to south in the PAC is a really ideal set up.  Our sub has had a very wet autumn and I think it's just the beginning.  

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

Our sub has had a very wet autumn and I think it's just the beginning

 

So does JB



#128
OKwx2k4

Posted 04 November 2018 - 09:59 AM

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I fully agree Tom and Jaster.
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