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August 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#1
LNK_Weather

Posted 27 July 2018 - 07:32 PM

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I know Tom typically starts these but I'm impatient.

 

Wow July flew by. I think this is the latest we've ever started a new monthly thread! August should be the nicest month of met Summer around these parts. Euro weeklies are showing a yo-yo pattern but I have a hard time believing the control run because it makes a trough magically disappear within two days. 

 

GFS is saying we start out August like we're ending July. Nice and cool.

Attached File  gfs_t2m_a_f_mc_25.png   235.38KB   0 downloads

 

However, it does warm up near the end of the run. Euro is the same way. The good news is that throughout the runs, there are precip chances aplenty across the sub.

 

Discuss.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#2
Tom

Posted 28 July 2018 - 11:58 AM

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I know Tom typically starts these but I'm impatient.

Wow July flew by. I think this is the latest we've ever started a new monthly thread! August should be the nicest month of met Summer around these parts. Euro weeklies are showing a yo-yo pattern but I have a hard time believing the control run because it makes a trough magically disappear within two days.

GFS is saying we start out August like we're ending July. Nice and cool.
gfs_t2m_a_f_mc_25.png

However, it does warm up near the end of the run. Euro is the same way. The good news is that throughout the runs, there are precip chances aplenty across the sub.

Discuss.


I have been swamped with work this past week and literally had no time till today. Actually, until I saw this post, I was going to fire one up. Glad you started one. I’ll pin it later.
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#3
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 July 2018 - 12:47 PM

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Been watching these since around July 10. In all honesty, going forward into the iffy ranges (3-5 weeks), the CFS and GFS have handled our foresaw pattern changes quite well. Been running a negative anomaly here for August for a good week or more. I like this look. Think any warmth in our area gets washed n squashed out rather fast going forward. The sun's dead. Do we see blocking startup for real this month? This would be totally backwards to last season or probably the last 5.

Attached File  CL001_2MTEMP_DEP_MONTHLY_E_1.png   110.25KB   0 downloads

I like what I see.
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#4
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 July 2018 - 01:47 PM

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AO agrees with the CFS look in the map above quite well. This also tells me the GFS may be overwarmed in the extended range as it seems that it struggles with underforecasting AO swings. I'd think we'd see that reflected in the next few days of modeling after this big late-summer cool shot closes out July. I just really cannot see doing 6-8 weeks of dry hot calm boring weather like the last 3 years of late summers and early autumns.
Attached File  ao.sprd2(4).gif   24.27KB   0 downloads

I look forward to Tom's input, when he has time, on the various other drivers and forcings we're looking at going forward. He seems to have the pulse of a few significant (becoming very significant over next 2-3 weeks) things this year that I haven't had the opportunity to follow very closely just yet.
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#5
Tom

Posted 30 July 2018 - 07:48 AM

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I haven't had the time to post much in this thread since last week.  It's been a hectic period trying to balance work, life and time for some relaxation.  This may be a long post so here we go...

 

To begin, the heat is coming back...the so-called "death ridge", which has been a common theme since May, until recently, will rear its ugly head across parts of the central CONUS.  Although, I do not see it shift as far east as it did back in June and early July.  The ridge should be transient across the eastern ag belt/GL's region later this week into the weekend, focusing more across the Plains and the inter-mountain west as we progress into Week 2.  I feel that the Week of 15th we circle back to the amplified west coast ridge pattern which should cool the Plains states back down.

 

Firstly, there is a pop in the EPO allowing for an "inside slider" riding down the NW NAMER coastline allowing to pump the ridge to the east.  This has happened in this year's pattern BUT it did not last.  Instead, what we will likely see is a transitional period out of the cooler weather for about a week before the pattern re-aligns again by the end of the following week or the Week of the 12th   I think ORD has a better chance of some more 90's which may be a bust on my part, however, if there are clouds/storms near by over the weekend it could inhibit the higher temps.  Dry grounds don't help.  Near the GL's, watch for a sneaky Canadian HP to slide down out of Canada next week as a stout eastern Canada ridge builds in.

 

4indices.png

 

The Euro has a known bias of keeping troughs along the west coast, while the GFS/CFSv2 tend to handle the pattern somewhat better.  The waters are blow torching in the NE PAC and this will certainly start becoming a player this month, more like the 2nd half.  Models tend to under play the meaningful impact of the warmth of the waters.

.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

 

The sky high +PNA pattern causing the major heat out in the west won't go away anytime soon, although, some cooling will take place in the PAC NW later this week.  The strength of this ridge in the west pushes its way into the central CONUS...but how long will it last???

 

 

pna.sprd2.gif

 

 

We finally may have a -AO/-NAO pattern in tandem, however, I'm not going to hold my breath.  Maybe a neutral NAO may be more in line with how things evolve towards the middle of the month.  

 

nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

The reason behind why I think the central Plains bake and folks farther east nasso much, is directly related to the blocky pattern showing up across eastern Canada and the +PNA pattern.  Typically, this causes NW Flow so I'm agreeing with the wetter pattern Week 2 across the eastern ag belt.  A shift from the cooler/wetter Plains, towards a hotter and drier pattern makes sense....allowing more much needed rainfall towards the MW/GL's region.  I must say, the one positive from all the dryness around here is that it has dwindled the Mosquito population.

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_4.png

 

 

 

I'll dive into the second half of the month later today or sometime this week.  

 


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#6
Tom

Posted 31 July 2018 - 03:27 AM

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"The Dog Days of Summer" will be the theme as we open up the first full week of August across much of the central CONUS, esp in the central/southern Plains where the SW ridge will build back into the region late week.  Is the Euro off its rocker pushing 100F heat in IA next week???  I know its been drier in this region, but man, that would be ridiculous, esp with the mature crop and insane humidity.  I have my doubts as its been much to warm in the 6-10 day period and eventually cools down as we get closer.  For instance, over the last 2 runs, the Euro is trending cooler near the Northwoods/GL's region for this weekend.  It's still warm, to hot, but not nearly as hot as it was.  In any case, the warmer theme is on tap so enjoy the last day (s) of this delightful weather.



#7
Hawkeye

Posted 31 July 2018 - 04:53 AM

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The op Euro and GFS are now hitting 100 here by late in the 10-day period.  However, 100 is at the very top of the Euro ensemble guidance.  The ensemble mean has been consistently in the low 90s.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#8
Stacsh

Posted 31 July 2018 - 06:47 AM

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"The Dog Days of Summer" will be the theme as we open up the first full week of August across much of the central CONUS, esp in the central/southern Plains where the SW ridge will build back into the region late week.  Is the Euro off its rocker pushing 100F heat in IA next week???  I know its been drier in this region, but man, that would be ridiculous, esp with the mature crop and insane humidity.  I have my doubts as its been much to warm in the 6-10 day period and eventually cools down as we get closer.  For instance, over the last 2 runs, the Euro is trending cooler near the Northwoods/GL's region for this weekend.  It's still warm, to hot, but not nearly as hot as it was.  In any case, the warmer theme is on tap so enjoy the last day (s) of this delightful weather.

 

Yeah, not liking this long term from GRR: "Very little rain is in the forecast during the long term and the

emerging drought conditions will likely get worse. Isolated to
scattered chances are our best bet, which isn`t much". 

 

It has "rained" twice here in what is now about a month.   I gave up on grass and just threw some flowers away due to being gone for a few days.  The brief cooler weather was nice but never got a good soaking.    The lake shadow has not been kind to us along the Lake Michigan shore in West Michigan. 


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#9
westMJim

Posted 31 July 2018 - 09:29 AM

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Yeah, not liking this long term from GRR: "Very little rain is in the forecast during the long term and the

emerging drought conditions will likely get worse. Isolated to
scattered chances are our best bet, which isn`t much". 

 

It has "rained" twice here in what is now about a month.   I gave up on grass and just threw some flowers away due to being gone for a few days.  The brief cooler weather was nice but never got a good soaking.    The lake shadow has not been kind to us along the Lake Michigan shore in West Michigan. 

Same here at my house. There was a good storm to my NE on Sunday I could see the rain falling but not a drop at my house. Then yesterday there was rain to my south and once again not a drop here. Today it is cloudy and the official forecast calls for rain to the SE of here. While I have seen it much dryer it non the less is getting dry here. BTW GRR has had much more rain then I have this month.


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#10
james1976

Posted 31 July 2018 - 03:48 PM

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Local met has the death ridge goin for basically the first half of August.

#11
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 July 2018 - 10:12 PM

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Yeah, not liking this long term from GRR: "Very little rain is in the forecast during the long term and the
emerging drought conditions will likely get worse. Isolated toscattered chances are our best bet, which isn`t much". 
 
It has "rained" twice here in what is now about a month.   I gave up on grass and just threw some flowers away due to being gone for a few days.  The brief cooler weather was nice but never got a good soaking.    The lake shadow has not been kind to us along the Lake Michigan shore in West Michigan.

  

Same here at my house. There was a good storm to my NE on Sunday I could see the rain falling but not a drop at my house. Then yesterday there was rain to my south and once again not a drop here. Today it is cloudy and the official forecast calls for rain to the SE of here. While I have seen it much dryer it non the less is getting dry here. BTW GRR has had much more rain then I have this month.

Here's hoping you folks up there get some rain soon.

#12
Tom

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:51 AM

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Yeah. Had great showers and storms the the last few days with 2.02" of rain. Not a bad pickup to close July. Finished at 3.39".

attachicon.gifrainrfc.720hr(2).png

Closed it out with a foggy drizzly July morning. Pretty weird to have fog like that here in July. Hung around until around 10 before it cleared. Another diverse month like the rest of this year. I even wore sleeves this morning.

I bet that felt great!  This month has treated you pretty well I'd say.  A bit of everything.


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#13
Tom

Posted 01 August 2018 - 02:29 AM

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While there is some heat coming our way this weekend, it will be transient near the GL's and parts of the MW.  Cooler changes Week 2 now starting to show since yesterday's 12z suite of runs.  The idea was for a sneaky HP to skirt down out of Canada early next week and that may in fact happen now.  On the flip side, those farther to the west and south will continue to bake!

 

Here's where I had problems when I saw the strong trough the Euro had been advertising hugging NW NAMER.  Notice the big shifts of the trough along the NW NAMER coast.  My gut and past experience told me this would not last and to look for a shift west.  I've been waiting for the Euro/EPS to jump on this and low and behold, it did just that last night.

 

Check out the big shift which allows for the "inside slider" to track off shore along the west coast and "sneak" a system down out of Canada.  The +PNA is also helping amplify the wx pattern across N.A. and yes, high lat blocking is effecting it also.  By early next week, you can see a hint of a trough right where the Euro was blow torching 90's/100's just a couple days ago.

 

FWIW, the FV3-GFS has done a real good job sniffing out the pattern in the longer range.  It's not a bad tool.

 

 



#14
Tom

Posted 01 August 2018 - 05:10 AM

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I have some extra time this morning to dive into the longer range pattern, as I promised to provide some insight on what my thoughts are for the second half of the month. While there was data showing the heat would be never ending, my gut told me to stick to my guns and wait for the changes.  Well, I'm actually more confident now that during the Week of the 12th, the pattern re-aligns itself back to the amplified one we saw during the second half of July.

 

Later this month, IMO we will likely see some bigger troughs swing through as a more persistent NW Flow pattern evolves.  The west is going to fry big time and I think anyone east of the Rockies will see a nice cooler pattern settle in.  As normal temps continue to decline throughout the month, the effect of the BN temp anomalies during the second half will be quite comfortable as we settle out with met Summer.

 

FWIW, CPC's take on August...I think the ones hitting the street hard with the heat are making changes.

 

 



#15
westMJim

Posted 01 August 2018 - 06:17 AM

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As we start August here is a short summary of July 2018 for Grand Rapids and parts of Michigan this is also in the July discussion.

 

July 2018 summary for Grand Rapids.  The average H/L was 85.1°/63.7° The hottest day(s) was 94 on the 1st and 4th the coolest low was 54 on the 7th the mean for the month was 74.4° that is a departure of +1.9° there were 8 days of 90 or better. The official rain fall total at the airport was 2.30” but here at my house it was just 1.21” 8 days were clear 20 partly cloudy and 3 were cloudy.  July 2018 was the 21st warmest July at Grand Rapids

July 2018 will be one of the warmest on record in parts of Michigan.  At Sault Ste Marie with a mean of 70.2° is tied with 1955 for its  3rd warmest July on record with only 1921 and 2012 being warmer. Records have been kept at the Sault since 1888. At Alpena it is the same story with a mean of 71.3L July will be their  5th warmest July on record. Records there have been taken since 1917. While at Marquette just 165 miles to the west with its mean of 66.4° it is only the 52nd warmest July there. Here at Grand Rapids with the mean of 74.4° and at Lansing with a mean of 73.2° At both locations it was the21st warmest July. And at Muskegon with a mean of 73.5 they had in 10th warmest.


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#16
james1976

Posted 01 August 2018 - 06:19 AM

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August 1st already! Only 1 month til met Fall. Cant believe it.
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#17
Tom

Posted 01 August 2018 - 06:36 AM

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06z GEFS 48hr 500mb changes....whoops!

 

NE PAC ridge flexing its muscles...now, if that Bearing Sea trough gets going during the second half of August, look out for a cool to cold Sept for areas in our sub.  It may even have an abrupt end to the growing season in the northern tier (might be to bold of a statement right there).  A fascinating wx pattern is evolving, one that will surely provide interesting weather across our sub forum this month.

 

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_13.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_19.png


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#18
james1976

Posted 01 August 2018 - 07:17 AM

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06z GEFS 48hr 500mb changes....whoops!

NE PAC ridge flexing its muscles...now, if that Bearing Sea trough gets going during the second half of August, look out for a cool to cold Sept for areas in our sub. It may even have an abrupt end to the growing season in the northern tier (might be to bold of a statement right there). A fascinating wx pattern is evolving, one that will surely provide interesting weather across our sub forum this month.


gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_13.png



gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_19.png

That looks very impressive and intriguing to me. I always love watching late summer into fall transition.
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#19
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 August 2018 - 07:38 AM

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Happy last month of met Summer. June and July flew by for me and it's hard to believe that we are only a month away from football season and met Fall. It seems like just yesterday the corn was getting planted. The end is in sight, folks. 76.3*F.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#20
Tom

Posted 01 August 2018 - 07:44 AM

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Yikes, some parts of the Northwoods up in NE MN near the U.S./Canadian border are getting a real taste of Autumn!  A couple more pleasant days/nights across the GL's region before a brief period of summer returns.

 

 

Current conditions at Grand Marais/Cook County Airport (KCKC) Lat: 47.84°NLon: 90.39°WElev: 1784ft.
ovc.png

Overcast

48°F

9°C


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#21
Hawkeye

Posted 01 August 2018 - 11:30 AM

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Boy, the op Euro has made a major reversal in the extended period.  A couple days ago it was scorch city.  Now it's north flow and 70s to mid 80s.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#22
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 August 2018 - 01:32 AM

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06z GEFS 48hr 500mb changes....whoops!

NE PAC ridge flexing its muscles...now, if that Bearing Sea trough gets going during the second half of August, look out for a cool to cold Sept for areas in our sub. It may even have an abrupt end to the growing season in the northern tier (might be to bold of a statement right there). A fascinating wx pattern is evolving, one that will surely provide interesting weather across our sub forum this month.


gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_13.png



gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_19.png


Cold August! What a great model turnaround! I'm glad I did a better job sticking with my guns on that one. :lol: If the GEFS is showing "hints" of what is to come in mid-month with the trough reload and blocking, it will still be really hard to get any lasting or meaningful heat for the majority of us in relation to average. I hadn't seen a model lag it's own teleconnection forecast that far in a long time.

#23
Tom

Posted 02 August 2018 - 02:02 AM

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Cold August! What a great model turnaround! I'm glad I did a better job sticking with my guns on that one. :lol: If the GEFS is showing "hints" of what is to come in mid-month with the trough reload and blocking, it will still be really hard to get any lasting or meaningful heat for the majority of us in relation to average. I hadn't seen a model lag it's own teleconnection forecast that far in a long time.

TBH, the Euro flipped Bigly and followed the GFS lead in the longer range with next weeks pattern.  You don't see that too often.  The 00z EPS continues cooling Week 2.

 

DjlONqtU4AEMfkK.jpg



#24
Tom

Posted 02 August 2018 - 02:13 AM

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Here's a series of maps off the JMA weeklies run today showing the warm blob in theNE PAC, cooling near the Aleutian Islands, expanding pocket of cold waters NW of Hawaii, and finally, ENSO neutral conditions across the equatorial PAC.

 

Current run...

 

Y201808.D0112_gls.png

 

Last week..

 

Y201807.D2512_gls.png

 

3 Weeks ago...

 

Y201807.D1812_gls.png

 

1 month ago...

 

Y201807.D1112_gls.png

 

 

There is a good indication of where we may be heading later this month.  Models are trying to develop a Bearing Sea/Aleutian trough Week 2 which would support a cooler pattern for the 2nd half of the month.  If the trends of where the current pockets of warm/cold waters across the N PAC continue into Sept, boy, how could you not get excited about the Autumn/Winter???

 

 



#25
Tom

Posted 02 August 2018 - 02:26 AM

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The signal is there for some much needed rainfall Sunday night into early next week across the MW/GL's where it has been dry.  Some big time boomers may develop on the northern edge of the heat dome.

 

Both GFS/Euro suggesting widespread pockets of 1-2" rains across the northern ag belt in IA/MN/WI/IL/MI.  



#26
Tom

Posted 02 August 2018 - 02:37 AM

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Here is something that caught my eye when I flipped through the models this morning.  It's becoming clear that we may have a re-curving western PAC tropical system that tracks into the Bearing Sea.  Almost all of them really bomb this system out as it approaches where the waters have warmed considerably.  It looks like the very warm waters will enhance this system and provide some fuel.

 

 

Y201808.D0112_gls.png

 

 

Compare the GFS/GGEM/EURO...

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_npac_33.png

 

gem_mslpaNorm_npac_34.png

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_npac_9.png



#27
Tom

Posted 02 August 2018 - 03:24 AM

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It's interesting watching not only the GEFS, but the EPS as well, showing the corrections west with the mean ridge near the west coast and across W Canada resulting in a mean trough shifting towards the central CONUS.



#28
Tom

Posted 02 August 2018 - 03:41 AM

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If the GEFS are right, my call for a re-alignment of the pattern during the Week of the 12th, towards the amplified pattern we saw in late July, may be spot on.  Might even snap right on the 12th of the month which is earlier than expected. 

 

As I sit here and analyze the data, one has to wonder what these maps will look like in Sept, let along Oct/Nov when nature energizes the jet.  I'll be the first to come out and say, that we will prob see something along the lines of: https://www.washingt...m=.168f1f62c593

 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_21.png



#29
james1976

Posted 02 August 2018 - 04:40 AM

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Love seeing the model flips and a cooler outlook. Last night local met had 90 and humid for a few days but then back to low-mid 80s by Wed next week. Mayfe it will trend cooler.
Last evening i had a pretty strong t-storm move thru and dropped 0.43". Nice little drink.
This morning is rather fall-like. I had 55 on my way into work! Stratus deck moved in as the sun was rising. This morning is another taste of fall. We've had a few of those lately.
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#30
Tom

Posted 02 August 2018 - 04:44 AM

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d**n, Int'l Falls dropped to near Freezing last night!  This was the part of the pattern I thought would swing through in late July, but ended up happening last night instead.

 

 

 

Tab1FileL.png?64df4f1a6984537bc2f1a17366


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#31
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 August 2018 - 07:07 AM

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All, I can say is that the atmosphere needs to keep on doing what it is doing. Tom covered it quite extensively, I'd say. I am happy and really quite bewildered a little to see almost all of the changes you'd like to see all at once. It just rarely happens that way. Good stuff. While August is still a summer month, there are definitely more things than usual to keep the mind engaged at this point if you like fall and winter.
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#32
westMJim

Posted 02 August 2018 - 08:08 AM

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There was a thunderstorm over night in the Grand Rapids area and at the airport they did receive aver a half inch of rain. BUT here at my house that was not the case. Even as a clap of thunder woke me up and rain did fall here at my house there was only 0.06″ of rain for that. I know it will rain here someday but wow it sure is getting dry in my back (and front) yard.


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#33
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 August 2018 - 10:18 AM

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Not in this sub obviously, but did anyone see the 12z GFS that shows 2 hurricanes merging in the Pacific? Awesome loop.

Attached Files


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#34
james1976

Posted 02 August 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Not in this sub obviously, but did anyone see the 12z GFS that shows 2 hurricanes merging in the Pacific? Awesome loop.

Thats wild!
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#35
Niko

Posted 02 August 2018 - 12:39 PM

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Well, back in MI. Current temp is 84F w partly to mostly cloudy skies.

 

Btw: took a sneak peek at the extended outlook from Accu-Weather and shows mid to late October turns quite chilly, if not cold. :blink:



#36
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 August 2018 - 07:48 PM

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Backed off on the 90’s here for next week, now 85-87 most of the week with storm chances. The longer we can go keeping away a string of 90’s it keeps getting closer to September. Usually 90’s in September are more tolerable with typically lower dew points and by September 1 most irrigation is complete and systems are shut down.
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#37
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 August 2018 - 09:26 PM

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Drove a bit today. I noticed the corn is losing some of its green-ness. Could mean the end of humidity is in sight. With how fast it was growing some fields could be ready for harvest as early as the first couple weeks of September. 76.8*F.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#38
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 August 2018 - 09:38 PM

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Not in this sub obviously, but did anyone see the 12z GFS that shows 2 hurricanes merging in the Pacific? Awesome loop.


That's awesome!
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#39
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 August 2018 - 05:28 AM

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Severe warned storms just to the west. A nice little Friday morning surprise. We need a little rain. My lawn is browning out. First time I’ve had to get the sprinkler out in 4 or 5 years.

#40
Tom

Posted 03 August 2018 - 06:39 AM

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AZ has been enduring one of the most active Monsoon seasons since my family has lived there.  Check out these images of last night's Haboob:

 

DjpCzYWVsAAMBWv.jpg

 

DjpCy4RUwAAYVXL.jpg


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#41
Stacsh

Posted 03 August 2018 - 07:20 AM

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I'm not seeing anything but near to AN temps for the GL's through the first 18 days of August. 



#42
LNK_Weather

Posted 03 August 2018 - 07:54 AM

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I'm not seeing anything but near to AN temps for the GL's through the first 18 days of August. 

Same here. Seems like we'll stick close to normal for the foreseeable future. Honestly I'm fine with that. I'll take it over what we had in June.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 3.5"             Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#43
Niko

Posted 03 August 2018 - 08:32 AM

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Rear Tornado (weak) hit parts of Queens, NY last night. Lot of damages. Crazy weather.


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#44
BrianJK

Posted 04 August 2018 - 04:32 AM

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Got a heater this weekend. 95 and 94 in my P&C today and tomorrow and 90 on Monday which would make it an official heat wave should that happen. Really could use some rain. Like others, i also had to get the sprinkler out as my lawn was looking more like straw than grass.
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#45
Tom

Posted 04 August 2018 - 07:52 AM

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Got a heater this weekend. 95 and 94 in my P&C today and tomorrow and 90 on Monday which would make it an official heat wave should that happen. Really could use some rain. Like others, i also had to get the sprinkler out as my lawn was looking more like straw than grass.

We may rally today and surpass the hottest day of the summer.  ORD already at 90F at 11:00am...#heat!


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#46
westMJim

Posted 04 August 2018 - 08:04 AM

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While GRR has had 0.64” of rain this month here at my house it has only been 0.06” so things are getting dry in NW Grand Rapids. Today looks to be yet another very warm and humid but dry day. The latest reading at GRR is 84° with a DP of 71° here at my house I have a temperature of 86° with a DP of 71°



#47
CentralNebWeather

Posted 04 August 2018 - 08:45 AM

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Another.40 last night, heavier amounts over an inch in places. We are getting close to a couple more rains, of farmers not having to use irrigation systems anymore. Usually September 1 is the end of the season depending on how the entire summer of heat and moisture transpired. What a summer. The only time I have used my sprinkler system in the last month was Friday, as we have a lawn service that takes care of all of the applications of fertilizer, pesticides, weed control, grubs, etc and that had to be watered in.

#48
Tom

Posted 04 August 2018 - 10:08 AM

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UHI in full effect in Chitown...while the western burbs are in the mid.upper 80's, the urban areas are roasting 5-10 degrees higher!  Current temp/dew at ORD 95F/61F...the low dew's are making the heat bearable.



#49
Bryan1117

Posted 04 August 2018 - 10:24 AM

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Had a welcome round of showers pass through this morning here in Omaha... had about .35 in my rain gauge. Clouds are keeping temperatures in check today, only 79 degrees right now. Not too bad out at all!



#50
Stacsh

Posted 04 August 2018 - 10:51 AM

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92° feels like the hottest day of the year with no wind
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