I haven't had the time to post much in this thread since last week. It's been a hectic period trying to balance work, life and time for some relaxation. This may be a long post so here we go...
To begin, the heat is coming back...the so-called "death ridge", which has been a common theme since May, until recently, will rear its ugly head across parts of the central CONUS. Although, I do not see it shift as far east as it did back in June and early July. The ridge should be transient across the eastern ag belt/GL's region later this week into the weekend, focusing more across the Plains and the inter-mountain west as we progress into Week 2. I feel that the Week of 15th we circle back to the amplified west coast ridge pattern which should cool the Plains states back down.
Firstly, there is a pop in the EPO allowing for an "inside slider" riding down the NW NAMER coastline allowing to pump the ridge to the east. This has happened in this year's pattern BUT it did not last. Instead, what we will likely see is a transitional period out of the cooler weather for about a week before the pattern re-aligns again by the end of the following week or the Week of the 12th I think ORD has a better chance of some more 90's which may be a bust on my part, however, if there are clouds/storms near by over the weekend it could inhibit the higher temps. Dry grounds don't help. Near the GL's, watch for a sneaky Canadian HP to slide down out of Canada next week as a stout eastern Canada ridge builds in.
The Euro has a known bias of keeping troughs along the west coast, while the GFS/CFSv2 tend to handle the pattern somewhat better. The waters are blow torching in the NE PAC and this will certainly start becoming a player this month, more like the 2nd half. Models tend to under play the meaningful impact of the warmth of the waters.
The sky high +PNA pattern causing the major heat out in the west won't go away anytime soon, although, some cooling will take place in the PAC NW later this week. The strength of this ridge in the west pushes its way into the central CONUS...but how long will it last???
We finally may have a -AO/-NAO pattern in tandem, however, I'm not going to hold my breath. Maybe a neutral NAO may be more in line with how things evolve towards the middle of the month.
The reason behind why I think the central Plains bake and folks farther east nasso much, is directly related to the blocky pattern showing up across eastern Canada and the +PNA pattern. Typically, this causes NW Flow so I'm agreeing with the wetter pattern Week 2 across the eastern ag belt. A shift from the cooler/wetter Plains, towards a hotter and drier pattern makes sense....allowing more much needed rainfall towards the MW/GL's region. I must say, the one positive from all the dryness around here is that it has dwindled the Mosquito population.
I'll dive into the second half of the month later today or sometime this week.