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12/26 - 12-28 Winter Storm

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#51
Money

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:22 PM

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Icon with the low in Mexico again.


Looks slower and colder so far through 90

#52
LNK_Weather

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:30 PM

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I can definitely see dry air being a major issue with this one.

2019 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 0 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 2 (Last: 5/5/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 0 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 1 (Last: 4/10/2019)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 6/21/2019)

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 4/11/2019 @ 9:44 PM CDT

 


#53
Money

Posted 22 December 2018 - 07:59 PM

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Gfs is way north

#54
Money

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:01 PM

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Looks like SPS area even gets into some mixing this run

#55
Money

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:08 PM

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Gem takes the low into central NE

#56
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:11 PM

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Wow. Yeah as of now looking dismal for Omaha lincoln folks

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#57
Stormhunter87

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:34 PM

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CMC has some wrap around bands but yeah doesn't look good. I still think thermals are going to become something to watch. But oh well the people up north need some snow love too.

#58
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2018 - 08:36 PM

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Brief period of rain now on the GEM as well. Still manage 12” on the GEM and 10” on the GFS but the NW trend isn’t good.

#59
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2018 - 09:11 PM

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0z GEFS ensembles showing a lot less spread this run. Here’s the mean.

Attached Files



#60
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2018 - 09:15 PM

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FV3 also now showing thermal issues here for a short while.

#61
St Paul Storm

Posted 22 December 2018 - 10:50 PM

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Euro definitely didn’t go NW like a few of the others tonight. 1.2” precip (snow) over the metro down to Rochester.
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#62
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 22 December 2018 - 10:51 PM

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Definitely am liking the tick southeast. Guess everything helps right?


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#63
james1976

Posted 22 December 2018 - 11:44 PM

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I'd ride the Euro even tho its moreless on its own

#64
Tom

Posted 23 December 2018 - 03:13 AM

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Major differences in the 00z Euro last night as the ULL continues to dig deeper into the 4 corners region.  This run it takes the ULL into Amarillo, TX at 1:00pm Thursday instead of SW Kansas like in previous runs.  Not only that, but we are seeing a different look which the ICON first flashed yesterday at both 18z and 00z sending 1 wave out ahead of the main system digging deep into TX and then ejects almost straight N up into the MW then GL's.  This is trending to be quite a massive storm and the 00z Euro is suggesting a Plains Blizzard with wind gusts topping 40-45 mph across KS/NE.

 

Nice bullseye for MSP....



#65
bud2380

Posted 23 December 2018 - 04:45 AM

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Hard to believe this storm is still about 120 hours out on the 00z runs. We’ve been talking about it forever. Obviously we’re seeing a slower onset with the Euro which seems to allow the high pressure more time to build in from the north and accounts for the further south placement on the 00z run. The NWS has stated repeatedly that these types of systems often are ejected from the SW too soon, so perhaps we’ll see an even further shift south. I wouldn’t mind seeing more parts of Iowa get some snow. I have no shot this far south though. But typically this is where the Euro starts to lock in SLP placement. I’m interested to see the 12z run.
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#66
GDR

Posted 23 December 2018 - 06:21 AM

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Tom needs to get the magnet out!!
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#67
St Paul Storm

Posted 23 December 2018 - 06:38 AM

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GFS, it’s shiny new upgrade and now the ICON show rain as the main precip type for a while which would significantly reduce snow accums. Glad the Euro went the other direction but it’s on it’s own.

#68
St Paul Storm

Posted 23 December 2018 - 07:50 AM

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Turning into a pretty small snow event here based on today’s runs so far. C NE up to W MN will do well. Looks like a rainy mess here. The 540 line is way north.

Edit: of course now that I say that the GEM goes a la Euro with placement of the low and is a good hit. Still much faster than the Euro though.

#69
bud2380

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:07 AM

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The 12z GFS has the SLP in Clinton, IA on Thursday at 6pm. The 00z Euro has the SLP in south central Kansas at 6pm Thursday. The model spread has seemingly gotten worse with every run. They aren’t even in the same ballpark anymore. I’d stick with the Euro personally.
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#70
Tom

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:14 AM

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Turning into a pretty small snow event here based on today’s runs so far. C NE up to W MN will do well. Looks like a rainy mess here. The 540 line is way north.

Edit: of course now that I say that the GEM goes a la Euro with placement of the low and is a good hit. Still much faster than the Euro though.

Ya, 12z GFS is to fast IMO...should be a slower ejection out into the S Plains...



#71
CentralNebWeather

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:43 AM

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Just got home from church. 12z Icon, yes please. Will dive into the model runs in depth now.

#72
CentralNebWeather

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:48 AM

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Ya, 12z GFS is to fast IMO...should be a slower ejection out into the S Plains...


I agree Tom.

#73
CentralNebWeather

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:51 AM

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12z Canadian. Holy Cow.Attached File  7BBEAA0C-A2FF-41E2-8140-74408C5950CA.png   165.06KB   3 downloads
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#74
St Paul Storm

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:54 AM

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12z Canadian. Holy Cow.attachicon.gif7BBEAA0C-A2FF-41E2-8140-74408C5950CA.png


Great run for us for sure.

#75
CentralNebWeather

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:56 AM

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Great run for us for sure.


Yeah, that would work great for both of us.
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#76
Money

Posted 23 December 2018 - 09:18 AM

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Temps still look pretty awful on ggem for the twin cities area

34-36 when the snow is falling.

#77
jaster220

Posted 23 December 2018 - 10:41 AM

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Temps still look pretty awful on ggem for the twin cities area

34-36 when the snow is falling.

 

Another glass half empty buzz-kill post. You sure got a lock on those in this sub :lol:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#78
Tom

Posted 23 December 2018 - 11:06 AM

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12z Euro still crushes places in NE into MN but marginal temps in the low 30's across S/C MN may lower ratios.  Reminds me of the conditions we had here during the Nov Blizzard.  Prob a very wet snow which, if happens, will freeze into a glacier.  

Edit: This storm has copious moisture with it...nearly 1.0- 2.5" qpf from NE/NW IA/MN


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#79
CentralNebWeather

Posted 23 December 2018 - 11:11 AM

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12z Euro still crushes places in NE into MN but marginal temps in the low 30's across S/C MN may lower ratios. Reminds me of the conditions we had here during the Nov Blizzard. Prob a very wet snow which, if happens, will freeze into a glacier.
Edit: This storm has copious moisture with it...nearly 1.0- 2.5" qpf from NE/NW IA/MN


I am on the line. 0-16” over 30 miles. I officially would be 8-10” on this run. Was well over a foot on 0z Euro. As I’ve said, this line will continue moving back and forth over the next 3 days of runs imo.
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#80
St Paul Storm

Posted 23 December 2018 - 11:38 AM

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12z Euro still crushes places in NE into MN but marginal temps in the low 30's across S/C MN may lower ratios.  Reminds me of the conditions we had here during the Nov Blizzard.  Prob a very wet snow which, if happens, will freeze into a glacier.  

Edit: This storm has copious moisture with it...nearly 1.0- 2.5" qpf from NE/NW IA/MN


I’ll take iffy thermals if it means a potential big dog. Thanks for posting the map, Tom.
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#81
St Paul Storm

Posted 23 December 2018 - 02:40 PM

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MPX:
The 12Z GFS continues to be the fastest
in progressing the system while the 12Z Euro remains almost half a
day slower as it develops a vertically stacked low. The 12Z CMC &
FV3 GFS split the difference but generally side towards the slower
and more organized 12Z Euro run. The GEFS ensemble mean is actually
slower and more in line with the CMC/FV3/Euro solutions, suggesting
the current GFS may be a fast outlier at the moment.
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#82
CentralNebWeather

Posted 23 December 2018 - 02:43 PM

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MPX:
The 12Z GFS continues to be the fastest
in progressing the system while the 12Z Euro remains almost half a
day slower as it develops a vertically stacked low. The 12Z CMC &
FV3 GFS split the difference but generally side towards the slower
and more organized 12Z Euro run. The GEFS ensemble mean is actually
slower and more in line with the CMC/FV3/Euro solutions, suggesting
the current GFS may be a fast outlier at the moment.


Great write up. My weather office with very little discussions and scenarios lately. I get more information on the forum.
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#83
St Paul Storm

Posted 23 December 2018 - 03:08 PM

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18z FV3 has rain all the way up to Duluth. Lol.

#84
CentralNebWeather

Posted 23 December 2018 - 07:45 PM

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0z Icon still looking about the same.Attached File  8930B932-91BF-442C-AA24-719545D0C7AF.png   183.48KB   0 downloads

#85
jaster220

Posted 23 December 2018 - 07:53 PM

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18z FV3 has rain all the way up to Duluth. Lol.

 

0z NAM's gone grinchy as well. Removed the Christmas snow apparently due to lack of cold air, then throws the rain far north for the large system

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.9"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.4 Apr: 0.5 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#86
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:00 PM

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Wow gfs looking pretty good here!

2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#87
Stormhunter87

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:02 PM

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Wow gfs looking pretty good here!


I was going to say some interesting wrap around on the GFS. Not the best run but still.

#88
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:06 PM

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Not the best? Its been the best from it ive seen for us in 5 days!
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2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#89
Stormhunter87

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:24 PM

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Not the best? Its been the best from it ive seen for us in 5 days!


True but I was hoping for it to pick up on more thermals. But then again models aren't the best at doing that.

#90
Stormhunter87

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:26 PM

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CMC still going way more rain not as much wrap around.

#91
Niko

Posted 23 December 2018 - 08:27 PM

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0z NAM's gone grinchy as well. Removed the Christmas snow apparently due to lack of cold air, then throws the rain far north for the large system

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

:lol: Gotta laugh at this Winter. 


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#92
Stormhunter87

Posted 23 December 2018 - 09:08 PM

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Fv3 going weird again.

#93
Stormgeek

Posted 23 December 2018 - 09:14 PM

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00z GFS is an eye sore. Yikes.

#94
CentralNebWeather

Posted 23 December 2018 - 09:17 PM

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Fv3 going weird again.


I thought the same thing. They all are having some issues and strange jumping around of the low imo. I really have no clue what will happen and I don’t see much confidence in the mets as I have read various discos from this region.
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#95
Stormhunter87

Posted 23 December 2018 - 09:24 PM

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I thought the same thing. They all are having some issues and strange jumping around of the low imo. I really have no clue what will happen and I don’t see much confidence in the mets as I have read various discos from this region.


I'm noticing that. I believe that there is a ton of moisture involved, but thermals are messing with the models. Time will tell I guess. That new year's storm has disappeared too.

#96
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 23 December 2018 - 11:14 PM

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Never seen a more sad looking storm thread lol. EURO went even more north tonight while GFS went south.


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#97
Tom

Posted 24 December 2018 - 04:37 AM

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00z EPS trended back NW with its snow shield across all of NE leaving many without any chance of snow except for CentralNeb and Gabel...MN posters still looking good but the farther south you are, not so much.



#98
Stormhunter87

Posted 24 December 2018 - 04:39 AM

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Sadly looks like it's lossing steam. Although GFS has the new year's storm showing back up.

#99
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 04:49 AM

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00z EPS trended back NW with its snow shield across all of NE leaving many without any chance of snow except for CentralNeb and Gabel...MN posters still looking good but the farther south you are, not so much.

.

Yea, the dreaded NW trend is what I was thinking when I was in the bullseye Saturday. Oh well, it will produce all types of precipitation here.

#100
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 December 2018 - 04:57 AM

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Local Mets with first initial snowfall maps out. My area 2-5”. Just a little Northwest you start seeing 6-8” then a little farther northwest 8-12”. All going to depend on where the line is and what side of it you’re on. Local ABC met thinks just east of the Tri-Cities of Central Nebraska won’t see a flake. Starting to warn drivers of big problems if heading west across Nebraska Wednesday into Thursday.