January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Grizzcoat]

Very nice trend on the models this morning, most are showing the storm on the 12th amd the 6z GFS has some very cold air.  The LRC looks to be right on schedule for the middle of the month.

Not buying the snow as far S as N Arkansas (in 120 hours or so)  in this warm pattern we have been in. Maybe in 2 weeks or so - but I do not believe the atmosphere is conducive to produce the amount of snow shown on the 06Z GFS in S.MO and N.AR. (but even the 00ZEuro shows it to a lesser coverage/amount to be honest). Time will tell.   Heck- I don't even think it's conducive here in C.IA and even the Twin Cities was missed with this recent round.  Just my .02.

[Tom]

Good Morning all, after what has been an exciting season of Football here in Chicago, it abruptly ended last night by a missed field goal.  You can't make this up how many times he has hit the goal posts this season.  Till next season....

 

In other better news, models are starting to trend a bit better with the southern wave of energy late this week.  It's nice to see the 00z Euro bring a healthier swath of precip farther north.  The GFS was the first to jump on this idea as well as the FV3.  The 00z Ukie actually breaks out precip in KS/KC/MO/IL with a deeper connection of moisture.  Overall, I like the trends...both GEFS/EPS snow mean showing those in MO/IA/IL/MI/OH are in the general area of potential snowfall with this late week system.

[Tom]

Very nice trend on the models this morning, most are showing the storm on the 12th amd the 6z GFS has some very cold air.  The LRC looks to be right on schedule for the middle of the month.

Trends are looking up among the ensemble members in your area and around the eastern portion of our sub.  I like the fact that the models seem to be pointing at a juicier southern wave and transporting moisture farther north.

[Clinton]

Trends are looking up among the ensemble members in your area and around the eastern portion of our sub.  I like the fact that the models seem to be pointing at a juicier southern wave and transporting moisture farther north.

Funny thing is the models struggled with this part of the pattern in the last cycle, not even showing a storm until about 4 days in advance.  This will be an example for how the LRC can forecast weather in advance.

[Tom]

Funny thing is the models struggled with this part of the pattern in the last cycle, not even showing a storm until about 4 days in advance.  This will be an example for how the LRC can forecast weather in advance.

Ya, I agree...just a few days ago, the Euro had it so far south and east and now nearly every ensemble member is showing a healthy southern wave.  Nice to see models trending better as we get closer to the potential system.  Both 00z/06z GEFS really like your region of MO and points north and east.

[Snowshoe]

What a mess this morning. There's about an inch of semisolid liquid on the driveway. Currently pouring rain and mid 30s. Absolute worst weather imaginable.

[Tom]

I think we can all agree it's been a depressing wx pattern for winter wx enthusiasts in this sub and pretty much everyone east of the Rockies.  While the west enjoys being inundated with heavy mtn snows, it won't be long before we finally break out of this pattern.  Is the pattern going to finally flip back to Winter???  I know I was to fast on the pattern change, but this time I think its working its way, albeit slowly, as mother nature has her way of showing who's boss.  I have used this LR tool in the past and figured it out during the '16/'17 season and I should have paid more attention to it.  Let me dive in to what I'm seeing....

 

One place I like to look for troughs/ridges is near the Sea of Okhotsk as this translates into the North American pattern across western Canada about 6-7 days later.  We have seen a constant trough across this region for what seems like forever.  What I had been counting on is for the -NAO blocking to counter-influence the pattern as we opened January and be able to seed more cold air into the pattern but that hasn't happened...yet...so, what we have seen instead is a dominant +EPO and troughs continuing to pound western Canada flooding the nation with warmth...but, there is a change in the pattern across the Sea of Okhotsk in the near future as you can see by the surface pressure animation below.  Instead of a storms tracking across that region now, you will see that by Day 4-5 it is replaced by HP which will eventually translate, IMO, into a NW NAMER ridge and the EPO finally trend towards neutral by the 14th/15th and eventually entirely (-) by the 19th/20th.

 

Before we reach the period when the EPO finally flips, there will be more storms to track and the period that has had my eye has been between the 15th-18th and again around the 19th-21st.  Both of which, have had strong storm systems in the LRC cycle and BSR.  I think one of them may end up being a big wound up storm across the Plains and points East.  

 

If that is not enough evidence to get you out of the winter blues, I'm not sure what else I can say or provide, but needless to say, we will have Ol' Man Winter return and when it does, it will stick around for a while.

[westMJim]

We are now  more than one third into the 2018/19 meteorological winter season.  And while may be not what winter lovers wanted one has to say this has been a historic start to winter. So far here at Grand Rapids there has only been 4 inches of total snow fall. The most on the ground at any one time has only been one inch. The mean temperature is above 32 the warmest it has been since December 1^st has been 53 and the coldest has been just 13. The last 28 days have been above average and 29 of the 37 days have been above average.  There has only been one day where the temperature has not reached 30 and only 6 days at 32 or colder

[Niko]

A little snow fell and whiten up the ground w temps holding at 34F. Rain will win eventually and melt everything away. Much colder air coming by midweek.

[Niko]

Hoping the late week system materializes. NOAA mentions the possibility for snow by the weekend. Not sure why others have MBY cloudy. Guess they are not buying it yet.

[Iowawx]

I’ve gotten a decent 0.67” of rain so far overnight and into this morning. There is another band of showers moving in now that could push total to 0.75”.

 

If we are in a pattern with little to no snow, then at least we are still getting a good amount of rain.

[gosaints]

Hoping the late week system materializes. NOAA mentions the possibility for snow by the weekend. Not sure why others have MBY cloudy. Guess they are not buying it yet.

Dusting

[Clinton]

GFS continues to develop a nice system for the 1th and 12th time frame.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019010712&fh=144

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ncus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019010712&fh=120

[gimmesnow]

Tom, no offense man, but your relentless optimism and constant optimism for pattern changes isn't helping. My ski hill is closed today, and this winter has been so bad they might not even have enough snow to keep going through the week until they can blow more. Fortunately we're getting a cold snap for a day and two nights where they can fix it, but it's going to cost them a lot of money that they didn't make because the holiday season had such bad weather.

 

This winter is already a bust. There's lots of winter related companies in SE Wisconsin (and the sub's entire region) that depend heavily on the holiday break to literally make or break their financial season. A pattern change in February where we get two or four weeks of snow and winter isn't helping anyone except for some enthusiasts that enjoy watching weather. Ski resorts, bars and pubs that depend on snowmobilers, winter festivals, etc.

 

I'm not going to be surprised when they are trucking in snow for the Lake Geneva Winterfest sculpting this year and it only stays for a few days. In fact, the bay on my lake is half way thawed, usually we get a full freeze over my lake by the first of the year. It's nearly open, like I could take a boat out if this keeps up.

 

Even if things turn around now, what? The lake will be frozen for a few weeks so all those ice fishermen can come and have a short season? And all those bars and places around here that depend on those guys showing up and supporting them are all sitting empty.

 

This winter is a complete bust, and given how the last three have been, there's going to be a lot of causalities with ski resorts, bar, pubs, etc. Specially in the SE Wisconsin region where so much of the winter activities depend on people from Chicago, Milwaukee, and Madison.

 

I'd like to remind everyone that Wilmot shut down after one really bad holiday season and had to sell out to Vail Resorts. We lost Little Switzerland a few years ago too (though it did reopen). I think the few hills north of Milwaukee are in some serous trouble and we'll see t least two SE Wisconsin resorts up for sale after this year thanks to this winter.

[Niko]

Dusting

We will be lucky to see a dusting. Looks like this storm will bypass my area. The EC is in for a nice ride w this one. Hopefully, it changes. The +EPO is really mucking things up.

[Niko]

Currently light rain and 35F. UGH! Oh, and a little snow on the ground which is about to get washed away. The story of this Winter continues.

[Tom]

Tom, no offense man, but your relentless optimism and constant optimism for pattern changes isn't helping. My ski hill is closed today, and this winter has been so bad they might not even have enough snow to keep going through the week until they can blow more. Fortunately we're getting a cold snap for a day and two nights where they can fix it, but it's going to cost them a lot of money that they didn't make because the holiday season had such bad weather.

 

This winter is already a bust. There's lots of winter related companies in SE Wisconsin (and the sub's entire region) that depend heavily on the holiday break to literally make or break their financial season. A pattern change in February where we get two or four weeks of snow and winter isn't helping anyone except for some enthusiasts that enjoy watching weather. Ski resorts, bars and pubs that depend on snowmobilers, winter festivals, etc.

 

I'm not going to be surprised when they are trucking in snow for the Lake Geneva Winterfest sculpting this year and it only stays for a few days. In fact, the bay on my lake is half way thawed, usually we get a full freeze over my lake by the first of the year. It's nearly open, like I could take a boat out if this keeps up.

 

Even if things turn around now, what? The lake will be frozen for a few weeks so all those ice fishermen can come and have a short season? And all those bars and places around here that depend on those guys showing up and supporting them are all sitting empty.

 

This winter is a complete bust, and given how the last three have been, there's going to be a lot of causalities with ski resorts, bar, pubs, etc. Specially in the SE Wisconsin region where so much of the winter activities depend on people from Chicago, Milwaukee, and Madison.

 

I'd like to remind everyone that Wilmot shut down after one really bad holiday season and had to sell out to Vail Resorts. We lost Little Switzerland a few years ago too (though it did reopen). I think the few hills north of Milwaukee are in some serous trouble and we'll see t least two SE Wisconsin resorts up for sale after this year thanks to this winter.

 

I'm really hoping it turns around for your sake and for the economically depressed businesses.  I was watching the news the other day about how Lake Geneva's ice sculpture festival is taking a beating.  It's terrible to hear how much mother nature can effect local businesses, esp those who rely on the snow.

[Tony]

Looks like a little light snow this weekend followed by more rain in the extended. Time is starting to run out for most of us.

[Tom]

12z GEFS continues to trend better for a lot of us in IA/MO and points east for at least a plowable snow event (2-3"+?)....there are some decent hits and I like the fact that they are trending juicier.  If the 12z Euro jumps on board, I think odds are in favor that there will be a system to track for the weekend.

[Tom]

Looks like a little light snow this weekend followed by more rain in the extended. Time is starting to run out for most of us.

Huh?  We aren't even at mid winter yet bud...lots on the table this month and I'm standing by it.  I feel I let some down on here but I won't be defeated a second time.  I really see all the players coming together mid/late month and into Feb, heck, March may be another big month the way late starting Nino seasons behave along with with post Strat warming events.

[Niko]

Currently its cloudy and 34F.

[Tom]

12z Ukie still showing the system and nails MO into C IL/IN with a lot of moisture....not sure about snowfall but it seems similar to the GFS....

[Tony]

Huh?  We aren't even at mid winter yet bud...lots on the table this month and I'm standing by it.  I feel I let some down on here but I won't be defeated a second time.  I really see all the players coming together mid/late month and into Feb, heck, March may be another big month the way late starting Nino seasons behave along with with post Strat warming events.

March is a tough month as it's hard for snow to stick around especially once we get into the middle of the month but yes, we still have February but only if we get a pattern change and we need it to last for more than a few days.

[Clinton]

The 12z FV3 is almost to good to be true for me. 

[Tom]

March is a tough month as it's hard for snow to stick around especially once we get into the middle of the month but yes, we still have February but only if we get a pattern change and we need it to last for more than a few days.

I agree with you that its best to enjoy snow OTG during the winter months instead of Spring for a lot of reasons.  I usually would like to see Winter hang on till mid March and then slowly transition towards Spring unless you got a foot or more of snow OTG and can keep it around so long temps are cold enough.  What if we can achieve that this Jan/Feb and into March???  The most active Exhibit of the LRC is about to hit us this weekend and last for 2-3 weeks...will nature finally align the pattern I've had in mind since late November???  

[Niko]

The 12z FV3 is almost to good to be true for me. 

[Tom]

The 12z FV3 is almost to good to be true for me. 

We are getting inside 5 days and basically all the models are suggesting a S MW snowstorm into the OV.  I'm hoping enough moisture gets drawn up north to hit us up here.  Your looking good based off the GEFS ensembles.

[Niko]

Still days away from this system, so models will have some sort of discrepancy w one another.

[Clinton]

We are getting inside 5 days and basically all the models are suggesting a S MW snowstorm into the OV.  I'm hoping enough moisture gets drawn up north to hit us up here.  Your looking good based off the GEFS ensembleI

I haven't had any measurable snow since late Nov.  Looking to the future, it could turn brutally cold around the 22nd.

[Grizzcoat]

March is a tough month as it's hard for snow to stick around especially once we get into the middle of the month but yes, we still have February but only if we get a pattern change and we need it to last for more than a few days.

I would agree with this. Even by Mid - FEB here in C.IA things are running downhill fast with increasing sun angle and length of day that most snowfalls are mainly gone in a few says ; even with temps below 32F. Sun angle is HUGE for snow to stick. The best winters are with long lived snowpack that occurs early on, not something that comes and goes. Remember by mid FEB- the the sun angle and length of day are the same to mid- OCT. Anything later is = Sept. I like my chances with a deep snowcover/ severe winter happening in DEC,,, not in FEB. Another chance at a "good" winter is busting as I write. 

[Tony]

I agree with you that its best to enjoy snow OTG during the winter months instead of Spring for a lot of reasons.  I usually would like to see Winter hang on till mid March and then slowly transition towards Spring unless you got a foot or more of snow OTG and can keep it around so long temps are cold enough.  What if we can achieve that this Jan/Feb and into March???  The most active Exhibit of the LRC is about to hit us this weekend and last for 2-3 weeks...will nature finally align the pattern I've had in mind since late November???  

I hope the LRC comes to fruition for all of us.

[jaster220]

The 12z FV3 is almost to good to be true for me. 

 

Da Yoopers be gettin' hammered today! ..could this be you in a few days time?

 

[Clinton]

Da Yoopers be gettin' hammered today! ..could this be you in a few days time?

 

20190107 APX WSWarning graphic.PNG

I hope so, it will make for an interesting Chiefs game.

[Grizzcoat]

The Arrowhead of MN (of which I visit to really winter camp) and the UP of Michigan - I disrgard for my weather down here in the corn. I don't even like to look at it (unless I have trip planned)-- it's just too depressing.   It's like not only a totally differnt climate- but different planet in the winter time. The summers are more even. The winters just leave us out to the S more than should be. 

[jaster220]

Huh?  We aren't even at mid winter yet bud...lots on the table this month and I'm standing by it.  I feel I let some down on here but I won't be defeated a second time.  I really see all the players coming together mid/late month and into Feb, heck, March may be another big month the way late starting Nino seasons behave along with with post Strat warming events.

 

 

 

Much of the aforementioned excerpt from the winter outlook still appears on track, however this will depend on the precise nuances of the actual split. Should the larger piece of the vortex end up on the Eurasian side of the globe after the split, then these temperature departures may verify along with a an active pattern of winter storms. However should the main lobe of the vortex end up on the Canadian side of the globe, then we could see brutally cold weather coupled with severe winter storms later in the month. Considering the propensity for guidance to rush large scale changes, the safe assumption is that the SSW should take place by December 30th. Twenty days from this date would place the severe winter period to commence on approximately January 20 and beyond, as specified in the mid November winter outlook.

[Tom]

I would agree with this. Even by Mid - FEB here in C.IA things are running downhill fast with increasing sun angle and length of day that most snowfalls are mainly gone in a few says ; even with temps below 32F. Sun angle is HUGE for snow to stick. The best winters are with long lived snowpack that occurs early on, not something that comes and goes. Remember by mid FEB- the the sun angle and length of day are the same to mid- OCT. Anything later is = Sept. I like my chances with a deep snowcover/ severe winter happening in DEC,,, not in FEB. Another chance at a "good" winter is busting as I write. 

Especially considering if the snow is fluffy and compacts due to the sun angle.  I recall back  in March '14, even with temps in the mid 20's, I had like 10" of snow OTG and saw it slowly fading while the sun began creeping higher above the horizon.  Late Feb isn't that bad actually unless you have temps hovering around freezing.  You can certainly begin to "feel" the suns strength later in Feb and into March as the cold doesn't feel as bad.

 

Edit:  Oh ya, as for your comment about severe Winter happening in Dec rather than in Feb, I completely concur with you.  

[Tom]

12z Euro went a bit north now and trending better. Will post maps a bit later.

[Hawkeye]

12z euro snow precip

 

Of course, much of that falls overnight Friday night, so nobody can see it.  It's amazing how difficult it is to get good accumulating snow during daylight around here.

 

[Yerf]

 

[Hawkeye]

My rain total today is 0.63".