March 2015 PNW Discussion

[Deweydog]

You be all about that dry weather and ridging!

If that's the way it's gonna be.

[TT-SEA]

If that's the way it's gonna be.

 

 

Spring of 1934 was pretty nice.   Everyone is talking about February matching that year.   Maybe this is just going to continue all spring.   

[FroYoBro]

This weather is awesome. Keep up the sun. Thanks.

 

 

Sincerely,

 

an informed citizen that understands the electoral college. 

[Jesse]

18z sure was a butt ugly run.

 

Lots of warm rain in the long range.

[Deweydog]

18z sure was a butt ugly run.

 

Lots of warm rain in the long range.

I bet it won't verify!!!

[Jesse]

I bet it won't verify!!!

I bet too!!

[Deweydog]

I bet too!!

Cool! Let's see who else does!

[Front Ranger]

Bush was declared the winner by the media too early, starting the whole ball of wax. That whole thing was a bi-partisan (and not in a good way) cluster **** which after the fact in objective analysis shows Gore most likely was the victor.

 

[Jesse]

Cool! Let's see who else does!

 

Oops! Looks like it had pretty good ensemble support!

[Deweydog]

If only...

 

Jesse's gorge experience would have been wall to wall blizzards and sharp September troughs.

[richard mann]

hey look. Al Gore. 

 

— It must be a slow day.

 

Up, with the 18z. Whatever it's showing. .....

[MossMan]

I have a friend that lives near Dallas, Texas and he woke up to 3" of snow on the ground and a temp of 21 degrees. He currently has more snow on the ground than Snoqualmie Summit. I drove over the pass yesterday and even the patches of snow that were on the slopes were mostly gone now.

[TT-SEA]

Starting to think it might be a spectacular weekend.    Jet trail mania out there today...

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian at 240 hours.    Persistence reigns!

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[Jesse]

Looking like things may turn wet and mild toward the middle of the month.

[HighlandExperience]

Looking like things may turn wet and mild toward the middle of the month.

the year without a winter.

[TT-SEA]

the year without a winter.

The GEM and ECMWF do not look very wet. Mild yes.

[MossMan]

The GEM and ECMWF do not look very wet. Mild yes.

I have been loving these dry and mild days so more of the same works for me. My wife, daughter, dogs and I have been able to go out almost every evening for a sunset walk. I am even tempted to uncover the boat and start getting it ready for spring. We might as well enjoy it since we cannot control what is going to happen, mountains are scary bare but I'm sure by next winter we will bounce right back and have a normal snow pack.

[Jesse]

March is starting to look like a continuation of the same general pattern we've been stuck in since about July.

[Dan the Weatherman]

It is really strange to be stuck in essentially the same pattern for as long it has done so this season. There is usually more variability in the weather patterns overall during a given season, especially in the winter.

[TT-SEA]

This March is suddenly shaping up to be a little league dream. Too bad my boys are out of baseball. This would be surprisingly pleasant. I wonder if April will be payback time.

[richard mann]

It is really strange to be stuck in essentially the same pattern for as long ..... this season. There is usually more variability in the weather patterns overall during a given season, especially in the winter.

Strange:  52

Why:  2.5

 

Cliff Mass was supposed to have been going to get into this idea more. But has apparently bailed, or been busy with other ideas. This or either squeaked his thinking into a Blog post subsequent to and since his having focused on this question more initially a few weeks ago.

 

http://theweatherfor...we-are/?p=69730

[Jesse]

Starting to think this month could have a legitimate shot at top warm territory, in light of recent runs.

Lots of warm days and mild nights coming up starting early next week.

The balmy drizzle front on Wednesday is CLASSIC 2014-15!!

[TT-SEA]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_03060407_mar6a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_03060408_mar6b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_03060410_mar6c.png

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Pretty amazing that we may not see any sub-freezing 850mb temps in the foreseeable future in light of what was being projected by some of the models a week ago. On the plus side, now that we're out of inversion season this sort of ridging is actually enjoyable when it comes to outdoor activities.

[HighlandExperience]

Pretty amazing that we may not see any sub-freezing 850mb temps in the foreseeable future in light of what was being projected by some of the models a week ago. On the plus side, now that we're out of inversion season this sort of ridging is actually enjoyable when it comes to outdoor activities.

Default lately always seems to go back to warmth no matter what the models show long range.

[Jesse]

Default lately always seems to go back to warmth no matter what the models show long range.

Pretty much. Warmest case scenario is the way to go.

[Phil]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_03060407_mar6a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_03060408_mar6b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_03060410_mar6c.png

I've already resigned myself to the fact that we're in for another non-spring. This'll make it three years in a row..payback for 2012?

[epiceast]

The trough is so WATERED down at the end of 10 day frame. I bet it will be a ridge in a week.

[Phil]

As I feared:

 

This pattern change is being overplayed because we're missing the elephant in the room. I suspect we'll be back in a +PNA by the middle portion of March..

 

Same story all winter..we get a burp of hi-freq WPAC forcing superimposed on underlying QBO/ENSO driven mass transport.

 

What results is repetitive NPAC wave-breaking, and a tank in the EPO along with an attempted bombardment of the PV. The initial PNA response cannot sustain on its own given the pull of the forementioned underlying inertial forcings unless our partner in crime (the dominant, fully coupled PV) is compromised. Why?

 

The PV is dominating high latitude mass transport, export-returns, and wave guidance. It's fully coupled to the NAM and the Hudson Bay vortex. The PV works like a giant tornado with multiple vortices at the base. Destroy the vortex aloft, you stop both the development and subsequent poleward progression of the vortices below. Hence you tank the NAM, reverse the mass transport gradients, and pass the hot-potato into the hands of the higher frequency tropical forcings which will then begin battle with the lower frequency, ENSO dominated forcings/resonances. That's how you change a low frequency pattern.

 

Look at January 2013. Before the SSW/mass transport breakdown that occurred around the turn of that New Year, we'd been in a persistent regimen since February of 2011, essentily the opposite of the one we're in now. We all know how that changed, with a total transition in the span of a few weeks. The dominant circulations had done a 180 by January 20th.

 

We need to break down the PV before we're going to get a true, large scale pattern change. Only then will the ENSO trend back negative, along with the PNA and PDO..

[Phil]

Anyone want to guess what's wrong with this pattern?

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/0ud0VV/800.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/phvqcj/800.jpg

[Dan the Weatherman]

Anyone want to guess what's wrong with this pattern?

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/0ud0VV/800.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/phvqcj/800.jpg

A ridge over the Aleutians usually teleconnects to a trough over the West Coast, as opposed to a ridge as being depicted in the model output above. That is way too much ridging at the same time too close together!

[Jesse]

Anyone want to guess what's wrong with this pattern?

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/0ud0VV/800.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/phvqcj/800.jpg

Global warming?

[Phil]

A ridge over the Aleutians usually teleconnects to a trough over the West Coast, as opposed to a ridge as being depicted in the model output above. That is way too much ridging at the same time too close together!

Problem is actually the domination of the fully coupled NAO/Hudson Bay Vortex w/ the stratospheric PV. They're so intertwined that they're resisting wave bombardment/tropical forcing.

[TT-SEA]

Problem is actually the domination of the fully coupled NAO/Hudson Bay Vortex w/ the stratospheric PV. They're so intertwined that they're resisting wave bombardment/tropical forcing.

 

 

So warm all spring here??  

[Phil]

So warm all spring here??

Looks like it, at least until the final warming, when the stratospheric connection will break/change.

[richard mann]

I've already resigned myself to the fact that we're in for another non-spring. This'll make it three years in a row..payback for 2012?

 

".. Anyone want to take a guess as to whether I might mean [the] "we" here in Maryland, or "we" here in the country, or perhaps even that, with my having posted this here in the main PNW section, being "you" there in the PNW, and with "me" imagining that I am. ?"

[richard mann]

Anyone want to guess what's wrong with this pattern?

 

Is there an "un-subscribe" option connected to these types of questionnaires. ? 

[richard mann]

Default lately always seems to go back to warmth no matter what the models show long range.

 

Count one more impression expressed more in line with the idea of pondering the how and why, added to those posted working to make sense of the patterning predominating this winter back into Fall.  @

 

— My own view is that there's a cyclical element to colder air's movement and distribution. Patterns repeat as a direct result. And the basic configuration, or timing, of colder air main movements types (more latitudinal or that more primary into the mid-latitudes, set with and against more longitudinal, more where considering cold's more variable pace east.) having lent to the more basic character of the patterning this warmer into colder season, has been lousy. Or certainly where considering its resultant benefits more practical, e.g. main "water supply", "snowpack", more basic rainfall, ect., leastwise. 

[richard mann]

Looks like it, at least until the final warming, when the stratospheric connection will break/change.

 

"... All, considered in the light of course, that at the same time we're, "cooling" .. at the more "planetary" level.  !!

 

(Soon you'll be able to foresee some of, all of .. this more on your own.)"  $$