Black Hole Posted August 18, 2022 Report Share Posted August 18, 2022 Too bad I didn't notice this thread sooner, I've been watching all this closely for a while. My take is that we are in the early stages of a substantial global market downturn that will affect all sectors. The causes are numerous, but the biggest factors seem to be keeping rates too low for too long (particularly as inflation ramped up) and too much stimulus resulting in demand exceeding supply. Then when the FED decided to play hardball they hiked rates much too fast, the effects of that are still coming. We saw a justifiable market correction for the first half of the year, but what about the rally now? Any indicator you can look at shows an unhealthy economy being drug down by intense inflation, because people are spending money on energy, food, and shelter instead of things. Earnings are coming down, and companies are going to start going under the next few months. When the unemployment numbers jump the FED will pivot but it will be too late and the damage will be done. In that sense, I expect the market to go down below its previous lows within the next 3 months with housing correcting further and inflation slowing down. Due to supply constraints inflation may not go down as fast as last time. For housing specifically, there are some factors that make this less bad than the last crash and others that make it worse. I don't think housing can go down too much until people start losing jobs, and we really aren't into the thick of that yet...but I could see an eventual decline of 10-20%. 2 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 18, 2022 Report Share Posted August 18, 2022 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 19, 2022 Report Share Posted August 19, 2022 If you wanna know the real intentions behind BBB and the so-called Inflation Reduction Act, I recommend you read up on the Great Leap Forward. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 19, 2022 Report Share Posted August 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Andie said: A heavenly 73*. High of 94*. Dealing with far more normal temps. Rain still in forecast of the next week. Hoping to see my share. What's that gotta do with the economy? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 19, 2022 Report Share Posted August 19, 2022 Right. Has more to do with no coffee yet this morning!!! Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted August 21, 2022 Report Share Posted August 21, 2022 The Stock market is very volatile right now, the signals are still very mixed. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 24, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 24, 2022 The doomer ranks continue to grow: https://archive.ph/QMoWn https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/24/home-prices-fall-for-the-first-time-in-three-years-biggest-drop-since-2011.html Now, here's the thing: even if we see a housing correction of 20% in many markets over the next 6-12 months, which I think is very possible, most people who bought prior to 2015 will still be up 75%+, and most who bought from 2015-2019 will still be up 25%-50%. These things are natural. Just as the irrational exuberance of the last few years has led to a massive crash in crypto and big drop in stocks this year (with no convincing sign we're out of a longer bear market yet), the same is coming for the housing market - it just moves a lot slower than crypto or equities, and doesn't usually see anywhere near as much volatility in prices. However, given that the 30%+ appreciation in 2 years from 2019-2021 was pretty much unprecedented for the housing market, it's not unreasonable to imagine we may see a faster decline in home values than most previous corrections. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted August 26, 2022 Report Share Posted August 26, 2022 Besides the foreclosure backlog, there will be additional foreclosures from job losses down the road assuming this recession has some real teeth. That's the problem with the FED tightening into a recession, you get a bit of a snowball effect. I'd say in 6-12 months it'll likely be obvious that we are in a deep recession and the FED will throw the money printers back on. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 26, 2022 Report Share Posted August 26, 2022 On 8/24/2022 at 6:23 PM, Front Ranger said: The doomer ranks continue to grow: https://archive.ph/QMoWn https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/24/home-prices-fall-for-the-first-time-in-three-years-biggest-drop-since-2011.html Now, here's the thing: even if we see a housing correction of 20% in many markets over the next 6-12 months, which I think is very possible, most people who bought prior to 2015 will still be up 75%+, and most who bought from 2015-2019 will still be up 25%-50%. These things are natural. Just as the irrational exuberance of the last few years has led to a massive crash in crypto and big drop in stocks this year (with no convincing sign we're out of a longer bear market yet), the same is coming for the housing market - it just moves a lot slower than crypto or equities, and doesn't usually see anywhere near as much volatility in prices. However, given that the 30%+ appreciation in 2 years from 2019-2021 was pretty much unprecedented for the housing market, it's not unreasonable to imagine we may see a faster decline in home values than most previous corrections. It’s going to get very bumpy for some folks and I’m sorry for that. A strong working class is the backbone of this country. I’m grateful that our house will be paid for the end of 2023. It’s a good small manageable place built in 2008 almost paid for tucked back on a golf course in an outlying city. Construction all around us but we’re in a good position. I feel so bad for those out of work, overextended, or challenged in some way. They didn’t ask for it and now struggle. The recession of ‘08 will likely be seen as less drastic as this one. We have to get manufacturing back on US soil. We can’t just be a nation of consumers. The Covid shutdown wrecked people’s incentive to work and be productive. Crime is up as people are out of work or out of incentive/hope. We need to restart this engine. And soon. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 26, 2022 Report Share Posted August 26, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted August 26, 2022 Report Share Posted August 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Why was the weather weaponized? To cause a panic? Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted August 26, 2022 Report Share Posted August 26, 2022 9 hours ago, Andie said: It’s going to get very bumpy for some folks and I’m sorry for that. A strong working class is the backbone of this country. I’m grateful that our house will be paid for the end of 2023. It’s a good small manageable place built in 2008 almost paid for tucked back on a golf course in an outlying city. Construction all around us but we’re in a good position. I feel so bad for those out of work, overextended, or challenged in some way. They didn’t ask for it and now struggle. The recession of ‘08 will likely be seen as less drastic as this one. We have to get manufacturing back on US soil. We can’t just be a nation of consumers. The Covid shutdown wrecked people’s incentive to work and be productive. Crime is up as people are out of work or out of incentive/hope. We need to restart this engine. And soon. Sadly, there is a trend called "Silent Layoffs". Where they cut jobs without telling anyone much of anything. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 26, 2022 Report Share Posted August 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Why was the weather weaponized? To cause a panic? They'll probably blame inflation on climate change next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 26, 2022 Report Share Posted August 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Why was the weather weaponized? To cause a panic? It says the extra rainfall in the Philippines will damage crops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 30, 2022 Looks pretty clear at this point that the mid summer stock rally was just your typical bear market relief rally, and lower lows are likely to come. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 31, 2022 Report Share Posted August 31, 2022 I bought my home for 187K, closed on it 11 years ago today. Redfin has it at 610K, Zillow 488K. Either way things could drop quite a bit and we would still be in good shape. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 31, 2022 Report Share Posted August 31, 2022 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I bought my home for 187K, closed on it 11 years ago today. Redfin has it at 610K, Zillow 488K. Either way things could drop quite a bit and we would still be in good shape. That’s funny. It’s the opposite for us where Redfin is pretty much in line with market value while Zillow is inflated about 75k. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2022 Per Redfin's data, Denver median sales price has dropped from a peak of $617k earlier this year to $573k. That's a 7.8% drop so far. https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/ 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2022 In real terms (accounting for inflation), the S&P is now down close to 30% YTD, and the NASDAQ over 35%. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 2, 2022 Report Share Posted October 2, 2022 I'm surprised that no one has noticed the DOW absolutely SINKING! It closed at 28,725 on Friday Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 5, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 5, 2022 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 5, 2022 Report Share Posted October 5, 2022 39 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Why are they assuming no recession? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 We are IN a recession. Not sure why there is denial out there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Why are they assuming no recession? Well, if you read the follow up comments below the post, that's the first scenario. The second scenario assumes a recession and then expected home value drops go to 20% nationally, and 25-30% in especially overvalued markets. This is the most aggressive "official/expert" forecast I've seen so far. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 25 minutes ago, roadtonowhere08 said: We are IN a recession. Not sure why there is denial out there. Your guy says we are not. But technically yes. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Your guy says we are not. But technically yes. I don't have a guy. But whatever makes you sleep at night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 6, 2022 Report Share Posted October 6, 2022 23 hours ago, roadtonowhere08 said: I don't have a guy. But whatever makes you sleep at night. Uh huh Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted October 7, 2022 Report Share Posted October 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Uh huh Like I said, you do you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 9, 2022 Report Share Posted October 9, 2022 The September 2022 Inflation rate is coming out soon for here. Germany's Inflation rate is above 10%, could this preview that is coming? Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 11, 2022 Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 I read a report on coming inflation too. conservatively 8-8.5%. Nauseating. It’s going to be rough for all of us. Stock up on anything you use regularly and can’t live without. Might start with toilet paper Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 11, 2022 Report Share Posted October 11, 2022 Eggs are above $5 in the Shawnee Walmart. 2 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 14, 2022 Report Share Posted October 14, 2022 On 10/10/2022 at 9:11 PM, Andie said: I read a report on coming inflation too. conservatively 8-8.5%. Nauseating. It’s going to be rough for all of us. Stock up on anything you use regularly and can’t live without. Might start with toilet paper The September 2022 Inflation is higher than expected at 8.2%, CPI has also unexpectedly increased by .4%. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 15, 2022 Report Share Posted October 15, 2022 On 10/11/2022 at 11:08 AM, Iceresistance said: Eggs are above $5 in the Shawnee Walmart. Glad I have chickens and ducks. We have been getting a couple dozen eggs a day with all this sunny/warm weather. Unless we put a light on them though they won't lay much during the winter. But for now us and our family and friends are flush with eggs. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 Just found out that my grandmother invests in the stock market, and I would like to have someone to keep a sharp eye on it. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 43 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Just found out that my grandmother invests in the stock market, and I would like to have someone to keep a sharp eye on it. You mean you do not trust her? If you convince her to put it in an S&P index fund like VOO or VOOG and leave it there, it is about as foolproof as possible. And if she is sitting on cash waiting, it is a GREAT time to get in. People run into trouble when they pick stocks (since that requires research) or they delude themselves into thinking they can be a stock trader. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 16, 2022 Report Share Posted October 16, 2022 44 minutes ago, roadtonowhere08 said: You mean you do not trust her? If you convince her to put it in an S&P index fund like VOO or VOOG and leave it there, it is about as foolproof as possible. And if she is sitting on cash waiting, it is a GREAT time to get in. People run into trouble when they pick stocks (since that requires research) or they delude themselves into thinking they can be a stock trader. Not that. It's something else, how can you make money without doing stupid stuff? Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted October 17, 2022 Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Not that. It's something else, how can you make money without doing stupid stuff? Not sure I follow. Elaborate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 17, 2022 Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 Just now, roadtonowhere08 said: Not sure I follow. Elaborate. She is investing in the Dow Jones, and she lost a LOT of money during the selloff Friday. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted October 17, 2022 Report Share Posted October 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: She is investing in the Dow Jones, and she lost a LOT of money during the selloff Friday. Ah gotcha. Okay, investing in the Dow is not necessarily bad, but the S&P is a better index with better returns. It's more modern with more of a modern balance of stocks. As far as the selloffs go, it is the nature of the beast. They will happen. Some perspective: Investing in stocks only works if you give them time as the image above shows. If your grandmother has been at this a while and has stayed the course, she has probably made a bundle of money. If you are worried about the last selloff and my last sentence is the case, she'll be fine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2022 We've had to lay off two people on my company team so far. The worst is yet ahead. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/home-prices-housing-crash-fall-jeremy-siegel-paul-krugman-bubble-2022-10 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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