May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[jakeinthevalley]

Another great day of razor clamming at Gearhart this morning. Calm and upper 40's, good enough for shorts and t shirt.

4 hours total of driving, 20 minutes to limits, 1 hour to clean them and now some yard work before a feast this evening.

Despite some problems, gotta love the PNW!!

[Phil]

New Canadian seasonal released today. Actually depicts a troughy June/July in the West followed by a more ridgy look in August. Though the SW states still end up roasting.

Also a solid -PNA through all of DJF 2022/23.  

[snow_wizard]

No doubt we just finished a region wide cold April.  Monthly departures in Western WA and OR look to be commonly in the -2.5 to -4.5 range.  Looks like WA was about a degree cooler than OR on the departures.   Just wish we would get more NW flow and less gloom.  No doubt the Dec - Apr average is reasonably chilly for many places.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

Another great day of razor clamming at Gearhart this morning. Calm and upper 40's, good enough for shorts and t shirt.

4 hours total of driving, 20 minutes to limits, 1 hour to clean them and now some yard work before a feast this evening.

Despite some problems, gotta love the PNW!!

People in many parts of the country would say upper 40s is far from shorts weather.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt we just finished a region wide cold April.  Monthly departures in Western WA and OR look to be commonly in the -2.5 to -4.5 range.  Looks like WA was about a degree cooler than OR on the departures.   Just wish we would get more NW flow and less gloom.  No doubt the Dec - Apr average is reasonably chilly for many places.

DEC -2.1

JAN -0.1

FEB -0.5

MAR +1.3

APR -2.8

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

DEC -2.1

JAN -0.1

FEB -0.5

MAR +1.3

APR -2.8

I think we will be a cold mode on average until a Nino emerges now.  We finally managed to flip it.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we will be a cold mode on average until a Nino emerges now.  We finally managed to flip it.

Ehhh we will see. Summer almost always manages to be warmer than normal nowadays. Would sure like to see a 2011 or 2012 summer again. 

[Phil]

CanSIPS precipitation departures for August-October are wild.

Gets the winter storm track going very early. Sometime in August. And continues right through October.

Interesting since this model almost always seems to project a dry August in the NW.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we will be a cold mode on average until a Nino emerges now.  We finally managed to flip it.

Even cold periods have warm intraseasonal periods. May 2008 had plenty of ridging in the West.

[snow drift]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt we just finished a region wide cold April.  Monthly departures in Western WA and OR look to be commonly in the -2.5 to -4.5 range.  Looks like WA was about a degree cooler than OR on the departures.   Just wish we would get more NW flow and less gloom.  No doubt the Dec - Apr average is reasonably chilly for many places.

NW flow is gloomy here. All that unstable air leads to clouds and convection. We need NE flow or a strong ridge of high pressure.

[snow drift]

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we will be a cold mode on average until a Nino emerges now.  We finally managed to flip it.

The future hasn't happened yet. We'll see. A cool la niña spring is pretty common. There's no guarantee it continues throughout the summer.

[jakeinthevalley]

36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

People in many parts of the country would say upper 40s is far from shorts weather.

When your constantly moving and we are little more than two weeks removed from snow on the ground, it felt fine (even ankle deep in 50 degree ocean water.

Meanwhile, 65 in Salem and the weeds are coming out easily, roots and all

[TT-SEA]

62 in North Bend now... 60 at SEA.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 57, mostly cloudy today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the ensembles we may have some drier/warmer weather around the 10-15th. Looking further ahead, troughing likely returns the last 10-14 days of the month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is always good to see.

Cascades in Lane County-
Including the cities of McKenzie Pass and Willamette Pass
229 PM PDT Sun May 1 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM PDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10
  inches above 4500 ft. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Cascades in Lane County.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 5 PM PDT Monday.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Sunny and 63 here, pretty nice day. Everything is lush, green and blooming out there. All in all it’s been a lovely spring so far, hoping May picks up where April left off 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

April Stats

Avg Max: 49.8 (-7.3)

Avg Min: 34.9 (-0.2)

Mean: 42.2 (-3.8)

Precip: 10.54" (+4.34)

Snow: 18.0"

Days with measurable precip: 24

Days with measurable snowfall: 6

Greatest daily precip: 1.16" (4th and 30th)

Greatest daily snowfall: 5.8" (11th)

Max: 75 (7th)

Min: 28 (15th)

Sub-freezing lows: 9

Sub-40 highs: 5

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Apparently SLE hit 88 on this day in 2014. Don't remember it. 

[FroYoBro]

Nice day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Nice day.

Going to rain tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

3rd consecutive nice Sunday...

[TT-SEA]

High clouds already coming in though...

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS stronger with the ridge next week than the 12Z run.   At least it's consistently showing up now.   Might get a short warm spell.

[TT-SEA]

Today is the 4th day since April 8th without precip in North Bend.   Pretty amazing run of wet days that will go for at least another week (to get to a month).   Its usually good to get this out of the way early in the warm season.   It never keeps up this pace.    Even in 2010... 30 days was as long as it could go but that was mid May through mid June. 

Nice thing about this stetch... 3 of the 4 dry days have fallen on Sunday.    

[snow drift]

Cloudy here ☁

[snow drift]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS stronger with the ridge next week than the 12Z run.   At least it's consistently showing up now.   Might get a short warm spell.

It would be nice to have a little bit of variety, right?

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Sunny and 63 here, pretty nice day. Everything is lush, green and blooming out there. All in all it’s been a lovely spring so far, hoping May picks up where April left off 

We're still waiting on some of our trees. Maybe we'll have leaves on them by June. 

[snow drift]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today is the 4th day since April 8th without precip in North Bend.   Pretty amazing run of wet days that will go for at least another week (to get to a month).   Its usually good to get this out of the way early in the warm season.   It never keeps up this pace.    Even in 2010... 30 days was as long as it could go but that was mid May through mid June. 

Nice thing about this stetch... 3 of the 4 dry days have fallen on Sunday.    

It's cloudier today than yesterday. It rained yesterday, but it hasn't rained today.

[Phil]

Speaking of 2001 (and 2008), they both come up twice as GFS 500mb analogs.

Interesting to see the -ENSO lean despite the pattern. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

24 minutes ago, snow drift said:

We're still waiting on some of our trees. Maybe we'll have leaves on them by June. 

We were due for a cool spring. It’s been about a decade. 

[TT-SEA]

62 for a high at SEA.    Looks like it got up to 66 in North Bend.    We still have almost full sun out here but thicker clouds are moving into Seattle now.

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We were due for a cool spring. It’s been about a decade. 

Nobody expects it to be warm and sunny all the time. I think most people want some living things around. It's nice to see flowers and green leaves. Am I crazy or something? We could really use a warm and sunny day every now and then.

[TacomaWaWx]

62/47 today. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Winter was supposed to have its last stand in February. 

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Winter was supposed to have its last stand in February. 

Afraid not and you better enjoy it.

[snow drift]

6 o'clock rolls around and the sun finally makes an appearance. It's really nice to see the sun.

[Cascadia_Wx]

44 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Nobody expects it to be warm and sunny all the time. I think most people want some living things around. It's nice to see flowers and green leaves. Am I crazy or something? We could really use a warm and sunny day every now and then.

The stoicism of last summer is such a distant memory now

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is a look at the foliage today. We getting there...

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here is a look at the foliage today. We getting there...

Not sure if that pic is representative of your entire area... but the trees are all leafed out up on Rattlesnake Ridge well above us.   The west end of the ridge as viewed from North Bend is mostly deciduous trees which is the result of being clear cut in the 1980s.    Those deciduous trees probably go up to 2K in elevation and I noticed earlier this week that the entire canopy is now green up there.