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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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  • The Blob changed the title to May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

Booya! 47F and showery.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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The last couple runs of the EPS actually get rid of the permanent western trough in the mid and long range.    Have not see that on the EPS for at least a month.     No idea if it will hold.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1651363200-1651363200-1652659200-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • TT-SEA pinned this topic

If the euros right we will be 90% of normal precip for May 1/3 of the way through the month. Overall within the next 10 days the La Niña spring looks to continue. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Starting May out with low clouds and 48 degrees after a low of 47

Will be interesting to see if we can string together two cool and wet spring months in a row. Think it’s been since at least 2017. Guessing May see’s more big warm periods mixed in and ends up closer to average temperature wise 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The last couple runs of the EPS actually get rid of the permanent western trough in the mid and long range.    Have not see that on the EPS for at least a month.     No idea if it will hold.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1651363200-1651363200-1652659200-10.gif

Some of that is a blending of shortwaves in quasi-zonal flow. The NPAC anticyclone will nose poleward but probably pinch off and retrograde offshore relatively quickly after it does.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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A perfect Sunday morning! Frogs, birds, and a single engine plane in the distance…Ahhhh April is over!! 

14E13FB6-DA6A-4AD7-B4E5-79D02822A1C3.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1999 twice and 2001 twice. Both within that 3+ year Niña event.

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A lot of model runs lately have been hinting at the idea of a massive ridge moving over us around the 10th or so and sticking around for awhile

Guidance likes to trap wavenumber 6-7-8 patterns at this time of year. Unless we revert to +NAO I’d be very skeptical.

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Suns out now…53 degrees. Hopefully the ridging is just model noise and we stick with the general pattern we’ve been in recently. I like the 1-2 days of showers then 1-2 days of sun routine. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Phil said:

1999 twice and 2001 twice. Both within that 3+ year Niña event.

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

Well so far this triple nina period performed better for winter weather than that triple nina did. Atleast for snow in the lowlands. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Anyone see how wet the 06z was?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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52 minutes ago, Phil said:

1999 twice and 2001 twice. Both within that 3+ year Niña event.

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

Bozeman saw over 14" of snow on June 13th 2001... Getting the sense that we've got a few more big snowstorms left in us this year.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

1999 twice and 2001 twice. Both within that 3+ year Niña event.

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

May of 2001 was really nice here.    It rained on only 5 days and there were many days in the 70s with a peak of 87.   

Also... the 4th of July in 2001 was right in the middle of an 18-day stretch with a high of 81.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

May of 2001 was really nice here.    It rained on only 5 days and there were many days in the 70s with a peak of 87.   

Also... the 4th of July in 2001 was right in the middle of an 18-day stretch with a high of 81.   👍

May 2001 had a pretty hot stretch for us before an abrupt switch back to cool/wet in June.

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

May 2001 had a pretty hot stretch for us before an abrupt switch back to cool/wet in June.

Yeah... June 2001 was pretty bad.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... June 2001 was pretty bad.

Nah it was quite nice. Particularly considering that 2000-01 had been a disastrous winter for the region and there were serious drought issues at the time. Still were some bad fires in Okanogan County that summer but the fire season likely would have been much worse had the JJA period gone a bit more to your liking.

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5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The last couple runs of the EPS actually get rid of the permanent western trough in the mid and long range.    Have not see that on the EPS for at least a month.     No idea if it will hold.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1651363200-1651363200-1652659200-10.gif

We need la niña to collapse. 

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Looks like a deep trough next weekend. KGEG might be able to sneak a 70 degree high this week. It has not hit 70 since October 5th, 2021. I have a feeling summer will start late and leave early this year. I bet you that all the transplants are regretting their move to Spokane. This is a classic Spokane spring. Keep that winter coat handy and make sure the heat is on.

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31 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Send some of that sunshine over here. We could use some.

Sadly it’s gone now. ☹️

C717B487-2F47-4678-BCA3-7473A25D779F.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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This is tricked out stuff. D5 on 12z ECMWF we go from a relatively stable field to waves breaking all over the Western Hemisphere.

All those smooth looking ensemble means are hiding what’s actually happening. 😵💫😵💫

25D470AD-7232-4E0D-9299-3F977CA2E944.gif

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

Bozeman saw over 14" of snow on June 13th 2001... Getting the sense that we've got a few more big snowstorms left in us this year.

Haha, oh yeah. You’re not done yet.

Watch late this month into early June. Some high end potential there between intraseasonal cycles.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is tricked out stuff. D5 on 12z ECMWF we go from a relatively stable field to waves breaking all over the Western Hemisphere.

All those smooth looking ensemble means are hiding what’s actually happening. 😵💫😵💫

25D470AD-7232-4E0D-9299-3F977CA2E944.gif

Looks like a much less troughy pattern overall though.    12Z EPS and control run agree as well.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And yes Phil... I realize any ridge will only last for about 15 minutes and it's all transitory.    Those are your standard responses every year.   I don't expect any ridging this year.   Literally anything we get is a bonus.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like a much less troughy pattern overall though.    12Z EPS and control run agree as well.   

Could be. At least for a time.

But be careful with ensemble means in an amplified high wavenumber pattern. That messiness will be smoothed over.

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For instance, the 12z EPS gives a naked eye impression of a smoother, lower wavenumber pattern as the various solutions diverge.

However the actual solution (whatever it is) will be much messier than this. Cut the λ in half, at least.

DCB7A1DD-3F45-434A-BF52-4E07D706124F.gif

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could be. At least for a time.

But be careful with ensemble means in an amplified high wavenumber pattern. That messiness will be smoothed over.

I say that all the time... well aware.    But overall the EPS mean looks less troughy than it has for a long time so there should be some improvement ahead. 

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50 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Sadly it’s gone now. ☹️

C717B487-2F47-4678-BCA3-7473A25D779F.jpeg

Going the other way here as the low clouds start moving off to the NW ahead of next trough.   It's been getting more sunny as the day goes on.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The bout of constructive interference triggering this massive EWB may be tied into the poleward displacement of the NPAC jet during week-2.

This is crazy stuff. There’s an ~ 40kt difference between IO westerlies and Pacific trades on the 12z EPS. Going to be some crazy upward motion over the maritime continent.

6686D207-A0EC-4A37-9C44-5D2B037446DE.png

 

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