May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[The Blob]

Happy 1st of May.

[Deweydog]

There May be two many threads.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Booya! 47F and showery.

[TT-SEA]

The last couple runs of the EPS actually get rid of the permanent western trough in the mid and long range.    Have not see that on the EPS for at least a month.     No idea if it will hold.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Which one is the right one?

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 47 and cloudy to start May off. 

[TacomaWaWx]

If the euros right we will be 90% of normal precip for May 1/3 of the way through the month. Overall within the next 10 days the La Niña spring looks to continue. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Starting May out with low clouds and 48 degrees after a low of 47

Will be interesting to see if we can string together two cool and wet spring months in a row. Think it’s been since at least 2017. Guessing May see’s more big warm periods mixed in and ends up closer to average temperature wise 

[Mr Marine Layer]

Anyone else have this calendar? 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The last couple runs of the EPS actually get rid of the permanent western trough in the mid and long range.    Have not see that on the EPS for at least a month.     No idea if it will hold.

Some of that is a blending of shortwaves in quasi-zonal flow. The NPAC anticyclone will nose poleward but probably pinch off and retrograde offshore relatively quickly after it does.

[MossMan]

A perfect Sunday morning! Frogs, birds, and a single engine plane in the distance…Ahhhh April is over!! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

A lot of model runs lately have been hinting at the idea of a massive ridge moving over us around the 10th or so and sticking around for awhile

[Phil]

1999 twice and 2001 twice. Both within that 3+ year Niña event.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A lot of model runs lately have been hinting at the idea of a massive ridge moving over us around the 10th or so and sticking around for awhile

Guidance likes to trap wavenumber 6-7-8 patterns at this time of year. Unless we revert to +NAO I’d be very skeptical.

[TacomaWaWx]

Suns out now…53 degrees. Hopefully the ridging is just model noise and we stick with the general pattern we’ve been in recently. I like the 1-2 days of showers then 1-2 days of sun routine. 

[TacomaWaWx]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

1999 twice and 2001 twice. Both within that 3+ year Niña event.

Well so far this triple nina period performed better for winter weather than that triple nina did. Atleast for snow in the lowlands. 

[Phil]

Mid-60s with thick overcast and booming thunder in the dinstance.

If only all of summer could be like this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anyone see how wet the 06z was?!

[Kayla]

52 minutes ago, Phil said:

1999 twice and 2001 twice. Both within that 3+ year Niña event.

Bozeman saw over 14" of snow on June 13th 2001... Getting the sense that we've got a few more big snowstorms left in us this year.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS also showing a ridge building in the 7-10 day period like the operational run.  

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

1999 twice and 2001 twice. Both within that 3+ year Niña event.

May of 2001 was really nice here.    It rained on only 5 days and there were many days in the 70s with a peak of 87.   

Also... the 4th of July in 2001 was right in the middle of an 18-day stretch with a high of 81.   

[BLI snowman]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

May of 2001 was really nice here.    It rained on only 5 days and there were many days in the 70s with a peak of 87.   

Also... the 4th of July in 2001 was right in the middle of an 18-day stretch with a high of 81.   

May 2001 had a pretty hot stretch for us before an abrupt switch back to cool/wet in June.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

May 2001 had a pretty hot stretch for us before an abrupt switch back to cool/wet in June.

Yeah... June 2001 was pretty bad.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... June 2001 was pretty bad.

Nah it was quite nice. Particularly considering that 2000-01 had been a disastrous winter for the region and there were serious drought issues at the time. Still were some bad fires in Okanogan County that summer but the fire season likely would have been much worse had the JJA period gone a bit more to your liking.

[snow drift]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The last couple runs of the EPS actually get rid of the permanent western trough in the mid and long range.    Have not see that on the EPS for at least a month.     No idea if it will hold.

We need la niña to collapse. 

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Bozeman saw over 14" of snow on June 13th 2001... Getting the sense that we've got a few more big snowstorms left in us this year.

Yuck

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

A perfect Sunday morning! Frogs, birds, and a single engine plane in the distance…Ahhhh April is over!! 

Send some of that sunshine over here. We could use some.

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Mid-60s with thick overcast and booming thunder in the dinstance.

If only all of summer could be like this.

That's a warm spring day here

[snow drift]

Looks like a deep trough next weekend. KGEG might be able to sneak a 70 degree high this week. It has not hit 70 since October 5th, 2021. I have a feeling summer will start late and leave early this year. I bet you that all the transplants are regretting their move to Spokane. This is a classic Spokane spring. Keep that winter coat handy and make sure the heat is on.

[MossMan]

31 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Send some of that sunshine over here. We could use some.

Sadly it’s gone now.

[Phil]

This is tricked out stuff. D5 on 12z ECMWF we go from a relatively stable field to waves breaking all over the Western Hemisphere.

All those smooth looking ensemble means are hiding what’s actually happening. ‍‍

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Kayla said:

Bozeman saw over 14" of snow on June 13th 2001... Getting the sense that we've got a few more big snowstorms left in us this year.

Haha, oh yeah. You’re not done yet.

Watch late this month into early June. Some high end potential there between intraseasonal cycles.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is tricked out stuff. D5 on 12z ECMWF we go from a relatively stable field to waves breaking all over the Western Hemisphere.

All those smooth looking ensemble means are hiding what’s actually happening. ‍‍

Looks like a much less troughy pattern overall though.    12Z EPS and control run agree as well.   

[TT-SEA]

And yes Phil... I realize any ridge will only last for about 15 minutes and it's all transitory.    Those are your standard responses every year.   I don't expect any ridging this year.   Literally anything we get is a bonus.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like a much less troughy pattern overall though.    12Z EPS and control run agree as well.   

Could be. At least for a time.

But be careful with ensemble means in an amplified high wavenumber pattern. That messiness will be smoothed over.

[Phil]

For instance, the 12z EPS gives a naked eye impression of a smoother, lower wavenumber pattern as the various solutions diverge.

However the actual solution (whatever it is) will be much messier than this. Cut the λ in half, at least.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could be. At least for a time.

But be careful with ensemble means in an amplified high wavenumber pattern. That messiness will be smoothed over.

I say that all the time... well aware.    But overall the EPS mean looks less troughy than it has for a long time so there should be some improvement ahead. 

[TT-SEA]

50 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Sadly it’s gone now.

Going the other way here as the low clouds start moving off to the NW ahead of next trough.   It's been getting more sunny as the day goes on.

[Phil]

The bout of constructive interference triggering this massive EWB may be tied into the poleward displacement of the NPAC jet during week-2.

This is crazy stuff. There’s an ~ 40kt difference between IO westerlies and Pacific trades on the 12z EPS. Going to be some crazy upward motion over the maritime continent.

 

[AlTahoe]

pretty impressive how expansive the driest Jan-april was for the west. 

 

[jakeinthevalley]

Another great day of razor clamming at Gearhart this morning. Calm and upper 40's, good enough for shorts and t shirt.

4 hours total of driving, 20 minutes to limits, 1 hour to clean them and now some yard work before a feast this evening.

Despite some problems, gotta love the PNW!!

[Phil]

New Canadian seasonal released today. Actually depicts a troughy June/July in the West followed by a more ridgy look in August. Though the SW states still end up roasting.

Also a solid -PNA through all of DJF 2022/23.  

[snow_wizard]

No doubt we just finished a region wide cold April.  Monthly departures in Western WA and OR look to be commonly in the -2.5 to -4.5 range.  Looks like WA was about a degree cooler than OR on the departures.   Just wish we would get more NW flow and less gloom.  No doubt the Dec - Apr average is reasonably chilly for many places.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

Another great day of razor clamming at Gearhart this morning. Calm and upper 40's, good enough for shorts and t shirt.

4 hours total of driving, 20 minutes to limits, 1 hour to clean them and now some yard work before a feast this evening.

Despite some problems, gotta love the PNW!!

People in many parts of the country would say upper 40s is far from shorts weather.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt we just finished a region wide cold April.  Monthly departures in Western WA and OR look to be commonly in the -2.5 to -4.5 range.  Looks like WA was about a degree cooler than OR on the departures.   Just wish we would get more NW flow and less gloom.  No doubt the Dec - Apr average is reasonably chilly for many places.

DEC -2.1

JAN -0.1

FEB -0.5

MAR +1.3

APR -2.8

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

DEC -2.1

JAN -0.1

FEB -0.5

MAR +1.3

APR -2.8

I think we will be a cold mode on average until a Nino emerges now.  We finally managed to flip it.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we will be a cold mode on average until a Nino emerges now.  We finally managed to flip it.

Ehhh we will see. Summer almost always manages to be warmer than normal nowadays. Would sure like to see a 2011 or 2012 summer again. 

[Phil]

CanSIPS precipitation departures for August-October are wild.

Gets the winter storm track going very early. Sometime in August. And continues right through October.

Interesting since this model almost always seems to project a dry August in the NW.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we will be a cold mode on average until a Nino emerges now.  We finally managed to flip it.

Even cold periods have warm intraseasonal periods. May 2008 had plenty of ridging in the West.

[snow drift]

33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt we just finished a region wide cold April.  Monthly departures in Western WA and OR look to be commonly in the -2.5 to -4.5 range.  Looks like WA was about a degree cooler than OR on the departures.   Just wish we would get more NW flow and less gloom.  No doubt the Dec - Apr average is reasonably chilly for many places.

NW flow is gloomy here. All that unstable air leads to clouds and convection. We need NE flow or a strong ridge of high pressure.