Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Ggem is north and much wetter compared to 12z 1008 L near Chicago at hr 84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Ggem is north and much wetter compared to 12z 1008 L near Chicago at hr 84Interesting. Would love to see snowfall map if possible. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Just looking at black and white maps Max at hr 84 is about 25 mm in N IL which is nearly 1 in qpf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 00z GGEM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015111800/gem_asnow_ncus_14.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Wow that is nice. Can we lock that in? Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 UKMET looks like it's on the stronger side. At HR 96 it has a 1002 L in E. MI. Not sure what happens between 72 and 96. Here is the precip map at HR 72 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif 25 MM is about 1 inch QPF. Looks like it has an area of 20-25 MM in Iowa at HR 72. HR 96: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yes please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Is the GGEM known to be wetter than other models? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Thanks for the posts Money. Looks nice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Let's see if the Euro holds it's juice/track on tonight's 00z run. Really surprised there is so much consistency on track 3 days out. GFS seems to be having its medium range problems as far as intensity goes. Is the GGEM known to be wetter than other models?Ya, its usually the one model that spits out wetter solutions. However, UKIE is pretty wet in IA thru HR 72 so has some credence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Holy cow, the GEM is pretty heavy on the snowfall! Gets even crazier when you see the predicted lows over the snow cover Sunday night. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 That map is 10:1 ratios as well. Euro should be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Maxim is pulling his hair out...j/k...Ha! All in fun... I think winds down the lake will effect accumulations for Lake/Cook counties...water temps in the low 50's will certainly keep things warmer lakeside. Having the snow fall at night will help with accumulations. http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 The lake temperature is going to take nose dive this weekend. Should be able to knock off a few degrees by Friday night through upwelling and CAA. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Man, I hope we get something here. The snow dome will literally be over Eastern Nebraska once again if these are to pan out as of now. Hoping for a further south solution, not sure its even possible at this point though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 0z EURO at HR 72 has a 1007 L in OK. 0z GFS at HR 72 had a 1010 L down in Texas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Gonna be another big euro run but might have the swath of snow even farther north than the GGEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 996 L in E. Michigan at HR 96. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Sounds like 12-14 inches (10:1 ratio map) in Southern WI. 1+ QPF SW WI ENE through most of Central/Upper Michigan Looks like a pretty big cutoff to the south and Chicago is on the southern end. 14-15 inch max just to the NW of Milwaukee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 "Another big euro run".. ? I don't remember the euro being that strong at all in past runs, but maybe I'm mixing up my thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Map? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Don't have maps, getting info from American WX. Sounds like this thing explodes much earlier than previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 http://i.imgur.com/eiQVefol.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Holy $#!+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 If it's that wound up, climb tells me this is a Minneapolis special. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Oh that would be nice for those back in my hometown, but not so friendly for me down here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Wide range of solutions yet, but def. potential for someone to see a lot of snow. Fun times ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 If it's that wound up, climb tells me this is a Minneapolis special.lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 No need to laugh, just watch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 No need to laugh, just watch. Highly doubt it. I think the euro is prolly as far north as this thing can go. Probably will end up weaker than euro and stronger than GFS with Chicago/Geos area getting good snows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Seems HPC or WPC is siding with the more robust totals--- Pretty impressive from them. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 From Quad Cities Discussion: SOME CONCERN HOW MUCH MOISTUREDRAW FROM THE SOUTH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AS WELL TO PRODUCE SUCHBIG SNOW TOTALS...BUT IF TENDS CONTINUE THE CWA WILL LOOK TO BE INLINE FOR AT LEAST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SNOW EVENT WITH A CHANCEFOR WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA. WITH ANYKIND OF SNOW COVER...THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR SEEPING DOWN INTO THETROF BASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WOULD MAKE FOR HIGHS SAT ONLYIN THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Wow at the Euro! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Somebody gave the Euro way too many steroids. I'm liking where I sit. Both the 06z GFS and Euro look great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 EURO sniffed out this storms potential a couple days ago, now it seems like other models following suit and this could end up becoming a "Clipper" type system on Steroids. 00z EURO has a tightly packed storm with 20-30mph winds blowing the snow sideways. Seems like the track will be to close for comfort around here, I think IA/N IL/S WI are in the right spot currently (Chicago area questionable). Ground temps/850's marginal in the city, however, any adjust to track this far out is speculation ATM. Euro Ensemble/Control in pretty good agreement... 06z GFS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111806/gfs_asnow_ncus_19.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 06z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 I have a feeling this thing is going to push north like most early storms do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 I have a feeling this thing is going to push north like most early storms do.Unlikely in this setup Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 18, 2015 Report Share Posted November 18, 2015 Here is some past history and some thing to think about with the possibility of a November snow event and how that does not mean a thing for the rest of the winter. November 17,1989Grand Rapids picks up seven inches of snow, bringing accumulations during a three day storm to over a foot. while December 1989 was some what cold and snowy. But then January 1990 was a very warm +7.6° and the coldest it got that January was only +19° and with only 10.6" most of the month was snow free. That may be what we are looking at for this winter ………….maybe Correct, but those were the toasty late 80's when things favored NMI. Us in SMI just snagged a piece of the action with the Nov bliz that dumped up to 2 feet in north central areas of the LP. Then, those same areas got another 2 foot bliz in January when that long thaw came crashing down. I actually was playing tourist in Traverse City area one weekend that January and there was still plenty of snow in the high country, less down at the lake front in town. Basically no snow back home in SEMI, but that was pretty common during that era. The other PDO (+/-) was controlling then and lots of Nino's were ruling the day. Between the early snowstorms (Oct 19th, Nov 15th, and some at the holidays) and the return of winter later in January, I actually got lots of snowmobiling in even in SEMI (Genesee Cnty) and still consider that one of the better seasons of that era for my region. I will say that while we won't likely repeat 2013-14 on the cold when mby had 81% of the days from Dec 8th to March 8th at or below 32*F, I don't think we are looking at 4+ week stretches of boring and warn like last December either. I'm thinking we will bounce up and down until late Dec, and have some really warm spells throughout winter that could/will lead to good chances of big storms brewing up. Should be strong contrasts and great bliz ingredient season with the STJ playing ball. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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