Midwest & Great Lakes November 20-21st Snowstorm

[Geos]

Definitely a narrower band of 6"+.

 

[Money]

It's never winter weather season without drastic model shifts within 2-3 days of an event

[Maxim]

Definitely a narrower band of 6"+.

 

Still not all that bad though.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah I love that run

[GDR]

It looks alright

[WBadgersW]

Jackpot on the 6z. Hopefully the trend North sticks.

 

MKE seems to be leaning towards the EURO.

[MarcusBeier]

Welcome to WINTER 2015/16 everyone! Hope you all enjoyed the warm season and its great to be tracking again =)

 

That being said, i am moving to Florida this week so can we please just let SEMI get nailed right before i go? 

[Tom]

Winter Storm Watches hoisted for parts of S WI/N IL/IA!  First significant Snow of the season on the way...

 

Here is LOT's take...I'll take that for the first snows anyday...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=98123

[Tom]

06z NAM...

 

 

[Tom]

Quad Cities take...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/dvn/WxStory/File.png

[westMJim]

The general idea here in GRR for the weekend snow is for around 3 to 6" Not sure how much of that will accumulate on the ground. Here is a the short write up on today thru the weekend.

 

http://www.weather.gov/crh/weatherstory?sid=grr&embed=#.Vk3WAvmrTIU

 

and the general discussion

 

 SHORT TERM  

(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015  
 
PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINATION OF HOW  
HIGH WINDS WILL GUST LATER TODAY AND TO ASSESS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL  
FALL FROM VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY  
FOR ALL OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. HIGHER RESOLUTION WIND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS WILL  
REACH 45 TO 55 MPH ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE IN THAT TIME FRAME.  
 
FURTHER INLAND A CONSENSUS OF THE MAJORITY OF 00Z GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS THAT WIND GUSTS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 35 TO 44 MPH RANGE BUT  
NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING TO  
THE NE TO NORTHERN OHIO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL  
BRING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR FCST AREA  
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR A SWATH OF 3 TO 6  
INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS OUR FCST AREA FROM EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS  
UP TO AROUND 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL  
FORCING AND DEFORMATION ZONE PROCESSES. GFS GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO  
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH A DEEPER CYCLONE BUT  
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.  
 
MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN  
THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER WITH CUMULATIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS  
SYSTEM AND IS NOW DOWN TO THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE.  
 
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO TEMPS ONLY IN THE  
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND SNOW. HEAVY SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED  
BUT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING 

[Tom]

12z NAM seems like it took a jog south...

 

 

[gosaints]

12z NAM seems like it took a jog south...

For sure.  You could jack pot if temp profiles workout for you.

[Tom]

For sure.  You could jack pot if temp profiles workout for you.

I'm nervous about the temp profiles around here.  Really hoping evaporational/dyanmic cooling works its magic.  Unless there is a big supply of arctic air, these early season snows tend to favor the N/NW burbs with the heaviest snows.  If I get 4" I'll be a happy camper.  Places farther west look to be in the hot spot.

[jaster220]

12z NAM seems like it took a jog south...

 

NAM looking "better" over my way, but if that is storm total, then it has not the dynamics for SMI that many models have been showing since that early Euro run a couple days ago took the SLP over Lk. Erie in the 990's mb range and showed the thumb region of MI with 6-12+  Have the jet dynamics diminished/changed since the thread was started? Some models like the last (4) GEM runs seem to be holding steady that the system stays strong over our way. What do you make of it?

[Tom]

@ Jaster, I'm on my phone so won't have access to those maps. I believe the dynamics are still there. Took a look at the high rez models and they were showing some pretty good banding, even some heavier bands over the lake. Should be interesting to see this unfold if some 1"+/hr snowfall rates occur.

[Geos]

Winter Storm Watches hoisted for parts of S WI/N IL/IA!  First significant Snow of the season on the way...

 

Here is LOT's take...I'll take that for the first snows anyday...

 

 

Need to include more counties imo.

Sounds are looking cold enough for most of Cook and Will County now.

[Geos]

4km NAM has some heavy snowfall and over a wider area.

 

[Jaycee]

Omaha looks like it could be in an all or nothing scenario. This system has an incredibly sharp cutoff, I don't think I'll see a flake. NOAA is actually being rather optimistic imo, saying we have a shot at 1-3", even down here in Lincoln. Seems like it could be one of those "day of" events, but definitely think James and Geos are the winners here.

[NEJeremy]

NAM is definitely trending south and lines up more with the other models especially out here in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. NAM for quite a while had nothing for us here and now is looking like 4 or 5". Jim Flowers has been doing updates on his Facebook page and his concern is temp profiles and how close we are going to be in Omaha. He showed a graphic that had the cut off zone basically right over town where northwest suburbs of Bennington could get 4" where as Offutt AFB could only get 1". I'm on the north part of town so hoping for a good 4-5" myself

[Geos]

Had to post a snowfall showing my local region.

 

10-11" bullseye a few miles from my location.

 

[WBadgersW]

GFS holding steady

[jaster220]

4km NAM has some heavy snowfall and over a wider area.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015111912/nam4km_asnow_ncus_21.png

 

Liking that SW to NE oriented hvy streak in SMI. Basically places mby in the sweet spot. fun times outta nowhere - wild in a good way b4 Thxgvng even!

[Geos]

12z GFS

The further NW now.

[WBadgersW]

So I'm going to get anything from 1"-10". Nice.

[Tony]

_{GFS showing that wind out of the east/southeast really eating away at the qpf as it gets closer to the lake, even to the far western burbs. I wonder how much this will cut into to the totals.}

 

_{Also shows a nice LE signal on these runs which could enhance snowfall rates. Don't really know what to expect with this system as there is alot going on and depending on location will either be a huge hit or a bust. Either way something to track.}

[Madtown]

Going with 4" imby. Too big of bust potential to go higher. Thinking that's what all the nws offices are doing too.

[Iowa2015]

Riding the southern edge depending on what model you believe It's going to be a cash in with 6+ or a near bust With couple inches

[Iowa2015]

Moisture there just going to come down to how quickly we change over to snow

[WBadgersW]

UKMET is in the Northern camp

[Tony]

UKMET is in the Northern camp

Yep...farthest north of any model.

[Madtown]

On amwx people saying toss it. Not sure why?

[WBadgersW]

On amwx people saying toss it. Not sure why?

Probably because its North, but its nothing too unrealistic.The GFS does support the UKMET, just not as far North. Definitely can't say it should be tossed.

[Tony]

If the EURO follows the UKIE then it is onto something otherwise it's on its own and not worth looking at.

[Maxim]

On amwx people saying toss it. Not sure why?

Because it doesn't make sense. The set-up wouldn't support that far of a north track. South is the way to go imo.

[Geos]

Strong lake plume signature on the GEM. Maxim, you could be buried!

 

[Tony]

^Most of the models have been showing a very strong LE so will be interesting to see how it setsup. It could really rev up the totals in certain areas and seems to be far reaching meaning western burbs could be affected.

[jaster220]

12z GFS

The further NW now.

 

quite a bit better for us east of you though..

[Niko]

Definitely a narrower band of 6"+.

 

Geos, I am in the light purple shaded area. Right on the northern tip. Wow, I am shocked. Thats a 6-10 inch total if I am correct.I always knew this storm had potential. Still a couple of days away. This thing can wiggle north and end up here with nothing or get a substantial amounts of snow. Will see how it pans out. What I do know is that some people on this board will get a lot of snow from this system.

[Money]

Ukie/GFS vs NAM/GGEM