Midwest & Great Lakes November 20-21st Snowstorm

[Niko]

Some big time cold coming after this snowstorm. My lows are expected to bottom out in the teens this weekend, Sunday night to be exact and near 20F or colder Saturday night under that fresh snowcover. Brrrrrr!!

[Niko]

quite a bit better for us east of you though..

Jaster220, I think you will do fairly well with this upcoming snowstorm. Get those shovels ready or snowblower.

 

BTW....we might be in the 50s next week. That snow wont stay on the ground too long.

[Money]

RGEM is north of ggem and arw and nmm way north as well

[WBadgersW]

I'm already imaging all of the accidents that are going to happen... First snow of the season and it might be significant

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QWVP2py53o

[WBadgersW]

RGEM is north of ggem and arw and nmm way north as well

 

SREF seems to also favor a Northern track.

[james1976]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_composite.gif

[Geos]

Geos, I am in the light purple shaded area. Right on the northern tip. Wow, I am shocked. Thats a 6-10 inch total if I am correct.I always knew this storm had potential. Still a couple of days away. This thing can wiggle north and end up here with nothing or get a substantial amounts of snow. Will see how it pans out. What I do know is that some people on this board will get a lot of snow from this system.

 

A lot of times the northern edge of a storm is poorly models and you can end up getting better totals due to lower ratios. I suspect the ratios will be fairly low, but if you can manage a couple degrees colder, you'll do better than 10:1.

 

I'm already imaging all of the accidents that are going to happen... First snow of the season and it might be significant

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7QWVP2py53o

 

Remember seeing that video and remember the storm too!

I saw some salt being moved around this morning, so at least there's that. Some people will be idiots though and drive too fast.

[Tony]

SREF seems to also favor a Northern track.

GEFS is south of operational which is telling me south is the way to go on this one.

[FarmerRick]

NAM is definitely trending south and lines up more with the other models especially out here in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. NAM for quite a while had nothing for us here and now is looking like 4 or 5". Jim Flowers has been doing updates on his Facebook page and his concern is temp profiles and how close we are going to be in Omaha. He showed a graphic that had the cut off zone basically right over town where northwest suburbs of Bennington could get 4" where as Offutt AFB could only get 1". I'm on the north part of town so hoping for a good 4-5" myself

 

 

    I'd really like to get my snowmobile out for the first time in about 3 years...  we'll see. 

[Tony]

Ukie/GFS vs NAM/GGEM

Hearing that the EURO has come in the south camp as well.

[Money]

Lol Tony

[Iowa2015]

But But G.D.R said there was no chance for a sothern track storm would correct it's self north track was the only possible outcome.

[GDR]

You ever heard of reverse psychology?

[East Dubzz]

I don't think that works on snowstorms.

[Madtown]

Time to throw in the towel? Or is it just one run? Same pattern as last year it seems. Looks good 3 days out only to slide south and give Wisconsin a dusting. Who knows.

[Andrew NE]

Does anyone have the EURO snowfall maps?

[WBadgersW]

Time to throw in the towel? Or is it just one run? Same pattern as last year it seems. Looks good 3 days out only to slide south and give Wisconsin a dusting. Who knows.

 

It's been the past two years... I think the largest storm I got last year was a 6"er.

 

Wait until tonight, there's still an rather large amount of models that are pointing to an Northern track. NMM, ARW, SREF, and GFS all hammer us, hope is there, but it is fading. Do short range models have a Northern bias or what? 

[Iowa2015]

Yup If you're north especially on the edge This snowstorm heading south Time has come throw in the towel. Now if you're on the southern edge or south prepare now

[Geos]

Does anyone have the EURO snowfall maps?

 

[Geos]

The WPC is not favoring the EURO though.

 

THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED A BIT WEAKER/SUPRESSED WITH
THE WAVE...AWAY FROM THE AGREEMENT SHOWN BY THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF
AND EVEN THE 00Z/12Z CMC. THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOT PREFERRED OVER THE
00Z ECMWF.

 

[jaster220]

Jaster220, I think you will do fairly well with this upcoming snowstorm. Get those shovels ready or snowblower.

 

BTW....we might be in the 50s next week. That snow wont stay on the ground too long.

 

Hey Niko! True, but if we can score a plow-able event, the piles can last quite a bit longer. Makes it feel more like winter anyways. Good Luck over there and thx for the shout out.

[NEJeremy]

http://i.imgur.com/qSbuoTZ.jpg

I'm not seeing any map here

[gosaints]

SREFS seemed to have just taken a appreciable jump to the north

[WBadgersW]

I have to say, SREFS plumes have been consistent. The past three runs had me between 8.6" and 8.8".

[james1976]

Wow, the Euro seems to be the most south out of all the models.

[GDR]

It will adjust to the north yet

[Yerf]

I have a feeling it will bounce back north

[Maxim]

NAM is weaker and further south.

[Maxim]

I have to say, SREFS plumes have been consistent. The past three runs had me between 8.6" and 8.8".

toss them.

[Maxim]

Final call for ORD: 6.0"

looking good

[Money]

Leggo ukie pull out the win

[Madtown]

Wpc still thinking Wisconsin is a go.

[Madtown]

Nws Milwaukee with a video calling for 6 to 8

[FV-Mike]

Winter storm watch extended to DuPage and Cook counties

[Naddan85]

Winter Storm Watch for Omaha! 3-6 inches.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NEZ052&warncounty=NEC055&firewxzone=NEZ052&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NNW%20Omaha%20NE&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=41.2916&lon=-96.0303#.Vk4_OLerTmE

[Grizzcoat]

Somethings never change... Dmx always last to the party-- issuing warnings /advisories

[NEJeremy]

DMX has issued warnings for everywhere north of I-80 it looks like. 5-10"

[East Dubzz]

Winter Storm Warning for 6-10"... Not sure I agree with that, but I guess time will tell.

[GDR]

Wow north of i80? Shocking

[Geos]

18z GFS a bit further south.