Midwest & Great Lakes November 20-21st Snowstorm

[Tom]

I have a feeling this thing is going to push north like most early storms do.

Gotta shake off your warm bias...pattern is favorable for IA to get hit by this snowstorm.  Stop trying to deny it.

 

I'll be out of pocket all day, keep the posts coming guys!

[Niko]

EURO sniffed out this storms potential a couple days ago, now it seems like other models following suit and this could end up becoming a "Clipper" type system on Steroids.  00z EURO has a tightly packed storm with 20-30mph winds blowing the snow sideways.  Seems like the track will be to close for comfort around here, I think IA/N IL/S WI are in the right spot currently (Chicago area questionable).  Ground temps/850's marginal in the city, however, any adjust to track this far out is speculation ATM.

 

Euro Ensemble/Control in pretty good agreement...

 

06z GFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111806/gfs_asnow_ncus_19.png

I can see this having big potential. Time will tell. SEMI now is looking to be getting not much, if any. Probably some furry activity or a period of light snow at best with no accumulations. 

 

BTW...big time cold should really knock down our temperatures this weekend. Most of us on here will be shivering.

[jaster220]

06z NAM...

 

Not bad. If this can dig a little bit as you were hinting at yesterday, we'll end up ok. Looks like a score of 3" for me over in SCMI may be my bogey. Anything above would be bonus snow. It's only 21 Nov, not big snow climo territory by any means.

[gosaints]

Seeing the EURO makes  me think of the Madison jackpot glory days. 

[gosaints]

12z NAM is stronger so far on the leeside of the rockies

[gosaints]

Through 48 it looks like the NAM will stick on the north side of guidance

[Geos]

I have a feeling this thing is going to push north like most early storms do.

 

There is blocking to the north. Storm is going to travel more easterly and then curve once it gets past western MI.

 

Iowa is golden unless your way north or way south, then it may be a bit tricky.

[Geos]

What's really interesting about the NAM is that it curves towards the rest of the guidance on the eastern end.

 

[james1976]

DMX still isnt buying the moisture the models are showing. Hmm...

[Geos]

DMX still isnt buying the moisture the models are showing. Hmm...

 

All these storm this month have been juiced up, not too hard to believe another one with colder air can't do the same!

[james1976]

They dont wanna buy into the moisture the GFS is showing, even though GGEM and Euro are spitting out more. I dont understand what they are talking about.

[WBadgersW]

GFS slower and South. It definitely seems like models are trending slower. Placement still seems up to debate.

[East Dubzz]

I hope the slower result takes place, not only because having it take place more towards nighttime would be better, but because if this does occur, I have someone traveling to the Quad Cities mid afternoon and I would rather them not have to deal with snow.

 

Definitely liked that 12z GFS run, and the amount of moisture the models are throwing out right now. I personally don't think those amounts will come to be true, but the fact that it's showing plenty of moisture availability is something I like to see, especially as we start to inch closer to the event.

[Iowa2015]

Like slower Now just another 20ish miles south & I'll be close to middle of the those hot pink purple color like after sunset would maximum accumulation

[WBadgersW]

Gem is South, looks good for Northern and Central Illinois.

 

Makes sence, most of the storms this fall have taken a more Southern route.

[East Dubzz]

The DVN has snow accumulations for ~3" on Friday night. While I know this will change, man that is nice to see again.

[gosaints]

Ukie looks alot like the 0z Euro

[Geos]

GEM is pretty strong still I heard. Limited to my phone for the time being.

[Money]

Ukie is strong and north like 0z euro

[Geos]

Hearing the EURO is a bit south of the 0z run.

 

Actually here is the map. Control runs are the same for today.

 

[Geos]

GEM.

 

[Madtown]

Unreal to see potential totals this high this early in the year. I will be happy if the ground is white Sat. morning.

[Iowa2015]

Wow. Trying not to get to excited yet Iowa gets bulls-eye if this versifies

[Tony]

^{Looks like a warning criteria type storm shaping up for a few members. It will definitely be a shock to the system to have several inches of snowfall with possible single digit lows this weekend especially with the weather we have been having this fall.}

 

^{What a start to the snow season if this actually pans out as currently modeled.}

[WBadgersW]

Ukie and EURO vs GFS,NAM,GEM

[Tony]

I'm not sure how the NAM handled this past storm but will be curious to see what it will show tomorrow. Only reason I say that as it normally has a robust qpf and would just be fun to look at.

[Snowshoe]

And here I thought I definitely would not need the snowshoes for deer hunting this year. Any jog north will make this an interesting opening day deer hunt.

[Tony]

This cannot be right. We are only in November!

[gosaints]

This cannot be right. We are only in November!

She gonna be a cold couple of nights.  Wouldnt use the GGEM temps though GFS and EURO are much more reliable for 2m temps

[jaster220]

This cannot be right. We are only in November!

 

Hints of things to come. It's actually been pretty brutal start to the winter on the other side of the globe. Looks like it is finally our turn. Catching up with us in '93-94 fashion

[Tony]

She gonna be a cold couple of nights.  Wouldnt use the GGEM temps though GFS and EURO are much more reliable for 2m temps

GEM also seems to overdo qpf as well but I figured I would go "BIG" just to show what a major change we are in for this weekend.

[jaster220]

 

 

Really awesome to score this map right outta the gate! Native of 50 yrs in SMI and can't really remember it happening this early before.

[Maxim]

GEM also seems to overdo qpf as well but I figured I would go "BIG" just to show what a major change we are in for this weekend.

Back into the 40s and 50s next week though

[Tony]

Back into the 40s and 50s next week though

Actually I will be fine with that even though 60's would be better to put up the Christmas lights.

[Tony]

Read somewhere where the November snowfall record for Chicago is around 12" so this record should stay intact but not sure about the other member areas on how they stand.

[gosaints]

13 inches in on 11/23/1991 here. Had 30 inches that month!!! Average is about 6 inches in november

[westMJim]

Read somewhere where the November snowfall record for Chicago is around 12" so this record should stay intact but not sure about the other member areas on how they stand.

The record November snow fall for the Chicago area is 14.8" in 1940 

[NEJeremy]

Hearing the EURO is a bit south of the 0z run.

 

Actually here is the map. Control runs are the same for today.

 

Any way to get this zoomed out a bit to show Nebraska and western Iowa?

[Geos]

This cannot be right. We are only in November!

 

We had a couple sub zero lows last November if I remember right. Or maybe it was single digits.

 

Temperatures will be under guidance until the snow melts off next week. 

[Geos]

Any way to get this zoomed out a bit to show Nebraska and western Iowa?

 

I grabbed it from another source. Tom with the subscription to Wxbell could get you a map.