Midwest & Great Lakes November 20-21st Snowstorm

[Grizzcoat]

NAM through 60hrs

 

[East Dubzz]

Oh that's a beauty of a run.

[Tom]

Looks like over the past 2 runs on the NAM, it is broadening the accumulating snow band.  Doesn't look as thin...good sign IMO.

[Geos]

Looking better than the 18z run - getting closer to all the other models.

 

 

Still different

 

[bud2380]

 

Hi res nam

[james1976]

00z NAM-Thank you for the bullseye. Wow

[Geos]

WAs just about to post the 4km NAM.

 

[NEJeremy]

image.jpg

 

Hi res nam

C'mon .5" for me!!!!

[Andrew NE]

@jeremy the GFS is getting be our only hope to not end up with some rain changing to flurries.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS through 66

 

[Money]

Another bump north on the gfs starting to look like euro/ ukie

 

12-14 in S. Wi

[GDR]

Like I said keeps jogging north

[Tom]

This system is showing signs of going neg tilt when it starts to round the bend into the lower lakes.  Anyone else seeing that?

 

Like I said keeps jogging north

Not till it turns NE once the SLP is in IL...IA is golden to see a good amount of snow...

 

 

The trough is positively tilted in the Plains/Midwest...then I see it starting to tilt at HR 66

[Geos]

Big totals.

 

[Tom]

Whoever gets underneath that defo band is going to cash in big time...EastDubbz/Hawkeye/Bud near the epicenter for this 00z GFS run...

[Madtown]

Please lock this in!

[Tom]

Evaporative cooling is going to play a big role, esp near the lake around here...kinda on the edge about it being a rain/snow mix initially near ORD/Chicago....

[Tom]

This system looks like a good 16-18 hour event...not bad for a first sticking snow of the season for those who are in the heart of the storm.

[Geos]

Evaporative cooling is going to play a big role, esp near the lake around here...kinda on the edge about it being a rain/snow mix initially near ORD/Chicago....

 

4km NAM has most areas just inland starting out around 34° then settling back to 32-33°.

 

ORD shouldn't have much marine influence. ORD sounding at 6am.

Very shallow above freezing layer.

 

[Tom]

Please lock this in!

RPM model is painting 13" for your area, 4" MKE, 12" Janesville...

[GDR]

[Money]

0z GEM at HR 60

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif

[bud2380]

Canadian storm totals

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/SIJOt1w.gif

[Tom]

Really the whole state of Iowa getting blasted by that GFS run Not buying it.

Why are you having a hard time believing it when run after run models are painting more moisture/snowfall???  Maybe you should understand what a jet speed max can do then you'd realize real quick how you can form ample precip and optimal conditions to produce snow...read the DMX Disco Grizz posted...

 

Here's an article representing Uccellini & Kocin's theory of jet stream dynamics...

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cunning/mesopre.html

[Money]

Canadian storm totals

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/SIJOt1w.gif

 

 

North/stronger than 12z. Seems like a trend. 

 

WSW will probably be posted for S. WI/N. IL tomorrow. 

[Tom]

Canadian storm totals

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/SIJOt1w.gif

Nice to see the heavier snow backing farther west each run...now all of IA is practically under 6"+ of snow...

[bud2380]

I80 on north in Iowa will likely get WSW issued as well.

[Grizzcoat]

Being that it is the first/significant accumulating event of the season for many-- NWS will likely not be as tight when it comes to issuing Advisories/Warnings..

[james1976]

I cant get enough of this! What great runs tonight!

[Money]

UKIE

 

HR 60

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

 

72

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[Money]

HR 60

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

 

72

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[Geos]

Canadian storm totals

 

 

 

Weird little 6" snow finger south of Chicago...

[Money]

That would be a widespread 10-12+ from Iowa into Wisconsin on the UKMET. 

[bud2380]

UK looks pretty dang good.  Models are in very good agreement at this point, so the Euro better not throw a curveball. 

[Madtown]

Unreal... might be a November storm to remember

[Money]

Total snowfall on Ukie (still snowing in some areas at HR 72 yet)

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

 

25 M is 1.00 QPF 

[Geos]

NAM Keeps the temperature AOB freezing for the entire storm here. Then shows a low of about 8° on Sunday morning!

 

CMC total snowfall

 

 

Grids in SE WI already going with 3-7". 90% chance of snow.

 

Grids near Dubuque already mention 6".

[james1976]

OMG at the UKIE!

[Madtown]

4-8 in my point and click. 2-4 Fri night and 2-4 Sat

[Money]

Euro throws a curveball and is much weaker/south.