Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Definitely a narrower band of 6"+. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 It's never winter weather season without drastic model shifts within 2-3 days of an event Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Definitely a narrower band of 6"+. Still not all that bad though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yeah I love that run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 It looks alright Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Jackpot on the 6z. Hopefully the trend North sticks. MKE seems to be leaning towards the EURO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Welcome to WINTER 2015/16 everyone! Hope you all enjoyed the warm season and its great to be tracking again =) That being said, i am moving to Florida this week so can we please just let SEMI get nailed right before i go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Winter Storm Watches hoisted for parts of S WI/N IL/IA! First significant Snow of the season on the way... Here is LOT's take...I'll take that for the first snows anyday... http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=98123 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 06z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Quad Cities take... http://www.weather.gov/images/dvn/WxStory/File.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 The general idea here in GRR for the weekend snow is for around 3 to 6" Not sure how much of that will accumulate on the ground. Here is a the short write up on today thru the weekend. http://www.weather.gov/crh/weatherstory?sid=grr&embed=#.Vk3WAvmrTIU and the general discussion SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015 PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINATION OF HOW HIGH WINDS WILL GUST LATER TODAY AND TO ASSESS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL FROM VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY CANADA AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGHER RESOLUTION WIND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 45 TO 55 MPH ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE IN THAT TIME FRAME. FURTHER INLAND A CONSENSUS OF THE MAJORITY OF 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND GUSTS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 35 TO 44 MPH RANGE BUT NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING TO THE NE TO NORTHERN OHIO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR FCST AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR A SWATH OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL ACROSS OUR FCST AREA FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND DEFORMATION ZONE PROCESSES. GFS GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH A DEEPER CYCLONE BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. IT IS NOTED THAT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER WITH CUMULATIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND IS NOW DOWN TO THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND SNOW. HEAVY SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 12z NAM seems like it took a jog south... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 12z NAM seems like it took a jog south...For sure. You could jack pot if temp profiles workout for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 For sure. You could jack pot if temp profiles workout for you.I'm nervous about the temp profiles around here. Really hoping evaporational/dyanmic cooling works its magic. Unless there is a big supply of arctic air, these early season snows tend to favor the N/NW burbs with the heaviest snows. If I get 4" I'll be a happy camper. Places farther west look to be in the hot spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 12z NAM seems like it took a jog south... NAM looking "better" over my way, but if that is storm total, then it has not the dynamics for SMI that many models have been showing since that early Euro run a couple days ago took the SLP over Lk. Erie in the 990's mb range and showed the thumb region of MI with 6-12+ Have the jet dynamics diminished/changed since the thread was started? Some models like the last (4) GEM runs seem to be holding steady that the system stays strong over our way. What do you make of it? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 @ Jaster, I'm on my phone so won't have access to those maps. I believe the dynamics are still there. Took a look at the high rez models and they were showing some pretty good banding, even some heavier bands over the lake. Should be interesting to see this unfold if some 1"+/hr snowfall rates occur. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Winter Storm Watches hoisted for parts of S WI/N IL/IA! First significant Snow of the season on the way... Here is LOT's take...I'll take that for the first snows anyday... Need to include more counties imo.Sounds are looking cold enough for most of Cook and Will County now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 4km NAM has some heavy snowfall and over a wider area. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Omaha looks like it could be in an all or nothing scenario. This system has an incredibly sharp cutoff, I don't think I'll see a flake. NOAA is actually being rather optimistic imo, saying we have a shot at 1-3", even down here in Lincoln. Seems like it could be one of those "day of" events, but definitely think James and Geos are the winners here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 NAM is definitely trending south and lines up more with the other models especially out here in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. NAM for quite a while had nothing for us here and now is looking like 4 or 5". Jim Flowers has been doing updates on his Facebook page and his concern is temp profiles and how close we are going to be in Omaha. He showed a graphic that had the cut off zone basically right over town where northwest suburbs of Bennington could get 4" where as Offutt AFB could only get 1". I'm on the north part of town so hoping for a good 4-5" myself Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Had to post a snowfall showing my local region. 10-11" bullseye a few miles from my location. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS holding steady Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 4km NAM has some heavy snowfall and over a wider area. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015111912/nam4km_asnow_ncus_21.png Liking that SW to NE oriented hvy streak in SMI. Basically places mby in the sweet spot. fun times outta nowhere - wild in a good way b4 Thxgvng even! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 12z GFS The further NW now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 So I'm going to get anything from 1"-10". Nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS showing that wind out of the east/southeast really eating away at the qpf as it gets closer to the lake, even to the far western burbs. I wonder how much this will cut into to the totals. Also shows a nice LE signal on these runs which could enhance snowfall rates. Don't really know what to expect with this system as there is alot going on and depending on location will either be a huge hit or a bust. Either way something to track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Going with 4" imby. Too big of bust potential to go higher. Thinking that's what all the nws offices are doing too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Riding the southern edge depending on what model you believe It's going to be a cash in with 6+ or a near bust With couple inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Moisture there just going to come down to how quickly we change over to snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 UKMET is in the Northern camp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 UKMET is in the Northern campYep...farthest north of any model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 On amwx people saying toss it. Not sure why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 On amwx people saying toss it. Not sure why?Probably because its North, but its nothing too unrealistic.The GFS does support the UKMET, just not as far North. Definitely can't say it should be tossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 If the EURO follows the UKIE then it is onto something otherwise it's on its own and not worth looking at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 On amwx people saying toss it. Not sure why?Because it doesn't make sense. The set-up wouldn't support that far of a north track. South is the way to go imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Strong lake plume signature on the GEM. Maxim, you could be buried! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 ^Most of the models have been showing a very strong LE so will be interesting to see how it setsup. It could really rev up the totals in certain areas and seems to be far reaching meaning western burbs could be affected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 12z GFS The further NW now. quite a bit better for us east of you though.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Definitely a narrower band of 6"+. Geos, I am in the light purple shaded area. Right on the northern tip. Wow, I am shocked. Thats a 6-10 inch total if I am correct.I always knew this storm had potential. Still a couple of days away. This thing can wiggle north and end up here with nothing or get a substantial amounts of snow. Will see how it pans out. What I do know is that some people on this board will get a lot of snow from this system. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2015 Report Share Posted November 19, 2015 Ukie/GFS vs NAM/GGEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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