December Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

Maxim is having a field day with all this warmth...never have I witnessed soo many posts from him over the past 3 years.  I guess we need to have more warm Winters to get you fired up!

[Maxim]

Maxim is having a field day with all this warmth...never have I witnessed soo many posts from him over the past 3 years.  I guess we need to have more warm Winters to get you fired up!

so much for the end of the month pattern change, lol.

[Tom]

so much for the end of the month pattern change, lol.

Indeed...the December that will be remembered for the Torch of 2015...you finally got what you've been waiting for...it's too bad, because the Holidays around here don't feel festive when its this warm and no snow.  

[gosaints]

September through december.... At least torch of 2015(january still has a chance to follow suit). Following the ice box.

[winterfreak]

I just hope Jan is a little better. Heck, give me seasonal averages and I'll be happy. We could all work with that I think.

[winterfreak]

Holidays can feel festive when it's warm. Depends on the person. But hey, what do I know? I'm just a kid from Miami.

[Tom]

I wonder what all the Climate alarmists are saying regarding Alaska's fast start to Winter.  Over the last couple years, there was so much "panic" in the media...not so much this year.  It all balances out in the end.

 

Santa won't have a problem landing his sleigh this year...a very deep snow pack has been established up that way...he may have to put on an extra few layers with these day time high temps on Christmas eve!

[gosaints]

The globe is running +2.5 or something in december but I get your point.

 

Open water on lake of the woods on the Canadian border is crazy for this time of the year

[jlp]

Maybe "Maxim" should move to Florida.

[bud2380]

96" snow depth?  That would be an incredible sight.  It is very weird to see green grass in mid December in Iowa, but it's everywhere.  Crazy. 

[OKwx2k4]

I may as well find things to enjoy about the warmer weather I suppose. Would be kinda neat to grill and play volleyball on Christmas with my family. Would make for a unique gathering this year. I usually have to work 12-14 hours a day by this time of year because of the cold and so far I've still been able to maintain a normal schedule so I'm happy about that too.

[Maxim]

Indeed...the December that will be remembered for the Torch of 2015...you finally got what you've been waiting for...it's too bad, because the Holidays around here don't feel festive when its this warm and no snow.  

This makes up for what we dealt with during 2013-2014, which was a pretty terrible winter if you really think about it.

[Tom]

This makes up for what we dealt with during 2013-2014, which was a pretty terrible winter if you really think about it.

Depends on your perspective...I'll never forget that Winter season...it was quite amazing to see how consistently cold and snowy it was.  We didn't have the Blizzards, but did squeeze out a couple whoppers including some good Lehs.  

[winterfreak]

Western lakes cutters galore on the GFS. Just no cold air to work with. Perfect storm track, which makes it a real shame.

[Tom]

Western lakes cutters galore on the GFS. Just no cold air to work with. Perfect storm track, which makes it a real shame.

True, but I think this will all pay dividends down the road as the snow pack builds up near the Canadian border and the high Plains/Northwoods.

[clintbeed1993]

Depends on your perspective...I'll never forget that Winter season...it was quite amazing to see how consistently cold and snowy it was.  We didn't have the Blizzards, but did squeeze out a couple whoppers including some good Lehs.  

 

I can't forget that winter fast enough.  Nothing but brutal cold and dry over here with extreme wind like every day.  Worst winter ever.

[Tom]

I can't forget that winter fast enough.  Nothing but brutal cold and dry over here with extreme wind like every day.  Worst winter ever.

I can't even imagine what you guys went through that year.  Frozen/cracked ground is just horrid to see during the Winter.  Watch nature flip the coin and Jan-Mar this year you guys are lights out.  I'm seeing signs that your Winter is about to begin very soon.  I think near Christmas you'll see more wintry weather.  The pattern may start getting blocked up after this weeks energy transfer/burst into the stratosphere.  After reading last nights article AER posted, there is evidence that suggest Winter should return.

 

Also, the last few runs of the GFS are showing the AO/NAO dip back to neutral by the 26th.  Euro is similar, but not quite there yet.  Would like to see a few more days of runs though.

[Geos]

OP GFS not as big about the really warm Christmas now. Waiting to see what the EURO has for that day in particular. Now the 23rd on the other hand is a different story.

 

I noticed that their is a incoming Arctic air mass on the 27th with that storm on the maps. If that cold air could come into the US a little bit earlier it would force that storm further underneath/south.

 

GEFS is like what torch for Christmas?

 

[Maxim]

ok, geos

[Geos]

By Christmas Eve high the SSW coming up from eastern Siberia is actively pushing on the PV.

 

[Geos]

Well the EURO is flattening things out for Christmas. Not putting much stock into a solution 10 days out though.

 

 

[Tom]

00z Euro showing some interesting developments near Alaska Day 8-10 with rising heights and building a massive 1040mb HP that expands and builds up in NW NAMER by Day 10 (1044mb).  BTW, this is the exact location of where the Euro Seasonal has the highest heights building in North America.  The map below would be a perfect illustration of the models Jan-Mar 500mb pattern.

 

One would imagine that once you can get that blocking to set up, this pattern would be phenomenal with Canada loaded with arctic air.

 

00z Euro with the EPO/WPO neutral around Christmas...AO/NAO not quite there yet.

[Tom]

Well the EURO is flattening things out for Christmas. Not putting much stock into a solution 10 days out though.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121600/ecmwf_T850_namer_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121600/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png

 

 

Nice to see that Bearing Sea low flooding western AK with warmth Day 8-10.

[Geos]

Yeah there's definitely some difference in Canada around Christmas on the EURO now. Storm placement in the southwest vs. Midwest. Cross polar flow vs. no cross polar flow before. Scratch that part... cross polar flow on both. The flow is a bit stronger on this run though. Placement of high in Alberta vs. the Canadian Archipelago before.

 

And what you mentioned above^

[GDR]

[CentralNebWeather]

Unfortunately NWS Hastings is really pessimistic on a white Christmas around here.  Hope they are mistaken.

 

Wednesday through Christmas...this is just beyond the end of our
forecast period and we typically do not look out this far.
However...given the approaching Christmas Holiday will take a
quick look out just a little further than normal for clues on what
the pattern might be like for Christmas. At this time neither the
00z GFS or 00z European model (ecmwf) model indicate any kind of substantial storm
system in the plains. A forecast out this far is especially
subject to change...but right now a white Christmas for the local
area is looking rather unlikely.

[gosaints]

Ensembles have 18 hours of the next 384 below normal anywhere east of the mississippi

[Tom]

I guess that Bearing Sea storm tied the lowest pressure ever recorded...

 

http://mashable.com/2015/12/15/massive-alaska-storm/?utm_content=buffer635ee&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#4cAEOf19kiqB

[Snowshoe]

We need the cold just to slow the flow of water into the rivers after all that rain. 

Green Bay December rainfall records were set during the event:

Record                  Amount Comment 
Heaviest 2-Day Total     3.51" Previous record 2.50" in 1891 
2nd Heaviest 1-Day Total 1.91" (12/14/2015) Current record 1.94" on 12/14/1891 
3rd Heaviest 1-Day Total 1.60" (12/13/2015)   
3rd Wettest December     3.93" (as of 12/15/2015) Current record 4.20" in 1893 

http://www.weather.gov/grb/121415_heavyrain

[Tom]

For those who follow the Brazilian Meteograms...there has been a lot of flip flopping in the model's trends over the last 2 weeks, but recent trends showing more consistency.  The last 4 runs in a row for Chicago.  Could the models be picking up on the SSW???

 

http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2015121412/08808W4158N.png

http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2015121500/08808W4158N.png

http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2015121512/08808W4158N.png

http://img0.cptec.inpe.br/~rio/tempo/global/acoplado/meteogramas/2015121600/08808W4158N.png

 

 

Is this Winter going to make a comeback???  Could it be a combination of a 2012-2013 back loaded Winter into Spring???  Model still showing hints of snow through March into April.  El Nino's typically see more blocking mid/late winter.  It'll be interesting to see if this holds true this season.

[NEJeremy]

Maxim and GDR and go saints remind me of another forum I'm on, a Cubs forum. There are posters on there that only post Cubs won't win, this is horrible move, etc etc. I get it, this is a forum for open discussion, but at the same time you're coming to a forum where there are fans of winter weather or in my example fans of the Chicago Cubs, so why the need to post 10x a day the same "negative" things. We get it. Even if you're right, at least allow us fans the optimism we'd like to have instead of all this non stop pessimism.

Maxim is having a field day with all this warmth...never have I witnessed soo many posts from him over the past 3 years. I guess we need to have more warm Winters to get you fired up!

[Tom]

00z GGEM/EURO/12z GFS showing a sneaky system before Christmas trying to lay down some snow...

[Troop]

Thanks NEJeremy for saying something that needed to be said. (You can add Money to that list too). I have a business that depends on winter weather (skiing) and this December has been a killer for us, but daily groaning of my worries here won't change Mother Nature one bit. Now, back to the posts that off substantive weather information...

[gosaints]

Lol ok.... How dare I make posts on a weather board.  

 

Fine snow is on the way...... eventually.  I love snow storms.  Havent experienced a real one here for a long while.  I like my chances this year eventually.  No more of this northwest flow garbage.  

 

Until a sensible pattern change occurs.  Maybe by mid january as anything before the will just be another blip there isnt much to talk about.  

[gosaints]

And why would anyone talk about a record breaking month in a number of different ways on a weather forum.....

[Geos]

I understand that some folks like it mild, some folks like to see warm records broken and talking about all of that is fine. Don't need to post every warm, mild map out there either. (Just like not every cold run needs to posted either) And if there is cold shots on the models at least acknowledge that they are there, instead of saying the whole run is mild, above normal, or a torch. I haven't seen any run that has been far above normal through the whole time period it runs for.

And like always, models change several times a day; something in the long range and even in the medium range can disappear quickly as it appears.

 

On that note the operational GFS is looking a lot more seasonable for most of the Midwest. A couple really warm day after Christmas and that's about it if your north of I-70. GEFS is showing a cooling trend also, but has the colder look, except for the Ohio Valley, Indiana on eastward.

[Geos]

Thanks NEJeremy for saying something that needed to be said. (You can add Money to that list too). I have a business that depends on winter weather (skiing) and this December has been a killer for us, but daily groaning of my worries here won't change Mother Nature one bit. Now, back to the posts that off substantive weather information...

 

Money likes snow and cold to trend towards his place. It's the "my backyard will be ground zero for this storm" mentality. I think we're all guilty of that though. 

He's missed out on a lot of good storms in recent years... they've trended south at the last minute and that is frustrating to see.

[gosaints]

I understand that some folks like it mild, some folks like to see warm records broken and talking about all of that is fine. Don't need to post every warm, mild map out there either. (Just like not every cold run needs to posted either) And if there is cold shots on the models at least acknowledge that they are there, instead of saying the whole run is mild, above normal, or a torch. I haven't seen any run that has been far above normal through the whole time period it runs for.

And like always, models change several times a day; something in the long range and even in the medium range can disappear quickly as it appears.

 

On that note the operational GFS is looking a lot more seasonable for most of the Midwest. A couple really warm day after Christmas and that's about it if your north of I-70. GEFS is showing a cooling trend also, but has the colder look, except for the Ohio Valley, Indiana on eastward.

You were reading the board when I was getting ripped for not agreeing that december was going to end up close to average right?  And when there is a cold dont worry we will have posters make up for it even if their isnt snow to go with it

[gosaints]

Its not often that we set precipitation records in relatively snowless decembers.

[Geos]

You were reading the board when I was getting ripped for not agreeing that december was going to end up close to average right?  And when there is a cold dont worry we will have posters make up for it even if their isnt snow to go with it

 

Yeah I was reading your posts. 

I always had a feeling December could be a dud month, just based on the strong el Niño fact. 

 

It's fun tracking big storms, even if there not impacting you with snow or someone else with snow. Now if it was drier than it is, it would be really dead in here!