11/29 - 11/30 Plains/Midwest Snowstorm

[centralweather44]

I'll take 2-4" any day. We have to be real. We don't get 8-12" in southeast Nebraska very often. Our typical snows are 2-6". 2-4" still puts all my plows on the ground

[james1976]

I have a question. What is the difference between the 12k NAM and the 4k NAM?

[jcwxguy]

Resolution

 

(I'll update previous map to hour 60 when its out)

[Iowa2015]

If only it could shift 75 miles east.

[GDR]

I'd bet 75 miles west

[Iowa2015]

I'd bet 75 miles west

most likely or North

[Tom]

00z GFS...

[educatorjen]

00z GFS...

Screaming silently!!!

[jcwxguy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112900/gfs_asnow_us_10.png

[CentralNebWeather]

Towel thrown in. I went from close to a foot to now it basically jumps over me. Frustrating.

[Iowa2015]

Strip of central Nebraska small strip of nw Iowa Minnesota get hammered Rest area not so much

[Tom]

Boy, this is just headed way to far north...no blocking HP  to the north and these cut-off systems can do some funny things.  It's turning out to be a MSP special.

[james1976]

If GFS was colder I'd be in a good spot. Looking more like a cold rain here, or maybe freezing rain with a bit of snow mixed in. Gross.

[gabel23]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112900/gfs_asnow_us_10.png

Looks like 6-12" from Kearney northeast to Norfolk. I'm thinking that line shifts another 3 or 4 times before its all said and done. Pretty wide spread on the models.

[jcwxguy]

Soon Canadian will be available

[CentralNebWeather]

I am cheering for the Canadian. Pour me a molson please.

[jcwxguy]

Low is southeast of KC at hour 42 on Canadian then south central Iowa at 48 and North Central at 54

[Tom]

00z GGEM...looking better for E NE...

[Tom]

00z RGEM...not to shabby in NE...still snowing thru HR 48...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015112900/rgem_asnow_us_16.png

 

 

[Geos]

Entire CMC snowfall.

 

[gabel23]

Entire CMC snowfall.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015112900/gem_asnow_ncus_16.png

Sign and stamp that one! It's really amazing we are even talking snow with the high ao and nao........ill take it.

[Tom]

00z Euro...looks very similar to the GGEM

 

[Money]

Haven't even had an 1/2 inch here on the season...

[jcwxguy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015112912/namconus_asnow_us_29.png

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015112912/nam4km_asnow_us_21.png

(WILL BE UPDATED AS MODEL UPDATES)

[NEJeremy]

I've been under 3 winter storm watches already this season. More than probably all of last year when we had 14" of snow total. Of the first two, one watch went to a warning and the other an advisory. In the first two storms, I've had rain and then an hour of snow that accumulated to a 1/2", and in the second storm just had freezing rain and sleet that really only accumulated a bit on trees and decks. This storm looks to give me 2-4" of snow max. Watch will probably be changed to an advisory too. Not a lot to get excited about so far. Will probably end up with 4" of snow total in the first 3 watches of the season

[james1976]

Looks like WPC and NAM pretty much agree on SLP track. GFS seems to be a tad more to the east.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/lowtrack_circles.gif

[james1976]

Actually, WPC looks even further west than the NAM.

[Jaycee]

4/4 on dry slots. Have had the main SLP go right over top each time. What are the chances? It's just sickening

[james1976]

4/4 on dry slots. Have had the main SLP go right over top each time. What are the chances? It's just sickening

Actually, this storm is different. The heaviest snow axis looks to follow the SLP.

[james1976]

Those 12z NAM runs show a very widespread 2-4" around that heavy band. Gotta remember there will be mixed precip for a lot of us, which is maybe why the models are showing lesser snow amounts. DMX is talking rain/frz rain for part of the event.

[Snowshoe]

Same here.

Haven't even had an 1/2 inch here on the season...

[Tom]

12z RGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015112912/rgem_asnow_ncus_14.png

[Jaycee]

Those 12z NAM runs show a very widespread 2-4" around that heavy band. Gotta remember there will be mixed precip for a lot of us, which is maybe why the models are showing lesser snow amounts. DMX is talking rain/frz rain for part of the event.

Wait... did you mean 12-14"?

[james1976]

Wait... did you mean 12-14"?

No, the map shows widespread 2-4 around that 6-10.

[jcwxguy]

12z gfs

[Tom]

12z GFS....

 

 

[james1976]

Man thats a wicked cutoff.

[jcwxguy]

my call for lincoln- mix of rain/freezing rain to sleet to snow, 2-3"

[gabel23]

I'll be happy with whatever I see, snow in November for us doesn't happen very often. With that being said this is my second November in a row with snow so whatever else falls is a bonus. I'm thinking 3-6" along the Platte river with my area seeing 2-4". One thing is certain, even with the teleconnections being the way they are its been stormy, I can't wait to see what the cold phase of the LRC will bring.

[jcwxguy]

.