11/29 - 11/30 Plains/Midwest Snowstorm

[jcwxguy]

almost time for the euro

[Geos]

I'm really pullin' for your in eastern Nebraska to get a good snow out of this system.

RGEM pulling that higher qpf area further south.

 

 

Ride the GFS!

 

[james1976]

Yeah that GFS looks pretty good for me too. Interested to see if DMX will add a row of counties onto the eastern side of the Watch. That would put me in it.

[james1976]

What did the GGEM show?

[jcwxguy]

anyone have the 12z euro maps?  Edit: that gfs snowfall maps looks different to others ive seen

[Snowlover76]

What time is this starting?  I land at Omaha at around 10 pm tonight should I be good? 

[jcwxguy]

around 9-10pm for the mix bag

[Snowlover76]

D**n, cutting it close. 

[jcwxguy]

What did the GGEM show?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015112912/gem_asnow_us_14.png

[Snowlover76]

Hopefully classes at UNL are cancelled on Monday, but I doubt that happens. 

[Snowlover76]

Why is OAX still forecasting 1-3?  Are they sticking to a warmer solution? 

[jcwxguy]

Why is OAX still forecasting 1-3?  Are they sticking to a warmer solution? 

probably, but even if we get 3" they are technically correct. 

[gabel23]

Hopefully classes at UNL are cancelled on Monday, but I doubt that happens.

 

Not much wind to go with this storm so whatever snow we do get shouldn't cause to many problems.

[james1976]

No Euro?

[jcwxguy]

18z nam is horrible 

[james1976]

18z nam is horrible 

Looks like you guys get hit good judging by the surface map.

[jcwxguy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015112918/namconus_asnow_us_10.png

[Guest Snowball]

Winter storm warning for lincoln

[gosaints]

Probably.just a slopfest here. Gonna be close. 18z gfs a concrete mixer

[james1976]

Probably.just a slopfest here. Gonna be close. 18z gfs a concrete mixer

where u located?

[gosaints]

where u located?

St charles mn

[NEJeremy]

Neat. Winter storm warning for Omaha for up to .25" ice and only 2-4" of snow. I'd rather it just rain than deal with stupid ice and just a couple of inches of snow. Another disappointment. 2 winter storm warnings and a winter weather advisory already this season, and we'll be lucky to total 4" of snow between all 3

[james1976]

Neat. Winter storm warning for Omaha for up to .25" ice and only 2-4" of snow. I'd rather it just rain than deal with stupid ice and just a couple of inches of snow. Another disappointment. 2 winter storm warnings and a winter weather advisory already this season, and we'll be lucky to total 4" of snow between all 3

At least it's active!

[james1976]

I'm in a winter weather advisory for possible 2 tenths of ice and then 1-2" of snow. Should be a crusty mess. One county to my west is a winter storm warning.

[james1976]

These types of systems are a nightmare for forecasters. Trying to figure out precip types and how much of each, and where.

[Jaycee]

 HRRR has LNK/OMA as the hotspot for precip. Here is the snowfall, still snowing at this point as well: 

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015112913/t2/acsnw_t2sfc_f24.png

EDIT: Not sure how much effort they put in here, but given where the Heavy Snow looks to fall (Minnesota), they are claiming it to be right overtop of OMA/LNK, i think this could get interesting. 

 

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.gif?1448839577

[clintbeed1993]

Is there a reason that heavy band is so narrow?  It's literally like 2 counties wide tops and everywhere else around it doesn't even get half of it's amounts.  Not really sure what the deal is with that.

[jcwxguy]

Would like to see a recent run of that since that run is old

[CentralNebWeather]

Good point Clint. I have watched the models for days and it has been consistent. If it comes true, who ever is underneath the heavy band could get significantly higher amounts than everyone else. Where it sets up is the key.

[clintbeed1993]

I just don't understand why it's that narrow.  I rarely see it that narrow in any storm.  Pretty much screws almost the entire state it that's the case.

[Snowlover76]

I just don't understand why it's that narrow. I rarely see it that narrow in any storm. Pretty much screws almost the entire state it that's the case.

We used to get Norluns in the northeast that were like that. Nor'Easters used to do that same thing as well when they had heavy banding. Some areas would have 25" and others a few miles away would have 10"

[gabel23]

 HRRR has LNK/OMA as the hotspot for precip. Here is the snowfall, still snowing at this point as well: 

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2015112913/t2/acsnw_t2sfc_f24.png

EDIT: Not sure how much effort they put in here, but given where the Heavy Snow looks to fall (Minnesota), they are claiming it to be right overtop of OMA/LNK, i think this could get interesting. 

 

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.gif?1448839577

 

I just don't understand why it's that narrow.  I rarely see it that narrow in any storm.  Pretty much screws almost the entire state it that's the case.

 

Doesn't match the alignment of the snowfall Hastings and Omaha is predicting....their band of snow is aligned NW to SE. Gonna be an interesting next 24-48 hours. What I don't get is how OAX and Hastings can be so off on their warnings and advisories. Their warnings look so weird next to Hastings WWA for the CWA. 

[gabel23]

Neat. Winter storm warning for Omaha for up to .25" ice and only 2-4" of snow. I'd rather it just rain than deal with stupid ice and just a couple of inches of snow. Another disappointment. 2 winter storm warnings and a winter weather advisory already this season, and we'll be lucky to total 4" of snow between all 3

You should be exited, we have had 3 ULL's pass directly over SE Nebraska in a matter of 3 weeks. This winter will be a roller coaster active year and this year's severe weather season is going to be insane. I'm loving the set up of the LRC, can't wait to see the actual forecast. 

[CentralNebWeather]

I thought the same thing gabel23. Many times nws Hastings maps seem to come out of left field when comparing them to the gfs, nam, or euro.

[jcwxguy]

Anyone have access to the 12z euro?

[jcwxguy]

Would like to see a recent run of that since that run is old

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015112923/t2/acsnw_t2sfc_f15.png

[Jaycee]

I hate to be greedy but man, that really slams lincoln. I hope it spreads the wealth more, this is the absolute worst I've ever seen models this close to a storm. If that pans out, I don't think I'll ever trust the NAM again.

[jcwxguy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015113000/namconus_asnow_us_13.png

[Tom]

00z NAM suggests a nice "thump" snow over OMA/LNK between 8:00am - Noon tomorrow.  Showing 1-2"/hr snowfall rates with that band which rolls on through.  3-6" ain't bad at all since its only late November.  Hope it works out for you guys.

 

Through Monday midnight...

[East Dubzz]

This thing looks like a real pain in the rear end to forecast.