December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Some more precip heading towards me. Northerly flow is really messy out here. It will end up being drizzle regardless of the temp.

Drizzling here even with being able to look up and seeing stars. 36 degrees.

[luvssnow_spokane]

HR 210, definite improvement no doubt about it. Positive anomaly much stronger than previous runs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121500/gfs_z500a_namer_36.png

Improves a bit more at hour 228 . It is so far out though this is really huge pile of dangling carrots.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow 00z GFS says white Christmas on Winters Hill

[Front Ranger]

The main thing is the improvements before day 8. 

[GHweatherChris]

31 and frosty out, great night.

[TT-SEA]

00Z Canadian continues to be sort of interesting for next week as well.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[bainbridgekid]

WRF shows a massive snowstorm for the Gorge Thursday.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Improves a bit more at hour 228 . It is so far out though this is really huge pile of dangling carrots.

Yeah, there is improvement through day 10, not arctic, but the positive anomaly along 160 W is significantly stronger, more prominent than previous runs. Good signs for potential colder runs ahead.

[Gradient Keeper]

00Z Canadian continues to be sort of interesting for next week as well.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

Looks like improvement here too.

[Gradient Keeper]

The main thing is the improvements before day 8. 

Exactly.

[HighlandExperience]

00Z Canadian continues to be sort of interesting for next week as well.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

There is a good chance you will score in the next two weeks.

[Gradient Keeper]

As mentioned BITTER cold floods into Alaska-Yukon 850mb temps -30c to -45c

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121500/gfs_T850_ak_41.png

[Deweydog]

WRF shows a massive snowstorm for the Gorge Thursday.

 

12342428_881730361934607_1954892448128785787_n.jpg

I was just about to mention this. Pretty decent setup but the northerly trend in the models may prove to be an issue if it continues.

[Gradient Keeper]

This looks kind of chilly

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121500/gfs_T2m_ak_41.png

[Geos]

The PV is now officially the strongest ever recorded, both in the observational data and reanalysis back to the WWII era. This is true in terms of pressure, size, and thermals.

 

Additional records and anomalies include:

 

- The most amplified +QBO wave on record

- Highest weekly Niño 3.4 reading on record in Nov

- Lowest 850mb U-wind anomaly on record over NPAC in Nov

- Largest Dec +NAM on record in a Niño year (upcoming)

- Largest Dec NAM spike on record in a Niño year (upcoming)

 

We also observed the strongest hurricane ever recorded back in October, several record breaking +PDO monthlies, and one the weakest W/H ratio on record in 2015.

 

#anomalous #changeisafoot

 

Impressive anomalies. You're not the only only waiting for the Polar vortex to get knock off to the side and weakened. Been following the forecasts for the polar vortex to get displaced by a predicted SSW coming up from eastern Siberia at the end of the month. 

The EURO is showing a flip to a -EPO/+PNA around New Years. Would that be a fair prediction?

 

Someone on the central sub forum posted a link to a very interesting and thorough post on the state atmosphere both in the troposphere and stratosphere. Mentions that the eastern US ridge will eventually migrate to the Canadian arctic early next month and the Alaska vortex will retrograde westward.

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/(Dec. 11th post)

 

Been an interesting winter so far - I can't believe how wet this el Niño is. A historic snowstorm in November, which produced about a third of winters normal snowfall here.

Waiting for patiently for things to change, like most everyone else is. 

[Deweydog]

Does the Canadian only do a solution for 240 hours out?

[Snowman5678]

My first year of college in Oklahoma we had a massive 14" snow dump with a blizzard on 11/30/06. Great memories! Have fun. 

Enjoying it as long as my final isn't cancelled tomorrow and I can fly out tomorrow after noon. It is going to be a little disappointing leaving so much snow though.

[Timmy]

Does the Canadian only do a solution for 240 hours out?

Yes

[TT-SEA]

Enjoying it as long as my final isn't cancelled tomorrow and I can fly out tomorrow after noon. It is going to be a little disappointing leaving so much snow though.

 

 

That sucks leaving there now to come back here.

[Deweydog]

Yes

It's just the only image that ever gets posted so that makes sense I guess.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

When I was in college my flights home to and from winter break always landed in SLC. It seemed like it was always snowy.

[Timmy]

It's just the only image that ever gets posted so that makes sense I guess.

I read that wrong, I thought you were asking if that was the furthest it goes out. But I know what you mean

[TT-SEA]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif

[Deweydog]

I read that wrong, I thought you were asking if that was the furthest it goes out. But I know what you mean

Sometimes I wonder if models should just initialize at 180 hours.

[Snowman5678]

That sucks leaving there now to come back here.

 

It so does! Oh well, plenty of winter left when I get back in January!

[TT-SEA]

I will get interested when the ECMWF shows something interesting.

 

Here is a performance check on the ECMWF at 192 hours... the first map is what it showed for this morning 8 days ago.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120612!!chart.gif

 

And here is the actual initialization for this morning.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!0!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015121412!!chart.gif

[Front Ranger]

Sometimes I wonder if models should just initialize at 180 hours.

 

I've said it before...they should just stop the individual runs around day 9-10. 

 

But the governments of the world are determined to torture weenies.

[Front Ranger]

I will get interested when the ECMWF shows something interesting.

 

Here is a performance check on the ECMWF at 192 hours... the first map is what it showed for this morning 8 days ago.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120612!!chart.gif

 

And here is the actual initialization for this morning.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!0!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015121412!!chart.gif

 

 

Not great... but it certainly did not turn colder.

 

But it did verify a little colder than forecast 8 days out. Ha!

[Deweydog]

He can slam a revolving door... funny.

[Deweydog]

New 00z run of the GFS shows a White Christmas for some of us here west of the Cascades. Looks like the beaches might actually far better than the inland valleys.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20151215/00Z/f264/acc10_1snownw.png

Brookings road trip, *******!

[luvssnow_spokane]

But it did verify a little colder than forecast 8 days out. Ha!

Agreed, it did verify colder. Not sure what Tim is seeing.

[TT-SEA]

Agreed, it did verify colder. Not sure what Tim is seeing.

 

 

OK... a tiny bit colder over us.   

 

The point I was making is that it did not evolve into something colder overall across North America.    There was no magic appearance of true arctic air in Canada or Alaska.  Its all bottled up in the actual arctic.

[Gradient Keeper]

I've said it before...they should just stop the individual runs around day 9-10. 

 

But the governments of the world are determined to torture weenies.

Yep, and like the ECMWF, the GFS should only run 12z, 00z

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF is running!

Any improvement?

Ridge/anomaly stronger along 160 W?

Heat wave?

White Christmas?

[TT-SEA]

Here is the 216 hour verification on the ECMWF... top map was 9 days ago for this morning.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120512!!chart.gif

 

 

And the actual pattern this morning...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!0!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015121412!!chart.gif

[Phil]

Impressive anomalies. You're not the only only waiting for the Polar vortex to get knock off to the side and weakened. Been following the forecasts for the polar vortex to get displaced by a predicted SSW coming up from eastern Siberia at the end of the month.

 

The EURO is showing a flip to a -EPO/+PNA around New Years. Would that be a fair prediction?

 

 

That would be very early. I'm thinking mid-late January for the stratwarm and NAM flip, similar in timing to 2006-07. Even then, we'll have to deal with a strong Aleutian/GOA low, so end result will probably be a run-of-the-mill cold/snowy February over the SE half of the US.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a bad 00z ensemble suite!

[Front Ranger]

Not a bad 00z ensemble suite!

 

Way to jinx the Euro!

[DareDuck]

It so does! Oh well, plenty of winter left when I get back in January!

And if you're going to see family that trumps weather. If you're going to work, then that just sucks.

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks similar to GFS through 144 hrs, a bit more amplified with building offshore ridge.