December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Sitting at 30 degrees under cloudy skies, lots of frost!

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 168 500mb anomalies much better than previous 3 runs Heights rising nicely. Better amplification too.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121700/ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

[stuffradio]

Sitting at 30 degrees under cloudy skies, lots of frost!

Same here!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 significantly colder(not arctic yet) from previous runs. Note the contours show northerly flow extending well offshore and easterly flow over us. Likely means the ridge is tilting into Yukon with northeast flow over BC/AB. Step in the right direction

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121700/ecmwf_T850_nwus_10.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 500mb Heights. Yep nice tilt to ridge

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

[Gradient Keeper]

The ridge/positive anomaly was further north this run as I mentioned, if future runs built it just a bit more north/amplified this we'll see a significant blast.

[TT-SEA]

Sort of interesting pattern... but does not deliver.   It also does not show a progressive pattern at the end which could be better.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015121700!!chart.gif

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015121700!!chart.gif

[Front Ranger]

Top to bottom, coldest Euro run yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

If anything this will be a pretty significant low-level blast via Gorge with persistent cold pool....The Dalles at least 850mb -10c will do the job

[Front Ranger]

I agree that there are several players at work (poleward biased z-cells/anticyclones, -EPF, Niño forcing on NPAC cells, etc), but I'd never suggest that the +PV/+NAM is "not responsible" for the zonal hemispheric regime, as you suggested.

 

Never said that. Usually quotation marks are for quoting people. 

[westiztehbest]

have been thinking about moving to Spokane (south hill area). How do you like living there. I really love the weather as it seems like you guys have 4 seasons.

 

I live on the south hill (500 feet higher than downtown), which is usually 3F colder I've noticed.  Nice neighborhood.  Takes 12 minutes to get to work.  Lots of parks.  I grew up here and always loved the 4 seasons.  Summer is great here btw.  The lakes nearby are fantastic.  Mountains aren't too shabby either.  Don't have anything on the higher Cascades or Montana Rockies...but they're pretty none the less.  I also lived in SLC for school...that was cool experiencing the lake effect snow there and skiing the Wasatch mountains.  Super dry powder was pretty memorable.

[TT-SEA]

I just went back a week ago on here and there were lots of posts drooling over a very cold pattern starting right now and going into this weekend.     Almost the same discussion.  

[snow_wizard]

The ridge/positive anomaly was further north this run as I mentioned, if future runs built it just a bit more north/amplified this we'll see a significant blast.

 

I like the trend for sure.  A blend of the GFS and ECMWF would probably be a winner.  The ECMWF more effectively deliver cold air, but the GFS would have more moisture potential.  This thing still has good potential to work out.  I even like the way the ECMWF looks at the end.  Tons of potential for some kind of a reload.

[Gradient Keeper]

I like the trend for sure.  A blend of the GFS and ECMWF would probably be a winner.  The ECMWF more effectively deliver cold air, but the GFS would have more moisture potential.  This thing still has good potential to work out.  I even like the way the ECMWF looks at the end.  Tons of potential for some kind of a reload.

The main trend I see is on the GFS/ECMWF for the Aleutian ridge to be stronger, more amplified. If that continues we're going to see a significant blast. We won't know that until maybe 00z Friday. Onto 6z!

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 23 minutes

[TT-SEA]

I like the trend for sure.  A blend of the GFS and ECMWF would probably be a winner.  The ECMWF more effectively deliver cold air, but the GFS would have more moisture potential.  This thing still has good potential to work out.  I even like the way the ECMWF looks at the end.  Tons of potential for some kind of a reload.

 

Work out how?    

 

Reload what?   There is never a first load.   It only gets marginally cool even on the ECMWF.   

[snow_wizard]

One thing I really like about the ECMWF is it has the best balance between the maritime and continental portions of the surface high complex of any run yet.  Most model runs have advertised the surface high complex as being too top heavy to really get the job done.  A balance is so important with that feature.

[Front Ranger]

I just went back a week ago on here and there were lots of posts drooling over a very cold pattern starting right now and going into this weekend.     Almost the same discussion.  

 

Way to go, Tim! Ever vigilant.

 

There are differences from a week ago. Much better model consistency (aside from the Canadian) over the last couple days, for one thing. Also, much better cold air source potential in North America. No model was showing anything close to the air mass the models are showing for AK/Yukon/BC now.

 

But hey, let's just ignore that because weenies were being weenies a week ago, as they always are.

[snow_wizard]

The main trend I see is on the GFS/ECMWF for the Aleutian ridge to be stronger, more amplified. If that continues we're going to see a significant blast. We won't know that until maybe 00z Friday. Onto 6z!

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 23 minutes

 

The amazing thing is a white Christmas is still on the table with less than 10 days to go.  It sure hard to imagine not seeing lowland snow at some point with all of these cold troughs on the horizon.

[FroYoBro]

I just went back a week ago on here and there were lots of posts drooling over a very cold pattern starting right now and going into this weekend.     Almost the same discussion.  

Nice detective work. 

[TT-SEA]

The main trend I see is on the GFS/ECMWF for the Aleutian ridge to be stronger, more amplified. If that continues we're going to see a significant blast. We won't know that until maybe 00z Friday. Onto 6z!

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 23 minutes

 

 

I know we have mentioned it before... but we are not going to see a significant blast regardless.    Not this month.    

[snow_wizard]

Way to go, Tim! Ever vigilant.

 

There are differences from a week ago. Much better model consistency (aside from the Canadian) over the last couple days, for one thing. Also, much better cold air source potential in North America. No model was showing anything close to the air mass the models are showing for AK/Yukon/BC now.

 

But hey, let's just ignore that because weenies were being weenies a week ago, as they always are.

 

I think I would have to label him the scrooge of the forum.  I can't ever recall Tim being positive about one of these possible events.

[Deweydog]

Thundersnow would be nice...

[Timmy]

I just went back a week ago on here and there were lots of posts drooling over a very cold pattern starting right now and going into this weekend. Almost the same discussion.

I feel like Jesse's spirit lives on inside of you. Since he has been gone, you have become extra pessimistic and cynical.

[TT-SEA]

I think I would have to label him the scrooge of the forum.  I can't ever recall Tim being positive about one of these possible events.

 

 

You are not paying attention then.

[Front Ranger]

I know we have mentioned it before... but we are not going to see a significant blast regardless.    Not this month.    

 

Mother Nature loves a challenge...

 

But really, it's not very smart to make definitive statements like that. Especially when there is clearly some potential.

 

The Euro was the first run in forever that actually showed legit Arctic air making it into the lower 48. Obviously doesn't mean it will happen, but contrary to some beliefs, it actually is possible this month.

[TT-SEA]

Mother Nature loves a challenge...

 

But really, it's not very smart to make definitive statements like that. Especially when there is clearly some potential.

 

The Euro was the first run in forever that actually showed legit Arctic air making it into the lower 48. Obviously doesn't mean it will happen, but contrary to some beliefs, it actually is possible this month.

 

 

OK.  Fair enough.   Very low chance of an arctic "blast".

[Gradient Keeper]

I may not get to freezing a few days if the 00z EURO is right, not with 850mb -10c at The Dalles, colder at 925, and strong east wind.

[Front Ranger]

OK.  Fair enough.   Very low chance of an arctic "blast".

 

Much more reasonable.

 

I would say decent chance that several people on this forum (besides you) see snow in the next 10 days. Pretty sure there hasn't been this much potential around Christmas since 2008. Miracles can happen.

 

We may have the strongest PV of all time during one of the most potent El Ninos on record, but exceptions to rules do occur. 

[TT-SEA]

Much more reasonable.

 

I would say decent chance that several people on this forum (besides you) see snow in the next 10 days. Pretty sure there hasn't been this much potential around Christmas since 2008. Miracles can happen.

 

We may have the strongest PV of all time during one of the most potent El Ninos on record, but exceptions to rules do occur. 

 

There was snow on Christmas in 2012.   Actually there was potential for a major overrunning event that year.    Much better potential than this year.  

[TT-SEA]

I feel like Jesse's spirit lives on inside of you. Since he has been gone, you have become extra pessimistic and cynical.

Where did he go?

[Front Ranger]

There was snow on Christmas in 2012.   Actually there was potential for a major overrunning event that year.    Much better potential than this year.  

 

Hmm, I know you got snow but I don't believe there was much if any snow in the lowlands was there? And I don't remember a whole lot of realistic potential that year...could be wrong.

[Deweydog]

Much more reasonable.

 

I would say decent chance that several people on this forum (besides you) see snow in the next 10 days. Pretty sure there hasn't been this much potential around Christmas since 2008. Miracles can happen.

 

We may have the strongest PV of all time during one of the most potent El Ninos on record, but exceptions to rules do occur.

Portland was snowbound chaosville four days after Christmas in 2009 and I'm fairly certain 2012 had a lot of similar long range hand wringing as well. The only difference is this year we don't know quite what will happen, only rationalize best case scenarios 7-10 days out.

[BLI snowman]

Top to bottom, coldest Euro run yet.

 

Eat your heart out, January 2002!

[Deweydog]

Where did he go?

He joined a Seahawks forum.

[snow_wizard]

​I ended up with a 42-33 high / low today with 0.20" of rain.  Not too far from snow and a lot better than last December for sure.

[BLI snowman]

Mother Nature loves a challenge...

 

But really, it's not very smart to make definitive statements like that. Especially when there is clearly some potential.

 

The Euro was the first run in forever that actually showed legit Arctic air making it into the lower 48. Obviously doesn't mean it will happen, but contrary to some beliefs, it actually is possible this month.

 

Tim's usual putridness notwithstanding, he's probably got a pretty decent handle on this pattern's evolution. The chances for a major arctic airmass to enter the region in the next two weeks look rather microscopic at this point. We'd probably have a better chance with an arctic airmass that comes in from the WNW down from Alaska, a la February 9-10, 1999.

 

We're working with the hand-me-downs of hand-me-downs and at best are likely going to be left scrapping for some 5 minute snow shower regurgitations  of the likes of the Olympics and Coast Range. 

[Front Ranger]

Eat your heart out, January 2002!

 

If January 2002 had happened around Christmas, and global warming didn't exist, it would have been much more memorable.

[Front Ranger]

Tim's usual putridness notwithstanding, he's probably got a pretty decent handle on this pattern's evolution. The chances for a major arctic airmass to enter the region in the next two weeks look rather microscopic at this point. We'd probably have a better chance with an arctic airmass that comes in from the WNW down from Alaska, a la February 9-10, 1999.

 

We're working with the hand-me-downs of hand-me-downs and at best are likely going to be left scrapping for some 5 minute snow shower regurgitations  of the likes of the Olympics and Coast Range. 

 

 

Coming through, loud and clear!

[Front Ranger]

Portland was snowbound chaosville four days after Christmas in 2009 and I'm fairly certain 2012 had a lot of similar long range hand wringing as well. The only difference is this year we don't know quite what will happen, only rationalize best case scenarios 7-10 days out.

 

2009 was kind of a freak thing and isolated strictly to the Portland area. 

 

But it goes to show...the highly unlikely can and does happen.

[TT-SEA]

Tim's usual putridness notwithstanding, he's probably got a pretty decent handle on this pattern's evolution. The chances for a major arctic airmass to enter the region in the next two weeks look rather microscopic at this point. We'd probably have a better chance with an arctic airmass that comes in from the WNW down from Alaska, a la February 9-10, 1999.

 

We're working with the hand-me-downs of hand-me-downs and at best are likely going to be left scrapping for some 5 minute snow shower regurgitations of the likes of the Olympics and Coast Range.

I just dislike propaganda and then the expectation that everyone buy into the propaganda. I don't dislike the love of cold and snow. I love cold and snow. But a real discussion is often derailed by delusion. You see the situation clearly. Matt always does. So does Jared. And, as I mentioned, I really like Rob's detailed analysis.