Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[OKwx2k4]

GFS has a monster southern slider and the east coast gets pounded. Looks like Jim Flowers may be right.

Not seeing it. What day? Unless you're talking about the rain that I don't need. Lol

[winterfreak]

Not seeing it. What day? Unless you're talking about the rain that I don't need. Lol

Storm around the 11th.

[OKwx2k4]

I saw it. Had to go to pivotal to see it. Nice arctic outbreak that run also.

[Snowlover76]

I saw it. Had to go to pivotal to see it. Nice arctic outbreak that run also.

I hope you get something in Oklahoma. I feel bad for you guys after what happened earlier this evening.

[OKwx2k4]

I hope you get something in Oklahoma. I feel bad for you guys after what happened earlier this evening.

Yeah. That game sucked. My hopes weren't that high though. We choke in big games. Lol. It's our M.O. at OU.

[winterfreak]

I'm a KU fan. Life could always be worse OKwx.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm a KU fan. Life could always be worse OKwx.

True man. Very true. I pull for our entire conference when they're not playing OU though. I feel bad for KU also. Both our schools are crushing it in basketball right now though.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I'm a KU fan. Life could always be worse OKwx.

 

Basketball is king at KU anyway, so if you followed that, you'd be having a good time, like OKwx2k4 mentioned.

[winterfreak]

 

Basketball is king at KU anyway, so if you followed that, you'd be having a good time, like OKwx2k4 mentioned.[/quote

Oh trust me I do and obsessively so as well. Just wish the football team was worth something.

[winterfreak]

True man. Very true. I pull for our entire conference when they're not playing OU though. I feel bad for KU also. Both our schools are crushing it in basketball right now though.

Between the basketball team and the overall solid performance of the KC pro sports teams it's been a good year.

[Money]

Nice storm showing up on 12z GGEM

[OKwx2k4]

Between the basketball team and the overall solid performance of the KC pro sports teams it's been a good year.

Yeah. Closest team to me in baseball is the Royals. Definitely a fan. They're also one of the most fun teams to watch play. A lot of their players came out of the farm team over here in Fayetteville.

[Tom]

Hope a lot of us can cash in on some snow later next week and before the big arctic plunge.  Should be an exciting week of tracking storm systems.  It'll be interesting to see how cold temps actually get when the arctic plunge hits.  Need to build that snow pack!

 

GEFS/EPS still showing big potential for a large storm by Day 10 (ish).  NAO/PNA relax during this period so still not writing off a nice cutter.

[winterfreak]

Nice storm showing up on the 348 he GFS hahaha. Other than that not much besides a warm cutter and a gulf low. Still have time I guess.

[Geos]

Looks like very slowly the GFS is correcting southward on that 9th system.

CMC is sweet. Looks to start as a Colorado Low.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

I like that storm above the day before as it comes out of Colorado.

[tim the weatherman]

Looks like very slowly the GFS is correcting southward on that 9th system.

CMC is sweet. Looks to start as a Colorado Low.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016010112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_36.png

either way this storm could go north or south or stay right the where it is.

[gosaints]

either way this storm could go north or south or stay right the where it is.

Without a doubt. Well played

[CentralNebWeather]

Watched the Jim flowers video today. He doesn't mention anything about ggem or gfs hinting at possible storminess at the end of next week. Since euro doesn't show it he won't mention it. I know it is Facebook but would like some comparison between models. Oh well. It is his page he can cover what he wants. For all I know he will be right.

[Money]

either way this storm could go north or south or stay right the where it is.

Welcome back Tim

[Tom]

Both GGEM/EURO ensembles seeing a southern Plains storm tracking near the Texarkana region and tracking NE up towards the OV/Lakes region.  Models are coming into a pretty good agreement of a phased storm somewhere nearby.

[tim the weatherman]

Both GGEM/EURO ensembles seeing a southern Plains storm tracking near the Texarkana region and tracking NE up towards the OV/Lakes region.  Models are coming into a pretty good agreement of a phased storm somewhere nearby.

look's like this storm could be a blizzard and if this agrees the ohio valley lakes region is going to be crushed so people in these areas needs to pay attention to the forecasts for watches and warnings also gem has the low ne of st louis mo at hour 222 has the low near terre haute in.

[tim the weatherman]

tom is on to this storm that I was looking at it on tropical tidbits and this storm blows up into a monster over the greatlakes and the ohio valley right into the mid atlantic and new England and up into Ontario Canada.

[jaster220]

 

tom is on to this storm that I was looking at it on tropical tidbits and this storm blows up into a monster over the greatlakes and the ohio valley right into the mid atlantic and new England and up into Ontario Canada.

 

 

TIm, could you post some of those Tidbit maps you speak of? Would love to see a picture of a monster over the GL's, only heard about some being in the lakes?

[Money]

either way this storm could go north or south or stay right the where it is.

What if it goes east or west?

[Niko]

look's like this storm could be a blizzard and if this agrees the ohio valley lakes region is going to be crushed so people in these areas needs to pay attention to the forecasts for watches and warnings also gem has the low ne of st louis mo at hour 222 has the low near terre haute in.

I could see fun times ahead. Hope this turns out into a monster Tim. It has been awhile since I have experienced a blizzard.

[Geos]

That storm definitely deepens quite rapidly as it lifts NE.

 

 

Still expect that Day 8 storm to come back south. No teleconnection support a cutter track.

Interesting outcome of the CMC. One massive storm on the East Coast and another one developing behind it.

 

[Tom]

Very odd to see both the GFS/EURO operational producing a western lakes cutter later next Fri/Sat...

 

00z EPS has it farther south and so do most GEFS members...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016010200/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_8.png

 

GEFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016010206/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_29.png

 

 

Both AO/NAO will be in negative territory and not much of a SE ridge to deflect this system to far NE.  I think the models are having a problem figuring out the what to do in the NE Pacific as the Split Flow fires up over the coming days.

[Money]

GFS takes it to western wisconsin

 

34 and rain for most people here

[Tom]

12z GGEM looking more like the ensembles and producing a southern Plains storm that in turn tracks up the southern Midwest into the OV.  The placement of a massive Arctic HP near MT/Dakotas would suggest a Cutter.  These are how major storms this time of year can dump snows from the Rockies up into the Lower Lakes region.  Hope to see the Euro start correcting towards its ensemble members.

[winterfreak]

GFS was ugly from beginning to end on that 12z run. Get missed north, south, east, and west hahaha. Models seem to really be struggling with the new pattern setting up.

[Tom]

GFS was ugly from beginning to end on that 12z run. Get missed north, south, east, and west hahaha. Models seem to really be struggling with the new pattern setting up.

Without a doubt.  The storm in the extended is prob the first one this season where KC stands a good chance of seeing significant snows.  Hope the Euro starts trending towards the GGEM.  GFS is out to lunch and having systemic issues.

[Tom]

Just look at the 12z GEFS run and see how big of a difference there is between it's operations and ensembles.  Clearly 12z GEFS have a southern storm track which in turn ejects NE up towards the OV.

[Tom]

The type of cold showing up Week 2 that covers as much real estate as being shown has not been seen in recent years.  Over the last 2 severe Winters, the nation was split in half with extremes.  The pattern evolving now looks to put the nation in the Deep Freeze for a long duration.  I don't think many people are ready for this type of cold.

[jaster220]

The type of cold showing up Week 2 that covers as much real estate as being shown has not been seen in recent years.  Over the last 2 severe Winters, the nation was split in half with extremes.  The pattern evolving now looks to put the nation in the Deep Freeze for a long duration.  I don't think many people are ready for this type of cold.

 

WHoops-There it is! ..to quote an infamous song lyric   Remember talking about this very thing back in the winter outlook thd - before we set December ablaze that is. On a negative note, there goes natural gas prices if JB is touting this to his clientele over at WxBell   

[Tom]

WHoops-There it is! ..to quote an infamous song lyric   Remember talking about this very thing back in the winter outlook thd - before we set December ablaze that is. On a negative note, there goes natural gas prices if JB is touting this to his clientele over at WxBell 

Nat Gas was a great play and still is...easy 40-50% move on the way.

[jaster220]

Nat Gas was a great play and still is...easy 40-50% move on the way.

 

Haha - I'm only a consumer, not a buyer / seller / trader unfortunately.  I checked back. Those posts I remembered were from the first week of November. Some of the ones you made look spot on if the next (10) days plays out as anticipated. Where did all our marshmallow roaster posters go now that it's chilly out?

[Money]

999 L in SE KS at hr 144 on euro

[Money]

Low goes right over Sheboygan or so

 

How does the snow maps look tom?

[Tom]

Low goes right over Sheboygan or so

 

How does the snow maps look tom?

Setting up NW of you...looks marginal in C WI...

 

2nd system behind it looks interesting as it hits So Cal with arctic air infiltrating the pattern.  Looks like the 1st lead wave sets up the pattern going forward.