Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 But there is a giant high to the north...If anything I would expect this system to cut south of I-70 and then up the East Coast. Here's the L at HR 96 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160111/00Z/f096/sfcconus.png There's no high even close to being in the picture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Even at HR 126, the high pressure is still wayyy up north http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160111/00Z/f126/sfcconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Oops, I was thinking of the 1040 high on the GGEM. The EURO and JMA run from earlier actually makes more sense given the pattern and teleconnections. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Five days out. Still a fluid situation. The way this winter has gone I wouldn't doubt a GFS like outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 GGEM ensembles are insane with several 985 L pressure systems in the area. Maps coming soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Oh this storm is gonna make for some interesting commentery this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 HR 108 http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016011100_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gemglb@gem007_108.png http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2016011100_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem017@gem020_108.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 UKIE has joined the party HR 96 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif HR 120 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 I wouldnt either but I don't like the GFS solution Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 The only thing I'm taking in from the models ATM is the fact that once again, the LRC/30- day cycle proved to a great forecasting technique and the models are honing in a strong storm system in the same region (s) this particular storm formed in previous cycles. The fact that each op run, and ensemble run, it seems this storm is trending stronger. It was a large storm in the LRC's cycle #1 and the 30-day cycle so I'm optimistic it will repeat again during this period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 UKIE has joined the party HR 96 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif HR 120 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gifUkie looks like the Euro and came south from 12z... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Might as well fire up a separate storm thread Geo's...looks like it will be a busy week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Ukie looks like the Euro and came south from 12z... Ukie never had a storm at 12z. It kept it northern stream dominant. Basically just a strong clipper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 The low does start to occlude on the GFS, but a bit too late. Need a slightly cooler scenario than 12/28. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 00z GGEM similar to the Euro and has a 990mb SLP in S IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Ukie never had a storm at 12z. It kept it northern stream dominant. Basically just a strong clipper. Ahhh.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Ukie looks like the Euro and came south from 12z... I like that track. High is further south which is good. Yeah I'm going to start a thread for this. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 I like that track. High is further south which is good.I'll fire up a storm thread... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Interested to see the euro run tonight. It was the only model to show a system cutting through the GL/MW areas and now the other models have followed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Interested to see the euro run tonight. It was the only model to show a system cutting through the GL/MW areas and now the other models have followed. Yup, so the King Euro may have taken the first step sniffing this storm out 2 days ago.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Let's all travel over here>>> http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1156-115-116-winter-storm/ Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11, 2016 Report Share Posted January 11, 2016 Instead of cold and dry maybe we should of called it cold and a couple doses of powder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Lezak starting to give up on winter here already. Not a good sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Some interesting notes on this week's AO Update from AER: The models are now coming into better consensus for a stronger pulse of energy transfer beginning next week that is predicted to initiate a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) at the end of the month. The overall negative AO and the elongated polar vortex favor cold temperatures in the middle of the continents including Siberia and the Plains of North America while and active storm track and vertical energy transfer favor more variable and seasonable temperatures in Western Europe and the United States East Coast. That above statement alone fits with this year's LRC and suggests storms to continue targeting the central CONUS and not ride up along the EC. We should see a pullback some time later next week... This pattern will be in place through next week but as the AO trends positive, temperatures are predicted to become more seasonable across the Central and Eastern United States. The AO will trend negative this week as geopotential heights continue to build across the Arctic. However next week the predicted strong pulse of vertical energy will force a positive trend in the tropospheric AO but a negative trend in the stratospheric AO. Once the SSW peaks the tropospheric AO will once again trend negative and the overall negative AO should persist longer than the initial negative AO event that is currently ongoing and is predicted to initiate the SSW. Therefore we are more confident that a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling event is underway (Cohen et al. 2007). The current strong negative AO is a tropospheric precursor that will initiate a strong burst of vertical energy transfer from the troposphere into the stratosphere the last week of January as seen in the vertical wave activity flux (WAFz) plot (Figure 7). More recent model runs have trended stronger with this energy burst and are indicating this energy burst will be of sufficient amplitude to initiate a SSW during the last week of January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'll have a hit of whatever the GFS is smoking tonight. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS is a big time weenie run for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 lol garbage model Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 lol garbage modelThey all are right now. Worst I've seen them all in a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS is a big time weenie run for us.Lol. Yeah. Crazy. Tomorrow it will be snowing in North Florida. Haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Lol. Yeah. Crazy. Tomorrow it will be snowing in North Florida. Haha.Seems pretty reasonable. Obviously not expecting a storm like what is currently depicted but cute of the GFS nonetheless. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS is a big time weenie run for us.00z Euro looks very similar as well. Looks like a west/east almost zonal pattern sets up later next week and with enough residual cold air around we could be seeing a snowy pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Lezak also saying Feb will be above average and wet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 The 12Z GFS goes crazy over Nebraska. If only this could partially play out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS 12Z Jan. 12.gif The 12Z GFS goes crazy over Nebraska. If only this could partially play out. If only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 We've seen that map more than once this winter for Nebraska. Won't be holding my breath for that to come true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 I have never seen the entire state covered in this much snow. Obviously this has little to no chance of playing out. It looks like it comes between the 18th and 21st and then a 2nd storm from the 23-24. Is any other forecast model even remotely showing storminess through this time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro now has an I-44 special cutting through Oklahoma into SE KS and SW MO. Not buying it yet but it is plausible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think what we can gather here is that there will be a significant storm. Somewhere. Where it goes, how much cold air it has and how strong it will be is still unknown but will become clearer with time. Several models have something around the 210-240hr time frame. Will wait to see if this verifies. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 12, 2016 Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 I think what we can gather here is that there will be a significant storm. Somewhere. Where it goes, how much cold air it has and how strong it will be is still unknown but will become clearer with time. Several models have something around the 210-240hr time frame. Will wait to see if this verifies.True. This is the first time the op euro has shown the storm with the correct orientation as far as the repeating pattern that it came from. That's why it raises my interest. We'll see if it's still there at midnight. As with the rest, will likely be further SE of the last few like it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS 12Z Jan. 12.gif The 12Z GFS goes crazy over Nebraska. If only this could partially play out. That's probably the most snowy map I've seen for Nebraska for the last couple winters. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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