Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Money]

Looking forward to 12z runs today. I know it's a long way off but every model has it and it's been very consistent 

[james1976]

.......

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/06Z/f384/acckucherasnowmw.png

WHAT?!

[Tom]

I remember this storm during the LRC cycle #2 it had a picture perfect trowal/neg tilt signature.  Hopefully nature will produce this signature again this time around.  

[james1976]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_252_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[james1976]

My God look at that beast. And the moisture feed from the GOM.

[Guest daniel1]

00z Euro Para...it's really building those heights in western Canada as SLP blossoms near TX Panhandle...

How about the euro ensembles?.

[Tom]

How about the euro ensembles?.

Farther NW...not really good for the sub-forum...

[NEJeremy]

I really wonder how accurate the snow ratios on pivotalweather are. I know they use the Kuchera method vs a straight ratio, but it seems like it spits out much higher amounts than Instantweathermaps for example. I don't think I have ever seen 4 feet of snow forecast for this area!!

[indianajohn]

GHD Blizzard I remember it was spitting out 30"+ day before the storm. It was a godd blizzard but it could of been epic I rememeber it didn't even come close to the forecasted totals. Did we have issues with dry slotting? Can't remember what the issue was.

[james1976]

If the gulf can remain wide open someone will be in business.

[Snowlover76]

Please let that happen. Although knowing my luck in Lincoln we will get rain.

[Tom]

GHD Blizzard I remember it was spitting out 30"+ day before the storm. It was a godd blizzard but it could of been epic I rememeber it didn't even come close to the forecasted totals. Did we have issues with dry slotting? Can't remember what the issue was.

Yup, N IN got dry slotted with that storm and the other variable that was going against the higher accumulations were the very high winds which can rip a snowflake apart as it falls to the ground.  I remember the flake size never got fat/fluffy but more grainy.  If it were to have more "fluff", then those totals would have been achieved.  50-70mph wind gusts won't help!

[hlcater]

Yup, N IN got dry slotted with that storm and the other variable that was going against the higher accumulations were the very high winds which can rip a snowflake apart as it falls to the ground.  I remember the flake size never got fat/fluffy but more grainy.  If it were to have more "fluff", then those totals would have been achieved.  50-70mph wind gusts won't help!

The winds do not look insane at this point, but around 30-40 mph gusts.

[Money]

Still gonna be a good storm on gfs

 

Developing at hr 192

[Money]

992 L in Colorado at hr 213 with a 1035 high in southern canada

[jcwxguy]

surface low is farther north this run at hour 228

[winterfreak]

Yep a lot warmer ahead of it this run.

[Snowlover76]

surface low is farther north this run at hour 228

Ah poo.

[Snowlover76]

Not worth fretting over yet though. It's a week+ hout

[hlcater]

need a stronger high in Canada to keep the low south

[Money]

Gfs is still showing 25-30+ inches of snow

[Money]

46.2 around gosaints area to be exact

[Iowa2015]

This storm a EPIC fail at this point too far north.

[james1976]

This storm a EPIC fail at this point too far north.

LMAO. Wow

[james1976]

Snowfall map if anyone has it. Thanks!

[Money]

It's showing a wide range of precip while the storm is developing sitting out in Colorado

 

This is before the main storm hits:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/12Z/f234/24hkucherasnowmw.png

 

 

Then the main storm cuts up towards Milwaukee

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/12Z/f264/24hkucherasnowmw.png

 

Total:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/12Z/f276/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Tom]

This storm a EPIC fail at this point too far north.

Are you being serious???  Who cares where the storm is tracking 7-10 days out.  The fact that the model is producing a storm consistently is THE only fact you should be looking at.

 

Track is only important 24-36 hours out. 

[hlcater]

start a thread? or give it time?

[jcwxguy]

start a thread? or give it time?

give it time

[Money]

GGEM at the end of the run. Has the storm finally getting going at the end as the northern stream clipper moves through and a 1038 H is in southern Canada

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[Snowlover76]

As long as there is still a storm right now we are good. No need to worry about track and p-type. Yet.

[Money]

This storm a EPIC fail at this point too far north.

 

How is it an epic fail? How is a storm showing 30-40 inches in some places an epic fail?

[CentralNebWeather]

I am excited to start the tracking of this next week. I am sure we will have many positive and negative feelings as it gets closer but it is excilerating to see the forum come to life again

[Money]

Gonna be a lot of ups and downs with this one like pretty much every storm.

 

People shouldn't get excited/disappointed until at least Friday next week when the storm starts to get in pretty good range (72-96 hours out) 

[winterfreak]

GFS has shown a marginal setup every run from the get go over here it seems like. Need colder air to come in much faster to give the rest of us a shot.

[Money]

GFS has shown a marginal setup every run from the get go over here it seems like. Need colder air to come in much faster to give the rest of us a shot.

 

"give the rest of us a shot" you mean pretty much you, right?

[hlcater]

GFS has shown a marginal setup every run from the get go over here it seems like. Need colder air to come in much faster to give the rest of us a shot.

As I saw it GEM is further south than the GFS is

[hlcater]

"give the rest of us a shot" you mean pretty much you, right?

and me to an extent

[Tom]

GGEM at the end of the run. Has the storm finally getting going at the end as the northern stream clipper moves through and a 1038 H is in southern Canada

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

That northern feature that zips across the border will be an important player as well.  It will determine the placement of the cold air dome building south of Hudson Bay.

[Iowa2015]

This storm needs more of a southern track then currently hopefully allowing colder air to come in faster while still having a wide open gulf. Current track a snooze Only positive currently it's still ways out hopefully things change for the better giving everyone more of a shot at this storm.