Money Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Nice 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Thanks Tom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Maybe that first wave shifts south and that will be my decent snow and not the main show Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Phase 8 on the Euro showing up Day 8-10...good bye to the torchy pattern...I knew that building the snow pack to the NW of the sub-forum would pay dividends as the Winter matures. We are seeing a classic example of this now as heights rise over a deeper snow pack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Ugly ice and sleet signal down here. Not what we need. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Arcitc attack still being advertised on the Euro over the fresh snow pack...day time highs in the single digits over parts of NE/IA/Dakotas/MN on NYE... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 There must be some ice and sleet to the south of snow. Otherwise I would expect more snow from southern Iowa into Illinois. Yes, looks like Iowa could get hit hard with ice if the Euro is right. Precip moving in with temps below freezing but 850s above 0. http://i.imgur.com/rJ06H8T.png http://i.imgur.com/CL4dvst.png http://i.imgur.com/myORMqd.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Thanks for posting the maps Bud. Here's the graphic showing MJO phase 8 temperature tendencies. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro has been showing ice for several runs now. Could be a nasty day for many if this pans out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 can't wait for some more heavy rain... congrats to those in NE though.looking good, no way I get anything more than a sloppy inch from this (doubt I even get that much tbh.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z Euro full run....OMG yes please!! I'm near Rochester, MN and that absolutely bullseyes my area. Would be awesome to see! Also, temp profiles look favorable, anyone know what the ratios look like during this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Ice in s wi also? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Is this still a Monday Afternoon/night system for Eastern IA, WI, and IL? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Just look at all that moisture transport from the GOM into the system. Looks like some sub-tropical moisture feed as well. This is going to be one heck of a storm with an abundance of qpf. Fun stuff to say the least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 +AO, neutral NAO, -EPO and neutral PNA....This in and of itself suggests that there may be more of an eastward shift to come. Specifically the neutral pna. Seeing the Euro start making moves is also a plus in that direction. Just wish we all had a little more cold air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 I have gotten in to watching Jim flowers Facebook video updates several times a day. He is not a lover of the gfs. Jim Flowers KMTV MeteorologistQuote:GFS out to lunch, euro in and continues trend of past several days, old school agrees with euro, an upper air low is heading for St. Joe MO and southern Iowa. pardon the singing but big flakes falling as I'm recording this. Watch if you have time about 3 minutes in length. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 ^Why is every model trending towards the GFS solution then!? GEFS ensembles agree on baroclinic zone location(s) Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 ^Why is every model trending towards the GFS solution then!? GEFS ensembles agree on baroclinic zone location(s) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122312/gfs-ens_T2m_us_24.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122312/gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_24.pngThat's pretty much my question as well. An outlier is an outlier regardless of which model it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 A little comic relief. 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naddan85 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 THIS TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH ANDEAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...AND IF THAT FARTHER SOUTH/EAST TRENDCONTINUES...WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION.HOWEVER...MORE SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY DROPPING INTO MEAN WESTERNTROUGH POSITION MAY AID IN KICKING LOW MORE NORTHERLY WITHTIME...AND CLOSER TO OUR AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IN TIME WHICHSCENARIO WINS OUT. Latest from OAX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 I saw that. Most nws offices in the region that I have read don't want to jump on the gfs yet. We will see what is correct in the next 6 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 GFS is back NW and lacking snow only a band of 3-5 in Iowa/W WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 18z gfs looks weaker in places and appears to be northwest of 12z run. Not that we should ever trust 06 or 18z models. Maybe I am not reading it correctly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 18z GFS looks almost identical to 12z and actually shows little to nothing for Nebraska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 18z GFS looks almost identical to 12z and actually shows little to nothing for Nebraska.It looks nothing like 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro ensembles appear east of the operational Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 It looks slower like the Euro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 It looks nothing like 12zHow do you figure? Aside from the storm tracking a tad further west into IL the output is exactly the same on the western side of the Low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 It's definitely warmer this run though. Not a trend we want to see but it's the 18z so we'll see. Concerning given the positive trends we've seen the last few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 I feel bad for my Nebraska folks, especially if the 18z were to pan out. Yuck. Snowhole in full effect according to instantweathermaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 This does not look right..especially around Northern IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Ive seen a few models that paint up to 6+ for Lower MI, what is that from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Ive seen a few models that paint up to 6+ for Lower MI, what is that from?Tropicaltidbits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Big step backwards.http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=150. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Gfs back to the icestorm look for lots of.folks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Tropical tidbits site and instant weather maps site show differences on the 18z gfs. Someone explained that recently but I remember what the issues between the sites can be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Tropical tidbits site and instant weather maps site show differences on the 18z gfs. Someone explained that recently but I remember what the issues between the sites can be.Thats alot of ice on the tropicaltidbits. Sleet as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z euro para Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Thats alot of ice on the tropicaltidbits. Sleet as wellKinda was figuring that. Wonderful...can't wait. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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