12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Scott26]

I'm leaning more towards the southern end of guidance right now tho

Because you get more snow in your backyard. I agree with you actually, but I will use a meteorological reason to back myself up. I think intense convection in the south will cause this low to end up being on the southern end of guidance. This is very similar to the storm last year around Christmas which trended south last minute and also had intense convection and tornadoes in the south. 

[Money]

Everything has been south with this storm and it's been colder than models have thought so far. And I completely agree with you about convection issue and I think that's why nam is having issues

[gosaints]

I can buy a further south track but think the gfs is to cold. Not talking at the surface. I personally feel like a rgem like outcome.might be in play

[Tom]

It would be different if this system were to phase with the northern jet, but its not...then we would be seeing this storm shift NW...

[bainbridgekid]

Pretty incredible to see warnings all the way from the Mexican Border to the Northern tip of Maine.

 

This is one hell of a storm.

 

[ToastedRavs]

If anyone wants to make a guess as which town will get the most snow from this storm, I started another thread. Just for fun. Only 80 mins left before deadline

[Jaycee]

Think most recent runs of the Canadian were correct. Looks like Eastern Iowa is the true winner, new Rapid Refresh absolutely pummels the eastern half of the state and leaves me in the dust.

[Money]

Anyone have the link to 24 hr rap?

[hlcater]

how about the cmc with 22in of snow?

[Tom]

Latest RAP...some of that is mixed in N IL...interesting thing is, as the storm deepens moving into S MO, it tugs down colder air into IL/WI/IN

[hlcater]

How did the HRRR/RAP do in North texas and NM?

[Geos]

GFS trending E.USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_042.gif

 

That's quite a move south...

 

Winter storm warning here until 6pm tomorrow. Ice forecast in the grids until that time.

 

I don't necessary side with more southeast bleeding of the track, but I can see where the cold air is more stubborn to move out.

 

I gotta take a look at that GFS data and see if it is on to something with the snow accumulations further south.

 

Ice area is moving south a tad.

 

 

[Geos]

Down to 33/26° currently.

[Madtown]

Same as the November storm....ended up well south of prediction. Heaviest was predicted 40mi north of Madison ended up on the boarder.

[NEJeremy]

Not sure on this model but I did see the Texas panhandle got hosed. Last I saw they were only at 2" in Amarillo this afternoon when they were supposed to get 16-18". They still had all the insane wind though.

 

How did the HRRR/RAP do in North texas and NM?

[Iowa2015]

Wow Those Snow totals for Eastern Iowa Cha Ching This going to be amazing Storm Now not buying we come any where close to those total's Esp with all the place's that have already Busted big time that we"re expecting amazing Snow totals,

[bainbridgekid]

Down to 33/26° currently.

Nice.

 

39/33 here in Evanston with a brisk wind.

[bainbridgekid]

Not sure on this model but I did see the Texas panhandle got hosed. Last I saw they were only at 2" in Amarillo this afternoon when they were supposed to get 16-18". They still had all the insane wind though.

 

I don't know about Amarillo proper, but I've seen some pictures of drifting snow around Amarillo that made it look like they got clocked pretty good.

 

[Money]

Gfs ensembles are locked in with op gfs

 

Not surprised

[gosaints]

Gfs ensembles are locked in with op gfs

 

Not surprised

One would hope so basically 24 hours out they should be in step

[Money]

HRRR hammering southern wisconsin and eastern Iowa with snow

[hlcater]

great!

[gosaints]

This place gonna get fun...

[MarcusBeier]

I find it amusing, hillarious and extremely frustrating that of that entire map, the 4 county METRO DETROIT weather office stays off of any type of advisory. This is dangerous to the people who live here as they are falsly believing this storm has no impact on them

[Money]

This place gonna get fun...

FYI I'm breaking down the 18 hr hrrr

[East Dubzz]

It's weird. We have a Winter Storm Warning around here and I think people are underestimating this. Maybe it's because there is no school. Either way, I am pretty worried about my trek to and from work tomorrow.

[gosaints]

FYI I'm breaking down the 18 hr hrrr

Lol... It probably has chicago getting plastered in snow at that range

[Money]

Lol... It probably has chicago getting plastered in snow at that range

Both RAP and HRRR showing surface low south like gfs/ggem which is what I'm looking at. Usually it's on the northern end of guidance at this range

[bainbridgekid]

It's weird. We have a Winter Storm Warning around here and I think people are underestimating this. Maybe it's because there is no school. Either way, I am pretty worried about my trek to and from work tomorrow.

I've never felt so underwhelmed about a Winter Storm Warning in my life. Feels pretty weird.

[bainbridgekid]

It'll be interesting to track the low on the SPC Mesoscale Analysis page.

 

~999mb about to cross the NW corner of Louisiana right now.

 

The key will be whether it stays consolidated or becomes double barreled. If it stays more consolidated, it should track more SE, while a double barreled low would loop back NW.

 

Current 850mb and 925mb temps are -4 over Chicago and -6 over Omaha.

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl#

[East Dubzz]

I've never felt so underwhelmed about a Winter Storm Warning in my life. Feels pretty weird.

 

Part of it, for me, is because I usually track these types of things days or even a week in advance. I just started, and haven't been following it super close until today. I'm sure I'll be more into it when the storm starts.

[bainbridgekid]

Part of it, for me, is because I usually track these types of things days or even a week in advance. I just started, and haven't been following it super close until today. I'm sure I'll be more into it when the storm starts.

I've been in Chicago for 9 days and have been tracking this storm since before I left, so that's not an issue for me. 

 

I'm just afraid the strong onshore winds will mess with the low level cold and give me a whole lot of 33-35 degree rain. Going to be really close though.

[East Dubzz]

I've been in Chicago for 9 days and have been tracking this storm since before I left, so that's not an issue for me. 

 

I'm just afraid the strong onshore winds will mess with the low level cold and give me a whole lot of 33-35 degree rain. Going to be really close though.

That's also a difference for me. I will be getting a winter storm for sure, it's more just a matter of what type of precipitation will fall.

[GDR]

Terry swails says you can't go against all the trends and might be favoring the GFS camp

[Geos]

I've been in Chicago for 9 days and have been tracking this storm since before I left, so that's not an issue for me. 

 

I'm just afraid the strong onshore winds will mess with the low level cold and give me a whole lot of 33-35 degree rain. Going to be really close though.

 

Here's a piece of information that is significant. The mid-lake buoy east of here in the middle of the lake is sitting in water that is 46°, but the air temperature is 35° currently. CAA is definitely dampening the effect of those warm waters. Dewpoints are just as low along the immediate lake front as they are here.

 

 

Also link to storm tracks - so we can keep an eye on the path wrt to the model tracks.

http://meteocentre.com/tracking/track.php?area=na&mod=compar&run=12&range=short&lang=en

[ToastedRavs]

0z hrrr keeps the southeast shift going. Has heavier bands from emporia, ks to muscatine, IA. I think it's counting sleet and freezing rain in that, however

[Geos]

The GFS with the heavy snow in southern WI is really interesting. I picked Madison to study more on it and since it was the bulls eye for 18".

 

Between 27>30 hours the column cools for MSN. It gets really close to sleeting and then the heavy returns move in and the 700mb level falls.

 

 

Then to this.

 

[Money]

Rap showing snow in southern wi as well with the low down to. 990 in s mo

[Geos]

It'll be interesting to track the low on the SPC Mesoscale Analysis page.

 

~999mb about to cross the NW corner of Louisiana right now.

 

The key will be whether it stays consolidated or becomes double barreled. If it stays more consolidated, it should track more SE, while a double barreled low would loop back NW.

 

Current 850mb and 925mb temps are -4 over Chicago and -6 over Omaha.

 

pmsl.gif

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl#

 

There's no way to project the general direction that low is heading in real time is there? Probably just watch where the height falls are at.

[bainbridgekid]

There's no way to project the general direction that low is heading in real time is there? Probably just watch where the height falls are at.

I've always struggled trying to project low tracks with pressure/height falls. Seems to be misleading much of the time.

 

That map updates every hour though and is usually pretty accurate.