January 2016 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

12z RGEM starting to get in range and picking up on some nice LES totals in SW MI.  Showing nice lake plume/squall that has a good chance of dumping some heavy snows.

 

You can easily fluff up these totals 2x or more...

 

 

Yeah, looking pretty good for Berrien Cnty and Michiana Region. IWX was more impressed per the overnight AFD:

 

 

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 440 AM EST SAT JAN 2 2016

 

THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS WAS DISTANT UPSTREAM

EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS STILL OVER THE ARCTIC REGIONS OF

NORTHERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL RACE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND SUNDAY

AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A QUICK ROUND OF MAINLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW

SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE EDGE OF A FRESH SURGE

OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH A BRIEF INTRUSION OF

ARCTIC AIR. AS HAS BEEN THE PATTERN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL

WEEKS...THE DOME OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA

QUICKLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF

THIS UPCOMING WEEK. IN THE INTERIM..A BRIEF WINDOW FOR FAVORABLE

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL EXIST. GIVEN FAVORABLE

UPSTREAM PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE MILD WATERS OF

LAKE MICHIGAN THAT ARE ABOUT 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME

OF YEAR...INCREASED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER

MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. CURRENT THINKING IS THE HIGHEST

SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER BERRIEN COUNTY AND RANGE FROM 2 TO 4

INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECT FURTHER INLAND.

[Geos]

Very nice day today with a temp around 30°. 

 

4km NAM showing a meso low feature on the west side of the lake on Monday afternoon. Looks interesting.

 

 

LOT saying 1-3" near the lake right now.

 

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING SHARPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A FETCH OF COLD
NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...SETTING UP A
SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. MUCH
OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...
FOCUSING A LAKE EFFECT BAND. THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BRINGING
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO NWRN INDIANA MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN SHIFT INTO NERN ILLINOIS MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...
EXPECT AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NEAR THE LAKE
FROM AROUND CHESTERTON...INDIANA TO EVANSTON ILLINOIS. WHILE THE
HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR THE
LAKE...LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY INTO THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF THE CHICAGO AREA IN NERN IL AND ACROSS LAKE AND
PORTER COUNTIES IN NWRN INDIANA. AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...THE
LAKE EFFECT PLUME WILL DISINTEGRATE WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING TO
SELY AND THEN SLY BY TUESDAY MORNING.

 

[Geos]

18z NAM has a definitely mesolow forming over the lake and they helps drive the snow bands inland.

 

 

Little accumulation starting to show up.

 

[Tom]

I'd take a fresh 1-2" from this and be happy...hopefully these stronger bands swing through and can wobble around for a few hours before winds shift southerly.

[BLIZZARD09]

Looks like LOT backing off on the lake snow accumulations

[Geos]

If a meso low gets going then the current forecast could get thrown on the windows. Those meso lows have a mind of there own. Seen them over perform big time before.

 

4km NAM looks good for the morning.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Went to Omaha for a Christmas yesterday and today. Very jealous of their snowpack. Good 6 inches or more on the ground in a lot of places. As you go west, very little in Lincoln, a little more towards York, then it dwindled down to almost nothing in central Nebraska. We sure need a share the wealth storm.

[Geos]

Latest weather graphic from WGN/Skilling.

 

[Tom]

LOT's take on the LES tomorrow...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=17914

[tim the weatherman]

hope to know that I am going back to the manor today so I will not be on this fourm until I get back on the internet.

[Tom]

Snow showers building in SE WI/NE IL...Soldier Field seeing some snow ATM...

[BLIZZARD09]

Hi Tom and Geos--long time since we spoke--love listening to you

[Tom]

Hi Tom and Geos--long time since we spoke--love listening to you

Glad to see ya back!  You might get some snow shower activity soon...lining up on the Dan Ryan Expressway right now.

[Tom]

Some embedded heavier snow showers showing up in SE WI...anyone getting underneath them??  I don't think these were in the forecast today.

[Geos]

Hi Tom and Geos--long time since we spoke--love listening to you

 

Glad to see you in here again! Welcome back. 

 

Some embedded heavier snow showers showing up in SE WI...anyone getting underneath them??  I don't think these were in the forecast today.

 

I was trying to figure out if those snow showers were from the front or are they left over moisture from Lake Superior LES.?

 

There's been mood snowflakes falling here since 10am.

[Geos]

NMM snowfall accumulations. LOT is still mentioning some light accumulations.

 

[Geos]

Getting moderate snow here. Already a dusting.

[Tom]

Getting moderate snow here. Already a dusting.

Same here...not as impressive as I'd hoped it would be but nice to see mod snow fly at times...

[Geos]

Same here...not as impressive as I'd hoped it would be but nice to see mod snow fly at times...

It came down heavy for 10 minutes. Probably got 0.7" or so.

[jaster220]

12z RGEM starting to get in range and picking up on some nice LES totals in SW MI.  Showing nice lake plume/squall that has a good chance of dumping some heavy snows.

 

You can easily fluff up these totals 2x or more...

 

 

NMM snowfall accumulations. LOT is still mentioning some light accumulations.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2016010312/wrf-nmm_asnow_ncus_41.png

 

NMM for the win!  

 

About 3-4" at the immediate lakeshore here in St. Joe and the final squall was awesome with a brief whiteout at the office. Vis literally was 200 foot or less!  Very sweet to see!

 

There were places in Van Buren Cnty with upwards of 5 inches around 7am this morning. Somehow they did better than the immediate lakeshore with this.

[BLIZZARD09]

lake snow not adding up to much here

[Geos]

Looks like Tom is right under the 20dbz+ returns now.

 

Flurries continue here with a few breaks in the clouds.

[Tom]

Looks like Tom is right under the 25dbz+ returns now.

Yes!  Getting some pretty good rates IMBY...nice fatty flakes for sure...fresh coating OTG

[james1976]

Clipper parade showing up on GFS.

[Geos]

Clipper parade showing up on GFS.

 

There's some really nice ones on there.

I see a couple weak waves on the GGEM Day 9 or so.

[james1976]

DMX talking snow, wind and bitter cold.
http://kamala.cod.edu/ia/latest.fxus63.KDMX.html

[westMJim]

We now have 4 days into the record books for January 2016.  And here in GR we now have a mean temp of 27.4° and while this is much colder then it was in December we are still running +2.4° (after a cold night last night that will drop) The low of +10° at the airport was the coldest by far for this winter (so far). GR has recorded 1.2” of snow this month and the total for the winter is still only at 7.2”  and we have 2” of ice/snow on the ground. 

[Geos]

It's running +0.6° currently for the month, which is nothing special. If the nights would have had less clouds then it would be even lower. 14° this morning. Sitting at about 30° right now.

Snow/ice pack is not budging and I think it will hold up straight into next week.

[gosaints]

It's running +0.6° currently for the month, which is nothing special. If the nights would have had less clouds then it would be even lower. 14° this morning. Sitting at about 30° right now.

Snow/ice pack is not budging and I think it will hold up straight into next week.

La Crosse +6.5  Rochester +2.6.   Should go up considerably through friday before the big plunge

[Tom]

I've never seen an off the chart AO run...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[Tom]

06z GFS...loading up the snow near the Lakes next 10 days...boring???  For some yes, but that's the way nature is going to play...

 

 

[Tom]

Latest (nowcast) CFSv2 run for January...looks like most of the Nation below normal...what happened here???  Debacle...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mMonInd1.gif

[gosaints]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/M7D7.gif

 

Next 7 days on the GFS ensembles.  

[gosaints]

And the following 7 days.  

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_6z/M7D14.gif

[westMJim]

This has turned out to be a very nice early January day here in west Michigan with lots of sun and the temp is now up to 37° here at my house. I will get out and go for a nice walk outside today. I will play it on the  conservative  side for next weeks expected cold and snow. Mother nature has a way of doing what she wants to do and for some reason she does not look at any of the weather models (or if she does she just laughs at them) with the little snow we have had this winter so far I have not even bought gas for the snow blower yet (I may get some before next week just in case) 

[Geos]

Easy to say the next 7 days will be below normal for all of us in the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.

+pna, -nao, -ao, -epo will make sure of that.

[gosaints]

Easy to say the next 7 days will be below normal for all of us in the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.

+pna, -nao, -ao, -epo will make sure of that.

Below normal yes sure but no anything like what was being painted previously.  We are gonna have large positive departures today through saturday

[westMJim]

Fun fact….So far this winter season Grand Rapids has only received 7.2” of snow. Well in looking back the last time Grand Rapids made it to January 6^th with less then 7.2” of snow was way back in the winter of 1931/31 when as of January 6^th 1932 Grand Rapids had only received 7.1” of snow. There were no true arctic outbreaks in either January nor February of 1932 But there was in March of 1932 and in that March GR received 25.3” of snow. The total snow fall for the winter of 1931/32 at GR was 41.1”  a couple of recent winters that got this deep with little snow fall are 2011/12 and 2012/13 when in both winters only 9.8” of snow fell by January 6^th the season snow fall for those winters was 51.2 in 2011/12 and 66” in 2012/13 

[Geos]

Below normal yes sure but no anything like what was being painted previously.  We are gonna have large positive departures today through saturday

 

It's the lows that are killing us. Today is the first day it's broken above freezing since the sleet storm.

[gosaints]

It's the lows that are killing us. Today is the first day it's broken above freezing since the sleet storm.

Sure and lows are also used to calculate temperature departure.