January 2016 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

I am still sick as can be with Bronchitis. I was up coughing all night last night.  Not sure if tonight will be much better or not.  We have at least postponed out trip to Florida we were going to leave Saturday but have now pushed it back to the last week in January

[westMJim]

Here at my yard I am now closing in on 10” of snow of the ground.  One of the reason for that snow is it knows I do not feel good and so it will now snow a lot for the next week or so. In fact GRR is very gun ho on the lake effect for Sunday into Tuesday of next week

SlimJim

[Geos]

I am still sick as can be with Bronchitis. I was up coughing all night last night.  Not sure if tonight will be much better or not.  We have at least postponed out trip to Florida we were going to leave Saturday but have now pushed it back to the last week in January

 

Sorry to hear you have bronchitis. Haven't had that since I was in junior high. Hope you feel better soon!

Probably staying out of the cold is the best thing.

[Niko]

A brief warm-up this Friday and then, back to the deep freeze. Highs expected to top off in the balmy upper 30s Friday before tumbling.

[Niko]

Next week looks like a storm might be brewing. Lets see how that plays out.

[Niko]

Light snow here all day even thoughthe radar wasnt showing it. Picked up bout half inch of cotton so far.

I have been picking up snow almost everyday this week. Pretty amazing.

[Tom]

ORD should tack on 1, possibly 2 more sub-zero nights this month.  I'm sure some of those touting that its impossible to do that during a Strong NINO are scratching their head....didn't see this coming in January.  I believe ORD averages 7 or 8 sub-zero nights for the entire season.  Does anyone have that number?

What is MSP's avg???  They've tacked on numerous sub-zero nights already this month and more to come.

[Grizzcoat]

ORD should tack on 1, possibly 2 more sub-zero nights this month.  I'm sure some of those touting that its impossible to do that during a Strong NINO are scratching their head....didn't see this coming in January.  I believe ORD averages 7 or 8 sub-zero nights for the entire season.  Does anyone have that number?

What is MSP's avg???  They've tacked on numerous sub-zero nights already this month and more to come.

MSP 1981-2010  min temp 0F or less is 22.7 times  per calendar year. KMSP is at 5 such occurrences for JAN 16'-- the 30 yr avg is 9.5. They will easily beat that this month.http://files.dnr.state.mn.us/natural_resources/climate/twin_cities/msp_normals_means_extremes_page3.pdf

[Geos]

ORD should tack on 1, possibly 2 more sub-zero nights this month.  I'm sure some of those touting that its impossible to do that during a Strong NINO are scratching their head....didn't see this coming in January.  I believe ORD averages 7 or 8 sub-zero nights for the entire season.  Does anyone have that number?

What is MSP's avg???  They've tacked on numerous sub-zero nights already this month and more to come.

 

It's 7 days.

 

Definitely looks like a couple more this weekend.

 

It's not going to be above freezing long actually. Models are showing 12-18 hours.

[gosaints]

It's 7 days.

 

Definitely looks like a couple more this weekend.

 

It's not going to be above freezing long actually. Models are showing 12-18 hours.

Now thats something to get excited about!!

[Tom]

MSP 1981-2010  min temp 0F or less is 22.7 times  per calendar year. KMSP is at 5 such occurrences for JAN 16'-- the 30 yr avg is 9.5. They will easily beat that this month.http://files.dnr.state.mn.us/natural_resources/climate/twin_cities/msp_normals_means_extremes_page3.pdf

If things pan out the way I can see things progress, I bet they get into double digit subzero nights by end of February...many more "brrrr" nights ahead....

 

How many have you had so far?

[Tom]

Models are picking up on a burst of snow somewhere in the Plains/Midwest Saturday night ahead of the arctic front.  These situations could produce an exciting period of wind driven/fluffy snow.  With very high snow ratios, wouldn't be surprised to see 1-2", possibly 3" in spots.  Sometimes these fronts can produce convection.

[Grizzcoat]

If things pan out the way I can see things progress, I bet they get into double digit subzero nights by end of February...many more "brrrr" nights ahead....

 

How many have you had so far?

[Grizzcoat]

Not in MSP , but its where I spend quite a bit of time as its where I grew up. MSP has had 5 nights below zero this month and same for the winter. They will be double digits by end of Jan for mins at or below zero,,easily.

[Tom]

12z NAM...potential snows from arctic front...if the models continue to spit out some decent snowfall from this event...I might start a thread.  Whoever gets underneath this snow band will experience some fun snow fall.  Winds are supposed to be gusting between 20-30mph.

[Iowawx]

12z NAM...potential snows from arctic front...if the models continue to spit out some decent snowfall from this event...I might start a thread.  Whoever gets underneath this snow band will experience some fun snow fall.  Winds are supposed to be gusting between 20-30mph.

That's a nice solid event. Maybe it can get a bit more juice by the time it gets to IA/IL. Also wouldn't mind if it came a bit farther north.

[jcwxguy]

Not here but the first subtropical storm formed today in the east atlantic

Alex is now a hurricane 

[gosaints]

That's a nice solid event. Maybe it can get a bit more juice by the time it gets to IA/IL. Also wouldn't mind if it came a bit farther north.

Generally these artic front trend south in a normal winter, of course who knows this year

[Tom]

12z GFS...

[Tom]

I'll go ahead and start a thread for the Arctic Front snow system...

[NEJeremy]

we're going to be below zero Saturday night, maybe make it to 5 degrees on Sunday(although they keep lowering the highs), and then be back below zero on Sunday night. It's going to be a rough couple of days.

[gosaints]

we're going to be below zero Saturday night, maybe make it to 5 degrees on Sunday(although they keep lowering the highs), and then be back below zero on Sunday night. It's going to be a rough couple of days.

Shaping up to be a great cold and dry start to the week followed by moderation and more boredom.  

[Tom]

Shaping up to be a great cold and dry start to the week followed by moderation and more boredom.  

Yup, up your way get ready to hit the "snooze" button...but for the remainder of the sub-forum from say roughly I-80 and points south its going to light up.

[gosaints]

Yup, up your way get ready to hit the "snooze" button...but for the remainder of the sub-forum from say roughly I-80 and points south its going to light up.

LOL ok... should be epic.  Nothing from any model guidance I see says light up anywhere.  Except for maybe the northeast threading the needle.  

[Tom]

LOL ok... should be epic.  Nothing from any model guidance I see says light up anywhere.  Except for maybe the northeast threading the needle.  

No one said EPIC, multiple snow events...yes...check again...

[gosaints]

No one said EPIC, multiple snow events...yes...check again...

So your definition of lighting up is dry popcorn clippers?  Followed by pacific air???

[Tom]

So your definition of lighting up is dry popcorn clippers?  Followed by pacific air???

LOL...oh boy

[gosaints]

LOL...oh boy

You are nervous watching now multiple models flood the country with pacific air.....

[Tom]

Anytime it can snow, I'm sure many on here will take what they can get....am I wrong anyone???

 

GoSaints, I know your getting annoyed by the brutal cold in your back yard.

[Tom]

Anytime it can snow, I'm sure many on here will take what they can get....am I wrong anyone???

 

GoSaints, I know your getting annoyed by the brutal cold in your back yard.  Didn't see that coming now did ya?

 

You are nervous watching now multiple models flood the country with pacific air.....

Pull back is evident, always saw it coming...I'm not worried about a torch though...

[gosaints]

Anytime it can snow, I'm sure many on here will take what they can get....am I wrong anyone???

 

GoSaints, I know your getting annoyed by the brutal cold in your back yard.

Not at all annoyed by the cold currenty.  Really looking forward to how low we can go saturday and sunday night.  

 

September-December have made this stretch much easier...  

 

Wish we could have real january storm somewhere though.  Not just here. Anywhere.  East coast could have a perfect track this weekend but....... not enough cold air.

[Geos]

You know I look back at the prediction was the winter to start off mild; December, and that came true with some snow to boot. This month was predicted to be a transition month, which it has been. Actually it's been a bit more wintry than I thought it might be by this date. Next month is supposed to be the coldest and back loaded with snow. I see no reason to go against that prediction. For a super el Niño winter, it hasn't been too bad.

 

Going to have one thick base of ice after tomorrow's freeze up again.

[gosaints]

You know I look back at the prediction was the winter to start off mild; December, and that came true with some snow to boot. This month was predicted to be a transition month, which it has been. Actually it's been a bit more wintry than I thought it might be by this date. Next month is supposed to be the coldest and back loaded with snow. I see no reason to go against that prediction. For a super el Niño winter, it hasn't been too bad.

Yep you have had a solid winter all things considered.  Others obviosuly havent been so lucky.  Definetly not a spread the wealth type deal

[FV-Mike]

Yep you have had a solid winter all things considered.  Others obviosuly havent been so lucky.  Definetly not a spread the wealth type deal

It seems to run a line from Omaha to Detroit as to the people that had a decent winter considering it was a "super El Nino". Checking the reporting locations all are at seasonal average of maybe just an inch below. North or south of the line are running deficits.

[Niko]

It seems to run a line from Omaha to Detroit as to the people that had a decent winter considering it was a "super El Nino". Checking the reporting locations all are at seasonal average of maybe just an inch below. North or south of the line are running deficits.

Yes, I have at least 7inches on the ground now. True winter wonderland. Haven't checked seasonal snowfall so far as of yet, but I'm sure its pretty high up there.

[Snowshoe]

Much below the average snowfall to date. However, all that December rain ranks the Dec-Jan period as the wettest on record. It's been either warm and wet or cold and dry. 

 

 

[Maxim]

You know I look back at the prediction was the winter to start off mild; December, and that came true with some snow to boot. This month was predicted to be a transition month, which it has been. Actually it's been a bit more wintry than I thought it might be by this date. Next month is supposed to be the coldest and back loaded with snow. I see no reason to go against that prediction. For a super el Niño winter, it hasn't been too bad.

 

Going to have one thick base of ice after tomorrow's freeze up again.

meh, this month has been kinda up and down like a rollercoaster. I guess you could call it a transition month though. It's been colder than expected, which is why I'm not holding my breath on February being colder. We'll see though.

[Geos]

Yep you have had a solid winter all things considered.  Others obviosuly havent been so lucky.  Definetly not a spread the wealth type deal

 

I know you've had a bunch of smaller system, except the big one on the 28th of December. What's your deficit?

[NEJeremy]

yuck! our high temp has been trended down even further now on Sunday to 3 degrees and a low Sunday night of -11. That's pretty rare around Omaha to see double digit below zero temps. Some parts of the area are supposed to be colder and will flirt with record lows. Then it shows we're below normal for the rest of the extended through next Thursday.

[westMJim]

I will post this in a couple of topics as it pertains to one of the tie breakers in the winter snow fall contest

 

 

OK as Grand Rapids is expected to get rain today and thus no snow fall here is the daily total snow fall as recorded at the airport.  I do not know how you plan to separate the system snows from the lake effect but here is what we received

 

1/14   t

1/13   1.9”

1/12   4.7”

1/11   2.6”

1/10   2.1”

 

Total this period    11.3” 

To help break down the lake effect from system snow I looked at Milwaukee for the same dates  and here is their totals

 

1/14    0

1/13   0.6

1/12   t

1/11    1.6

1/10     t

Total    2.2”

Giving Grand Rapids  9.1” of lake effect for this event.  Another event will start on Saturday