January 2016 Observations and Discussion

[NEJeremy]

I'm booking a flight to DC right now  I'd love to experience a storm like this once in my lifetime.

 

.BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY
TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SLEET MAY MIX WITH
THE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE
95 BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC...AND 24 TO 30 INCHES IN THE
WESTERN SUBURBS. THE CITY OF WASHINGTON DC IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE AROUND 24 INCHES.

 

WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...BECOMING NORTH SATURDAY.

[Geos]

I'm booking a flight to DC right now  I'd love to experience a storm like this once in my lifetime.

 

.BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST

SUNDAY...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY

TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING

SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SLEET MAY MIX WITH

THE SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING EAST OF INTERSTATE

95 BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES IN THE

EASTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC...AND 24 TO 30 INCHES IN THE

WESTERN SUBURBS. THE CITY OF WASHINGTON DC IS EXPECTED TO

RECEIVE AROUND 24 INCHES.

 

WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50

MPH...BECOMING NORTH SATURDAY.

 

Awesome! Take lots of pics.

[NEJeremy]

Awesome! Take lots of pics.

Unfortunately Geos, you missed my sarcasm, lol  I won't be going to DC for this storm, but wish I could!

[Geos]

Unfortunately Geos, you missed my sarcasm, lol  I won't be going to DC for this storm, but wish I could!

 

Lol, I thought you put your foot down and you were actually doing it! It was very convincing. 

[westMJim]

@ Jaster220

 

Thanks.  At this time not sure how far down I will go on Saturday. Might stop just north of Louisville on Saturday and drive thru KY on Sunday instead of trying to make it to Bowling Green.  My sister in law lives in Fort Myers that why we go almost every year.  

[Geos]

MKX going with 1-2" of LES tomorrow.

[clintbeed1993]

I love how parts of the East Coast will likely match if not exceed many of our seasonal snowfall totals in 1 STORM!  They get a terrible winter pattern and still somehow manage to outsnow us.

[Tom]

MKX going with 1-2" of LES tomorrow.

If only temps were about 5F+ colder and this would have turned out to be much better.  I know we would eventually have a situation like this transpire sometime this season.  Marginal temps have been the theme this season when systems or LES try to materialize around Chicago.

[OKwx2k4]

I love how parts of the East Coast will likely match if not exceed many of our seasonal snowfall totals in 1 STORM! They get a terrible winter pattern and still somehow manage to outsnow us.

Lol. Yeah. And they will still manage to find something to gripe about when it's over. Lol.

[Tom]

Last minute shift north of the EC storm seems to be clocking NYC/BOS now with over a foot of snow.  If that happens, there will be millions more impacted by this system.

[Geos]

Last minute shift north of the EC storm seems to be clocking NYC/BOS now with over a foot of snow.  If that happens, there will be millions more impacted by this system.

 

The NAM has in consistent today with hitting NYC, but now Boston went from a dusting to 15"!

[jcwxguy]

Last minute shift north of the EC storm seems to be clocking NYC/BOS now with over a foot of snow.  If that happens, there will be millions more impacted by this system.

big difference in the 12km nam and the 4km nam at hour 60

[Tom]

big difference in the 12km nam and the 4km nam at hour 60

Yup, see that...however, RPM model also looks very similar to the 12km NAM...

[WBadgersW]

Im actually excited for 1-2" of LES tomorrow. We need a fresh coat of snow on the ground.

[bud2380]

The nam really shifted north. State college pa is currently under no advisories at all but the nam is blasting them with 20" of snow now.

[Geos]

The nam really shifted north. State college pa is currently under no advisories at all but the nam is blasting them with 20" of snow now.

 

Boston has no headlines and now the NAM is showing 15" for them. Now if the GFS comes in similar... 

[Tom]

Looks like the LES will start hitting the city just after 8:00am tomorrow.  Even though this won't be as exciting, it'll be nice to see the flakes fly tomorrow.

[Tom]

00z GFS has nearly 3FT in DC...just epic...2-3"/hr snowfall rates for about 12 hours straight...thundersnow!

[Geos]

Looks like the LES will start hitting the city just after 8:00am tomorrow.  Even though this won't be as exciting, it'll be nice to see the flakes fly tomorrow.

 

Yeah it will be nice to look at.

 

[hlcater]

almost 40 in in virginia WOW!

[Geos]

00z GFS has nearly 3FT in DC...just epic...2-3"/hr snowfall rates for about 12 hours straight...thundersnow!

 

Over that now. ~40" amounts now showing up in the Beltway. 48-52" amounts out towards Dulles. 

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160122/00Z/f066/acckucherasnowconus.png

[Tom]

Geo's, you should prob fire up a thread for the Mon/Tue system.  I think it is a broad enough system that could lay down snow from NE/IA/MN/N IL/WI.

[Tom]

Getting some LES ATM...it's a grainy snow and already coated the ground...looks like Cook county is getting the primary band right now...

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Surprised to see the radar lit up over Lwr Mich this morning. Had a steady light snow coming down in Marshall on an east wind. No real surface reflection, just part of the overall trough and big storm to our south I guess. My yard has a decent 1.5-2.5" snowcover so It's not a totally brown month at least. Gotta grasp for silver linings with what we've had so far.

 

Edit: I meant the way things have played out this month around here.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

Surprised to see the radar lit up over Lwr Mich this morning. Had a steady light snow coming down in Marshall on an east wind. No real surface reflection, just part of the overall trough and big storm to our south I guess. My yard has a decent 1.5-2.5" snowcover so It's not a totally brown month at least. Gotta grasp for silver linings with what we've had so far.

 

Edit: I meant the way things have played out this month around here.

I hear ya loud and clear!  I think Feb/Mar will be the back loaded months where we see appreciable snowfall from more organized systems.  I think from the WI/IL border on north they have seen snow OTG since the late Dec sleet/snow storm.  Everyone is itching for another big one.  The storm showing up Feb 1st-3rd is the next real chance we have....just hope it doesn't cut NW of here, although, I wouldn't be surprised given how this Winter has acted.

[Tom]

I already have close to 1/2" since 9:00am this morning...if it can snow like this all day I think 1-2" is possible.

[Geos]

Got 1/4" so far. Looks like some pretty solid light snow over Cook County right now.

 

MKX updated their snowfall map and there is a solid 1-2" along the lake now. LES parameters should get a little better as the day goes on.

[gabel23]

I want this forecast grid sometime in my lifetime, just incredible! 

 

This Afternoon

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. 

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow after 1am. Low around 19. Windy, with a northeast wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible. 

Saturday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow. High near 26. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

[WBadgersW]

That would be an amazing experience. At this point I would be happy with the 3-7" that's forecasted on Saturday. What location is that for?

[gabel23]

That would be an amazing experience. At this point I would be happy with the 3-7" that's forecasted on Saturday. What location is that for?

It truly would be amazing, I would just take a storm that drops 6-12" of snow! It's for Lyndhurst, VA. It's located south west of DC. That whole area has this in their forecast! 

 

[gabel23]

 

I want this forecast grid sometime in my lifetime, just incredible! 

 

This Afternoon

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 21. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. 

Tonight

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow after 1am. Low around 19. Windy, with a northeast wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible. 

Saturday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow. High near 26. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

 

That comes out to 31-45" of snow........

[Geos]

This is just in the next 15 hours. Wow!

Reading observation from the area, it sounds like this storm is coming in colder.

 

[Jaycee]

25.5" in 15 hours. Oh my god. I'd be in heaven. That is mind blowing.

[Maxim]

nah, they're only gonna get light accumulations according to Iowa2015.

[Geos]

A quote from a pro forecaster "MegaMike" on amwx.

 

 

The dendritic growth zone above Washington DC went from a depth of 3000 feet at 06z, to 5500 feet at 12z, and now it's 13000 feet (18z). 

 

Crazy stuff.

[gabel23]

A quote from a pro forecaster "MegaMike" on amwx.

 

Crazy stuff.

Wow, those ratios will be higher than they think......DC would have a good chance at 3'. 

[Geos]

Wow, those ratios will be higher than they think......DC would have a good chance at 3'. 

 

Can you imagine what the drifts are going to be like with 40-50mph winds!? Probably 10'

[Tom]

Jim Cantore has the best job!  I'd love to be a reporter out there in this massive storm.  Thundersnow is almost inevitable.

[Tony]

LE snow showers starting to get it's act together again. Could see some minor accumulations and maybe even some heavier bands of snow later this evening.