January 2016 Observations and Discussion

[NEJeremy]

Getting rain in January sucks. Getting rain at night in January is even worse, but that's what we're looking at tomorrow night here. 80% chance of rain and a low of 33. Then of course the extreme cold comes and no snow for a week it looks like.

[CentralNebWeather]

Went and got the kids from church. I don't remember ever seeing fog this thick in town. When I went in the country it was basically 0 visibility. I see Kearney is reporting 0 visibility. Crazy.

[james1976]

0.7" of snow this evening and still coming down. Nice little coating.

[Niko]

Beautiful day today, although, it did not seem as cold because of no wind. It could be zero outside and still feel nice. Its all about the WCF.

[Tom]

00z GFS stil advertising an active pattern near the Lakes and has 3 Clippers every 1-2 days...starting next Mon/Tue...not to shabby...it's going to get active around these parts.  Given the pattern and the way the blocking HP south of Greenland is shaping up, some of those can slow/dig and turn into a juicy system.

[Tom]

The trend in the models has been favoring a deeper -NAO/-AO regime. Both the GFS/EURO are agreeing quite well on this pattern.

[Tom]

Next big storm on the horizon that correlates with both the LRC/30-day cycle is showing signs of potential on the 15th/16th.  Both GFS/GGEM are showing 2 pieces of energy that should phase in the central states during this period.  Right now, not much of a storm, but I will be looking for it over the coming days.  This was a very dynamic storm in December that tracked out of SE CO and headed up towards the western Lakes.  With tons of blocking in toe, get ready to rock and roll!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010700/gfs_mslp_wind_us_36.png

[james1976]

GFS is very active!

[Tony]

And just think a couple days ago it virtually had nothing and everyone was jumping ship!

 

Edit: Almost everyone....the die hards still had faith.
 

[NEJeremy]

12Z GFS is disgustingly cold. Not very active too for at least these parts. If this comes true, I'll be begging for May before the end of January is done.

[gosaints]

12Z GFS is disgustingly cold. Not very active too for at least these parts. If this comes true, I'll be begging for May before the end of January is done.

First artic shot sunday through early next week has modified significantly on every model

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010712/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png

[Maxim]

I guess relative to how it's been this winter, the cold will seem brutal. Looks very run-of-the-mill, though.

[mlgamer]

Here it is Jan 7 and it has been raining here today.  I'm in the land that winter forgot....

[jcwxguy]

band of 35-45dbz moving north over eastern nebraska/western ia is snow. Rain is changing to snow here in north lincoln. 

[jcwxguy]

giant snow flakes here coming down really hard. Picture doesn't do it justice

http://i1228.photobucket.com/albums/ee442/jcwxguy1/Mobile%20Uploads/Screenshot_2016-01-07-14-10-32.png

[Tom]

giant snow flakes here coming down really  hard 

I guess you could post in the 1/8 - 1/9 storm thread...seems like this system became more complicated than earlier projections.

[Jaycee]

Mammoth snowflakes in Lincoln right now. It's like baseball's flying around. Each time one hits my windshield it looks like it got pelted with a snowball. Unreal!

[james1976]

33 and rain here!!! Waste of a system. Darn

[OKwx2k4]

Fun set of years for when the January AO dropped below -5. They are 1963, 1966, 1977, 1985, and 2010. All averaged negative for the remainder of the winter. (2009-2010 (Record negative winter) and 1977 (-7.433 value on Jan 15, 1977 was the record negative day for any winter) GREAT set of years. Combined they produce a 500 mb map just like the Euro and the JMA. Better late than never folks.

[ingyball]

I'm excited I might see a real winter in Columbus Ohio now, 2009-2010 in North Texas is the closest I've been so far.

[Niko]

Today was absolutely gorgeous. Sunny skies and temps were in the upper 30s to around 40F. Felt like early Spring. Also felt so nice being outside. Incredible for January standards. I actually still have patches of snow here and there.

 

Okay.....mother nature is probably teasing us right now and saying, you just wait and see what I have to offer. Get ready!!!!!!

[Tom]

Nice vigorous wave showing up this coming Tuesday near the Lakes.  This one has some potential to lay down a 3-6" band.  I think models are under playing this one.  There will be some high ratio snows from this system coming down out of Manitoba.

[westMJim]

Nice vigorous wave showing up this coming Tuesday near the Lakes.  This one has some potential to lay down a 3-6" band.  I think models are under playing this one.  There will be some high ratio snows from this system coming down out of Manitoba.

That wave might be the big player for snow here in SW Michigan. That might be the big lake effect event for this area for the winter we shall see. I always take the conservative approach 

[Tom]

That wave might be the big player for snow here in SW Michigan. That might be the big lake effect event for this area for the winter we shall see. I always take the conservative approach 

This is the LES event I was looking for in your region post-Clipper set-up.  I think you'll cash in on this one.

[Niko]

Another mild day today. Amazing! Topped off at 41F.

[Geos]

A damp and foggy day here today. Now the low has passed and a west breeze has started. 0.09" of rain total. 2" of ice on the ground still.

 

High 39°.

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

Amazing thing over here is 8 foot high piles in parking lots that are like rocks! Or they will be as soon as that arctic air shows up for a day or so. Never in all my life do I remember Sneet piles like this. Warm rain ain't even touching 'em.

[Iowawx]

GFS shows a storm around the 15th-16th, we may finally have a decent snowstorm that isn't a snow/sleet mix.

[Geos]

@ Niko

 

Amazing thing over here is 8 foot high piles in parking lots that are like rocks! Or they will be as soon as that arctic air shows up for a day or so. Never in all my life do I remember Sneet piles like this. Warm rain ain't even touching 'em.

 

I walked over a small pile today and I almost wiped out on it. Very slick, icy. Once there's a little snow over the ice that will give back the traction.

[hlcater]

GFS shows a storm around the 15th-16th, we may finally have a decent snowstorm that isn't a snow/sleet mix.

thats a nice storm right now  still too early to get my hopes up though. 

[james1976]

Anyone notice how active the GFS is??

[Maxim]

Anyone notice how active the GFS is??

Yeah, for the East Coast...

[Money]

Yeah, for the East Coast...

Has over 12 inches of snow for you

[OKwx2k4]

How's this working out for you Maxim?

 

I'm sure once we get into January, this thread will start to get some play. Once they start realizing that the pattern change to cold and snowy will never happen.

[Tom]

Started a thread for the Clipper on Mon/Tue...

[Tom]

Parts of E NE/IA/S MN and N/C WI have some decent snow cover going...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201601/nsm_depth_2016010905_National.jpg

[hlcater]

I still have most of my snow

[NEJeremy]

Parts of E NE/IA/S MN and N/C WI have some decent snow cover going...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201601/nsm_depth_2016010905_National.jpg

I have maybe 3-4", definitely not 10"+. I have had snow on the ground since the 24th though!

[Tom]

I have maybe 3-4", definitely not 10"+. I have had snow on the ground since the 24th though!

Your going to keep that snow around for quite a while, esp if that system next week can dump more snow out your way.  It beats the bare ground you've seen the last 2 Winters!

[Maxim]

How's this working out for you Maxim?

Cold? Yeah, it's coming, we all know that. Not really sure about that "snowy pattern" though. And besides, who would even want a cold and dry pattern? I sure as hell wouldn't.

 

What about your absurd calls about December being the exact opposite of the CFS forecast? LOL... I think you even mentioned it would end up being a December 2009 redux or something stupid like that. I've been much more accurate than you thus far, mainly because your cold and snow bias ends up clouding your judgement, so don't even try to incite an argument here buddy.